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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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NSE wrote:Some 43M shares valued at Kes.876M were traded in 1,900 deals, up from 13M shares that were valued at Kes.637M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index shed 26.54 points to stand at 4843.90.
All Share Index (NASI) closed 1.00 points higher to stand at 137.72. That safcom volume is very telling. D&B has been offline for afew days they were back fully jana lets see how the week ends "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2010 Posts: 132
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Kenya is a Frontier Market, and he had the following to say about them; Quote:Mobius has found opportunities to buy in frontier markets, those that are too small or underdeveloped to be included in emerging-market indexes. He’s been adding to companies in Africa, including Kenya and Nigeria, on expectations their growth will be less impacted by turbulence in larger economies.
Frontier nations account for six of the seven biggest gains among global equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg this year, led by a 17 percent jump in Dubai’s DFM General Index.
The MSCI Frontier Markets Index rose 21 percent in 2013, outpacing the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 26 percentage points, the widest annual gap since 2005. Corporate earnings in the 26 countries that make up the frontier index have risen to the highest level in five years. Profits in the MSCI emerging index, which is dominated by the BRIC countries, are still about 11 percent below their 2011 high. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Investors cling to frontiers as emerging markets sink - http://www.reuters.com/a...r-idUSBREA140RL20140205
Quote:As emerging markets tumbled this year, the riskiest country groupings on the fringes have been a haven.
Small markets, local stories and in some cases pegged currencies backed by strong central bank reserves have shielded frontier markets from the worst of the emerging market rout.
The benchmark MSCI frontiers index has eked out a 1 percent rise in total returns this year, but that compares with a 7.4 percent loss in emerging markets and a 5.4 percent drop in developed stocks.
But frontier stocks and bonds rose in 2013, boosted in markets such as sub-Saharan Africa by a stronger growth outlook.
Frontier markets, so-called because of the relative difficulty of getting in and out of them, have won far less international investment than emerging markets and so have been less prone to the flight of speculative hot money.
Emerging stocks are a trillion-dollar market, of which $300 billion is in ETFs, compared with less than $20 billion under management in frontier stocks, according to estimates by banks and fund tracker EPFR.
However, some of last year's frontier darlings are now feeling the heat of the global sell-off.
Nigerian stocks, which soared 43 percent in 2013, have fallen 2.5 percent in 2014, the naira is trading below its 150-160 per dollar band, and the central bank says hot money remains in the system.
Mauritian stocks have fallen after rallying 20 percent last year, domestic bond yields have risen and the central bank governor said this week that rates should be raised to prevent capital flight.
"We are seeing continuing outflows of emerging markets, week in, week out, we have seen some panic," said Feriani.
"Frontier markets have remained uncorrelated, that won't go on forever - I am a bit cautious."
Mpesa bank is struggling with the 12/- handle. Plenty of selling here since Jan 24th. Resistance clouds forming at this level. EABL, Member and KCB still signalling further dips coming. The volume moves on Jan 24th were clustered on the sell side. I'll keep on stating this until its clear. This year risk management will be important. Easy gains won't be a walk in the park like in 2012 and 2013... I saw something on FT about the KE eurobond might be delayed till March... Anyone else spotted this - cc @mwekezaji, @deal, @vvs, @guru na wengine? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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@hisah - The Eurobond is simply about kicking the can further down the road. It has to come in 'cheap' otherwise it will be a pricey thing to do. I expect the IMF will support it but as Kenyans we need to reign in recurrent expenditure even if we face (a lot) short-term pain. The Eurobond will have to be repaid while there is no guarantee the funds will be used for sustainable development vs corruption & political projects. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Interesting to note the boring market conditions. Indeed focus is now on eurobond since with most fiscal results near term the excitement is not there. The trump card that is the eurobond is keeping things afloat otherwise the market would be selling harder. It's Feb and trading mirrors December...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Turnover rose to Kes.902M from the previous session’s Kes.450M, the number of shares traded stood at 31M against 24M posted yesterday. The NSE 20 Share Index closed 15.08 points higher to stand at 4833.36. All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.82 points to stand at 138.08. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Turnover rose to Kes.902M from the previous session’s Kes.450M, the number of shares traded stood at 31M against 24M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index closed 15.08 points higher to stand at 4833.36.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.82 points to stand at 138.08. Bounces since last Tues. Let's see how long the bounce lasts with results coming in going forward. The first bounce was quite weak...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Turnover rose to Kes.902M from the previous session’s Kes.450M, the number of shares traded stood at 31M against 24M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index closed 15.08 points higher to stand at 4833.36.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.82 points to stand at 138.08. Bounces since last Tues. Let's see how long the bounce lasts with results coming in going forward. The first bounce was quite weak... The bounces are nothing to talk about.
Definitely NSE20 will close below 4700 level this month making it the 2nd down month as 2014 starts on the back foot.
Levels to watch as th slide continues are 4740 as per lower BB (bol bands) then 4500 - 4600 horizontal support and 2010 highs then SMA100 @4380 and SMA200 @4170. By the time SMA200 is tested the investor section will be full of property threads  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Turnover rose to Kes.902M from the previous session’s Kes.450M, the number of shares traded stood at 31M against 24M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index closed 15.08 points higher to stand at 4833.36.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.82 points to stand at 138.08. Bounces since last Tues. Let's see how long the bounce lasts with results coming in going forward. The first bounce was quite weak... The bounces are nothing to talk about.
Definitely NSE20 will close below 4700 level this month making it the 2nd down month as 2014 starts on the back foot.
Levels to watch as th slide continues are 4740 as per lower BB (bol bands) then 4500 - 4600 horizontal support and 2010 highs then SMA100 @4380 and SMA200 @4170. By the time SMA200 is tested the investor section will be full of property threads hisah wrote:
I'll keep on stating this until its clear. This year risk management will be important. Easy gains won't be a walk in the park like in 2012 and 2013...
I'm taking that advice very seriously.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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When will be the offer and results of Eurobond be known? In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@hisah the JSE is on fire...it booked a fresh record high today...quiet an interesting divergence from the NSE which keeps on tanking...foreigners are now selling frontier assets i.e Kenya & Nigeria...contrary to what some market commentators were opinioning.....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:@hisah the JSE is on fire...it booked a fresh record high today...quiet an interesting divergence from the NSE which keeps on tanking...foreigners are now selling frontier assets i.e Kenya & Nigeria...contrary to what some market commentators were opinioning..... Seen it, but I'm not convinced about its sustainability. Just like global stocks. Shanghai gold/silver futures is signalling something has gone snap as PMs rally.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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The Bourse opened the week with a total of 22M shares valued at Kes.349M, down from Kes.586M on a volume of 27M shares posted last Friday. The NSE 20 Share Index was up 12.47 points to stand at 4848.71. All Share Index (NASI) notched up 1.13 points to stand at 139.57. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action. @aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action.
@aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. we will. and then, we'll be getting those questions of whether to buy mumias at 10.00. I hope not 1.00 bob( assuming headed up). The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action.
@aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. we will. and then, we'll be getting those questions of whether to buy mumias at 10.00. I hope not 1.00 bob( assuming headed up). what was the closing price? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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murchr wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:MSC is piling up volumes after 3/- handle broke down. Liking this action.
@aguy - in future we will discuss this vol behaviour. we will. and then, we'll be getting those questions of whether to buy mumias at 10.00. I hope not 1.00 bob( assuming headed up). what was the closing price? @Murchr the closing price was 3.00 Accelerate the price to a high of 3.20 to build sufficient demand at 3.00 for dump.(For the third day,the price closes at a low and on a volume spike) Aguy,its a support break down.
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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