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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
VituVingiSana
#2401 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 7:23:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,371
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=obiero]On November 12 at the KQ pride centre expect an announcement of KES 7.4B loss before tax.. The profit will soon come, but later than anticipated due to delayed sale of subject craft https://www.standardmedi...s-200-mln-bridging-loan[/quote]
Every 6 months, you tell us the next 6 months will be better. Good luck. In the meantime, drop by the KK & KenRe threads.

I honestly had guesstimated the turnaround by H1, but got new data over the weekend that led me to place a sale of 26,400 shares today.. im still inside the plane, but lighter on baggage


Roho safi. I was like you. I used to believe that things would be better. I believed the hype. I believed the Management. I thought Naikuni was THE GUY.

I lost a lot on KQ. Even on KK (Segman days). As I read more of Buffett's writings, I realized that MANAGEMENT is key.
Ngunze may be a nice guy. He may be competent. The people (eg CFO) are either crooked, incompetent or both.

Segman had hubris. Later I found out that despite the objections of his senior staff (& board) he took outsized BETS (gambling not operations) on forex & oil prices to goose up the EPS.

Ohana is brusque but he reduced debt by reducing inventories (no speculation on the movement in prices), paid off (cheap but not when KES depreciates) FX debt, sold assets, cut costs, etc. He also lucked out that oil prices fell thus reducing the need for Working Capital.

KQ - There's no significant reduction in debt. The 'hard assets' [land, planes] will be sold but as the 2 new 787s [waiting for delivery] come in the debt will rise again. The most important point is that I do NOT trust the management. Period.

KK has a chance at being bought out at (revised) NAV or better. If not, it can remain profitable with price controls stifling competition.
KQ has little chance of being bought out in its current state. There's too much drama with debtors, pilots, employees, etc. It will have to restructure & the debtors will own the airline while the Shareholders will be wiped out.

In other words, sell ALL your KQ shares & look for a better firm to put your money in. Good Luck.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2402 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 7:29:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,371
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Lessons I have learned since 2011
- NEVER invest in a company with declining profits
- NEVER invest in a company making losses (KQ is squarely in this category)
- NEVER invest in a company where GoK has a controlling stake
- NEVER invest in a company with a P/E of more than 7. The lesser the better.
- NEVER invest in an illiquid stock
Those are just some of the basics I have gathered over the years. That approach has served me well and when I break any of those rules, I lose money

Applause Applause Applause

- NEVER invest in a company with a shady board/management unless you can buy control at a fair price, change the management & have the patience/fortitude.

I am OK with illiquid stocks & paying more than a 7 PER as long as you follow the other principles.
WB doesn't mind illiquid stocks coz he buys value not liquidity. Of course, at the right price, he can buy the entire firm and make it completely illiquid!
Rea, Williamson, Kapchorua, Unga.

On the PER, WB's partner Charlie Munger taught him that it's OK to pay a fair price for a great company. The PER may look great but PEG is more important. I missed out on Equity in the early days when its PER was consistently higher than its peers but its profits grew 100% p.a. for years!
(At one time or the other these had high PERs but while the PAT growth was excellent for an extended period. I am not saying they are still good buys.) Equity, Carbacid, ARM, Safaricom

I own a low PER stock with GoK control - KenRe - but generally I avoid GoK firms even with low PERs e.g. KenGen, KPLC (at the moment).
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Boris Boyka
#2403 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 7:59:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=obiero]On November 12 at the KQ pride centre expect an announcement of KES 7.4B loss before tax.. The profit will soon come, but later than anticipated due to delayed sale of subject craft https://www.standardmedi...s-200-mln-bridging-loan[/quote]
Every 6 months, you tell us the next 6 months will be better. Good luck. In the meantime, drop by the KK & KenRe threads.

I honestly had guesstimated the turnaround by H1, but got new data over the weekend that led me to place a sale of 26,400 shares today.. im still inside the plane, but lighter on baggage

Good brother I see finally you accept reality. Being heavy on KQ was tricky in such economical times.You have really enriched the brokers.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
tandich
#2404 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 8:19:29 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 199
I'll just leave this here: http://www.mckinsey.com/...companies_out_of_crisis
Of interest is the signs of distress
VituVingiSana
#2405 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 11:00:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,371
Location: Nairobi
Via @bankelele a blogger

http://bankelele.co.ke/2...-agm.html#comment-10539

@obiero - Where's your blog post on KQ's AGM?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
iris
#2406 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 8:53:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
tandich wrote:
I'll just leave this here: http://www.mckinsey.com/...companies_out_of_crisis
Of interest is the signs of distress


Applause Applause Great article for business owners
sl8r
#2407 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 11:31:06 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/20/2010
Posts: 69
Now its out in the wild, lets see what happens

Loss-making Kenya Airways announces two directors
obiero
#2408 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 11:45:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,317
Location: nairobi
sl8r wrote:
Now its out in the wild, lets see what happens

Loss-making Kenya Airways announces two directors

''Loss making Kenya Airways'' what a way to headline a story. Like referring to ''Yule mtoto alianguka KCSE''.. MOVE ON!
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
Gatheuzi
#2409 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 4:16:42 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
obiero wrote:
sl8r wrote:
Now its out in the wild, lets see what happens

Loss-making Kenya Airways announces two directors

''Loss making Kenya Airways'' what a way to headline a story. Like referring to ''Yule mtoto alianguka KCSE''.. MOVE ON!

These reporters have no feelings. Especially to KQ which cannot afford an office in Nation Towers unlike the good old DJ.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
VituVingiSana
#2410 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 5:02:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,371
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
sl8r wrote:
Now its out in the wild, lets see what happens

Loss-making Kenya Airways announces two directors

''Loss making Kenya Airways'' what a way to headline a story. Like referring to ''Yule mtoto alianguka KCSE''.. MOVE ON!
Ukweli ni ukweli. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
1,590 Pages«<239240241242243>»
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