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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
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VituVingiSana
#2341 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:59:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
By July-August we could be talking of an interim dividend, what this years loss will be hiding is the amount of organic growth & lessons the mngmnt have gone through...At 14.75 KK is cheaper than most firms at the NSE...An EPS of 2.50-2.75 for FY 2013 pushes the PE to 5.3-5.9 and a Gross DY of 8.4% assuming a DPS of 1.25...Eish the monkey should tank!
You mean a dividend for FY 2013? There will be no dividend for FY 2012. I think the DPS of 1.25 is too high even in 2013 but probably lower to shore up the cash position IF KK is still KK & not Puma ;-)

For FY 2013...to arrive at a DPS of 1.25 I assumed a 50% payout ratio on an EPS of 2.5 for FY 2013. ..I expect CAPEX over the next 2-3 years to be lower than the last to 3-5 years hence more dividends to shareholders.
Go for 40% Div Payout coz that is what KK has traditionally done. That said, I think KK should 'preserve' cash & pay out in a bonus [Centum, NIC] instead.It is an election year so 1Q 2013 may be slow as folks do not have cash [reduced real economic activity] & then inflationary pressures as the government is starved of cash. Plus all the confusion. All that said, I think KK will continue going strong in 2013.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#2342 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:00:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Maybe Segman is deliberately not making an official announcement so that the fall in the share price is managed and gives some guys a chance to exit at a higher price! smile
Huh? How? The buyers (unless they are 'desperate' to buy) can always wait it out. And would they not have exited much earlier BEFORE the sub-standard story?
Finally, Segman reports to the 'real' owners [the biwott & friends] who can't sell their 60% without the CMA breathing down their necks.


Im talking about EXITING and RE ENTERING at a lower price.. Whats the point of holding shares you bought at 14bob?? Sell now and re enter at below 10bob...

If it was an official statement the price would have fallen straight to 10 causing huge loss to those who are attempting to exit!

The guys who sold at 14.50 are just lucky!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:02 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#2343 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:02:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
I love this ;-) As a long termer the short-term downside movements [when I have cash] is a chance to jump in with both feet. Fall, baby, fall ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Kausha
#2344 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:27:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
The Deal is very much alive ignore the media or better still another excellent buying opportunity.
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guru267
#2345 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:30:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
The Deal is very much alive.

Laughing out loudly
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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selah
#2346 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:53:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Quote:
A highly-placed manager at KenolKobil has revealed that Puma has lost interest in the deal following a series of hold-ups, among them, the unsettled KenolKobil debts in the country’s biggest take-over deal.


Quote:
“Puma seems to have lost interest in the takeover bid and it’s easy to read this trend from the senior management,” said our source who requested anonymity.

“Indication from the top management is that the takeover deal is no more.”


Reading these comments I can only say either the standard is on a fishing expedition or KK is playing mind games...the debts were pubic knowledge and are contentious..anyway...the issue of puma pulling out might not be a shock to me...their due diligence process has taken too long and the communication from KK management has been very poor...I think this story will smoke them out and tell us what the hell is going on.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2347 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:53:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
If the rumours turn out to be true, I wonder what PUMA's next move will be. I mean, their plan was to increase their African presence.
So, start greenfield operations? No way.
Find another takeover target? PUMA will be hard pressed to find an OMC with KK's regional presence.
KK is a gem. That however will not stop the price from falling if the rumours are true.

Na PUMA wakimea pembe waishie. KK ni msawa mbaya. Suitors hawaezi kosekana;-)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mwekez@ji
#2348 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:54:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
Kausha wrote:
The Deal is very much alive ignore the media or better still another excellent buying opportunity.

Laughing out loudly

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Lets see where the last laugh will go. #Money is being made in this knee jerk reactions# #Wild wild swings# smile smile Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2349 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:55:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
And PUMA made KK fire some folks! If they baulk at the deal, wafanyikazi watarudishwa?Sad
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Cde Monomotapa
#2350 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 12:59:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
smile
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