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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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VituVingiSana
#2421 Posted : Saturday, November 30, 2024 3:56:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though.

Tomorrow, a profit announcement is delivered KES 460m PBT, 77% growth YoY


Profit before tax ksh.312mn
Discount ya 30% Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2422 Posted : Saturday, November 30, 2024 6:02:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
DtheK wrote:
Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though.

Tomorrow, a profit announcement is delivered KES 460m PBT, 77% growth YoY


Profit before tax ksh.312mn
Discount ya 30% Laughing out loudly

https://kenyanwallstreet...105-amidst-rights-issue/

KQ ABP 4.26
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obiero
#2423 Posted : Saturday, November 30, 2024 6:23:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana
#2424 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2024 1:46:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
@Obiero Are you going to exercise all 60,000 HF Rights?
Utanunua zingine to support 100% subscription?

Mwango Spaces had the CEO. Impressive guy.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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MaichBlack
#2425 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2024 1:52:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#2426 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2024 1:54:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
DtheK wrote:
Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though.

Would you sell at current prices if you had some.

What's the likely price direction after new shares from the rights are loaded into CDS accounts and can be traded?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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VituVingiSana
#2427 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2024 2:42:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?

I would not sell based on what I heard.
I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth.
I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently.

*I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2428 Posted : Tuesday, December 03, 2024 3:58:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
Expect an oversubscribed event

KQ ABP 4.26
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MaichBlack
#2429 Posted : Wednesday, December 04, 2024 12:21:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?

I would not sell based on what I heard.
I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth.
I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently.

*I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains.

Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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VituVingiSana
#2430 Posted : Wednesday, December 04, 2024 1:45:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young
Good luck.

Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 smile

@mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do?

1. Sell.
2. Participate in rights issues.
3. Buy below rights price if price dips?

I would not sell based on what I heard.
I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth.
I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently.

*I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains.

Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant?
No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it.

Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable.

They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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