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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
VituVingiSana
#2211 Posted : Saturday, October 13, 2012 8:21:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
@guru -

There are negatives as you mentioned [every industry, sector or firm faces all or most]:

1) price controls - Populism but the same could happen to banks [muthuto, midiwo] or to food [when millers were being squeezed], farmers, etc. Ultimately, they fail.
2) volatile exchange rates - Failure of the country's management of the Current Account. Most industries including banks, millers, importer, etc can suffer if they bet wrong. Note that interest rates rose to 'drop' the USD from 107 to 84. Some say that some 'connected' banks made billions but that is nothing but cronyism.
3) high oil prices - KK has no control but they can & do pass on the cost. We will not stop using fuel (from petroleum) in the near future. The entire country suffers. KQ, car sales plunge, food prices rise, holidays, electricity cost more, etc. If worldwide demand crashes, the price will drop.
4) ballooning finance costs - A function of the economy's mismanagement. They can control it by reducing borrowings. Banks don't like high interest rates = increases defaults.

There is an interesting trend when price controls are used where margins get squeezed. The small or informal players gets squeezed out. This ironically defeats the purpose of price controls as it gives 'oligarchy' status to the ones who can ride it out.

If you observe the market share of KK & Total have been steadily growing. There are advantages of being in an oligopoly.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#2212 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 8:41:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
According to the last update link due diligence was completed in September. It must have been satisfactory otherwise they wouldn't be pursuing the damn court cases. That said, 13s and sub are a welcome time

Let me quote (para[phrase) Warren Buffett:

When you go to the supermarket, and there is a sale on the non-perishable items you need & buy regularly, you should not complain but take joy in buying today at a discount what was pricier last week. If possible, you should stock up.

The same applies with shares that you like for the right reasons and there is no change in the circumstances. Buy at the lower price, what you would have paid more earlier.

My Take: Let KK share prices fall Applause since I believe nothing has changed for KK since September. The only negative announcement would be Puma withdraws the offer. That means the 3 cases have no locus standi. KK management gets back to business & can negotiate a JV with Puma that still benefits KK by sharing facilities, knowledge, products, etc.


i cant agree more. This is a buyers market smile Sellers market will come smile
Aguytrying
#2213 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 10:49:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#2214 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 3:23:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2
Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %.

So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#2215 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 3:39:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2
Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %.

So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back.


thanks for info. what about the ability to sell earlier stocks bought at lower price at the new high price
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
StatMeister
#2216 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 3:41:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2
Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %.

So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back.


@aguy, oil retailers lose money when crude prices go up.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#2217 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 4:46:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2
Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %.

So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back.


thanks for info. what about the ability to sell earlier stocks bought at lower price at the new high price
Yes. Though that is for only a part of the earlier shipment. I am looking at the larger picture for consumption throughout the year.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#2218 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 5:05:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VWAP @14/- with a today's low @13.85. Waiting to see the test of 13.50/- to determine if KK is going to be a buyers market, meaning more selling bout...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#2219 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 5:11:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
VWAP @14/- with a today's low @13.85. Waiting to see the test of 13.50/- to determine if KK is going to be a buyers market, meaning more selling bout...
Fall, fall, fall, fall Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2220 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 5:31:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Getting juicier by the day!
@SufficientlyP
259 Pages«<220221222223224>»
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