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Realities of Forex Investment
hisah
#2301 Posted : Friday, June 07, 2013 6:59:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
alutacontinua wrote:
@hisah still don't understand how USDJPY was able to rally back up to 97 on thin liquidity. Placed a couple of shorts in as well as on EurJpy at 129. The Yen daily charts look to have turned (more like taken a jump off a cliff). Am not going to even try and pick a bottom.......as the saying goes what goes up must come down. BOJ must in a crisis meeting atm.

As long as the jap bond yields keep rising, jap stocks will take it in the chin as the yen gets bought. This is going against the BoJ's ¥7 trillion/month stimulus programme expectation started on Apr 2013. With the 10yr bond yield almost up 3 times, BoJ must throw a huge surprise to crash that bond yield spike to get their stimulus programme back on track. Jap corporates will shelve floating bonds as it gets expensive (no cheap funds) and messy with bond yields spiking wildly.

Currently the nikkei is oversold, but looks pretty nasty now that it has sold off more than 20% since May 23rd effectively entering bear market zone!

It's cranky in jap fin markets now as wild volatility breaks many participants.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
symbols
#2302 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 1:25:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects.
hisah
#2303 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 5:26:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
symbols wrote:
@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects.

RSI, ultimate oscillator and volume spread. MACD & Stochastics for trend confirmation.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
alutacontinua
#2304 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 6:03:09 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
BOJ leaves monetary base target unchanged and gives positive outlook on Jap economy but leaves annual buying of JGBS @50T Yen. USDJPY down about 100pips after statement.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
hisah
#2305 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 7:04:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
alutacontinua wrote:
BOJ leaves monetary base target unchanged and gives positive outlook on Jap economy but leaves annual buying of JGBS @50T Yen. USDJPY down about 100pips after statement.

This abenomics experiment will be an interesting failed policy discussion a few years later. Bond yields will spike badly at some point and that will roast the econ badly.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
symbols
#2306 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 7:14:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects.

RSI, ultimate oscillator and volume spread. MACD & Stochastics for trend confirmation.


What about economic indicators?
alutacontinua
#2307 Posted : Tuesday, June 11, 2013 8:03:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
With the G8 meeting next week, think PM Abe wants to have low volatility and possibly a higher Nikkei as proof that his experiment is working. Waiting on the Europe open to place a few trades.

Gold and Silver consolidating again. Looking to short at retest of 1400 and 22
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
hisah
#2308 Posted : Wednesday, June 12, 2013 4:36:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
symbols wrote:
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects.

RSI, ultimate oscillator and volume spread. MACD & Stochastics for trend confirmation.


What about economic indicators?


I rarely use econ indicators in forex. I wonder how many seasoned traders even the banksters who use econ indicators for the same. This market is too manipulated for those lagging indicators to help you earn profits... Mostly they are used to corner the crowd. Buy the rumour sell the news works well during those econ news events.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#2309 Posted : Wednesday, June 12, 2013 4:46:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Traders Said to Rig Currency Rates to Profit Off Clients - http://www.bloomberg.com...profit-off-clients.html

Quote:
Traders at some of the world’s biggest banks manipulated benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments, according to five dealers with knowledge of the practice.

One trader with more than a decade of experience said that if he received an order at 3:30 p.m. to sell 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in exchange for Swiss francs at the 4 p.m. fix, he would have two objectives: to sell his own euros at the highest price and also to move the rate lower so that at 4 p.m. he could buy the currency from his client at a lower price.

He would profit from the difference between the reference rate and the higher price at which he sold his own euros, he said. A move in the benchmark of 2 basis points, or 0.02 percent, would be worth 200,000 francs ($216,000), he said.


@symbols - read that article.

Very interesting that since 2010 the manipulation that is so common in financial markets for eons is now going mainstream. Wonder how many have noticed the number of hedge funds that have gone bust or shutdown or basically have walked away from the game. Next on line is private equity firms.

If there is on thing the dark knights have come to dislike it is the internet. Too much info has now exposed the markets hidden hand and making profits from the sheep is becoming harder by the day as the sheep walk away or read into the manipulation and profit like the masters smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
symbols
#2310 Posted : Wednesday, June 12, 2013 8:23:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
hisah wrote:
Traders Said to Rig Currency Rates to Profit Off Clients - http://www.bloomberg.com...profit-off-clients.html

Quote:
Traders at some of the world’s biggest banks manipulated benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments, according to five dealers with knowledge of the practice.

One trader with more than a decade of experience said that if he received an order at 3:30 p.m. to sell 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in exchange for Swiss francs at the 4 p.m. fix, he would have two objectives: to sell his own euros at the highest price and also to move the rate lower so that at 4 p.m. he could buy the currency from his client at a lower price.

He would profit from the difference between the reference rate and the higher price at which he sold his own euros, he said. A move in the benchmark of 2 basis points, or 0.02 percent, would be worth 200,000 francs ($216,000), he said.


@symbols - read that article.

Very interesting that since 2010 the manipulation that is so common in financial markets for eons is now going mainstream. Wonder how many have noticed the number of hedge funds that have gone bust or shutdown or basically have walked away from the game. Next on line is private equity firms.

If there is on thing the dark knights have come to dislike it is the internet. Too much info has now exposed the markets hidden hand and making profits from the sheep is becoming harder by the day as the sheep walk away or read into the manipulation and profit like the masters smile


Thanx for the info on indicators.It's a brutal market.Interesting article.Trust in the financial markets is being eroded.I agree the internet is shaking things up.To some extent I even understand why the US is afraid.If we consider the billions in India and China and the millions there with IT skills,things are just getting started.Although they will find another way to get profits,the house never loses.The onslaught of PE firms will be interesting.
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