Wazua
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Kenya airways Right Issue
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,110 Location: Nairobi
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A trade at 12.70 then a slight recovery to 13 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,110 Location: Nairobi
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There is little demand at the moment BIDS 25,600 Quantity Price Splits Time 300 12.70 1 13:41:27 15,000 12.60 8 13:41:27 10,300 12.55 2 13:41:27 - - - - - - - - ASKS 158,500 Quantity Price Splits Time 1,200 13.00 1 13:41:27 400 13.20 1 13:41:27 13,000 13.50 3 13:41:27 100 13.80 1 13:41:27 16,400 13.90 4 13:41:27 TRADES Quantity Price Time 1,000 13.00 13:41:16 3,700 13.00 13:27:36 700 13.00 12:34:24 1,000 13.00 12:02:50 11,000 13.00 12:02:50 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 408 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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stocksmaster wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:
Furthermore, Citibank will INSIST in being the main bank for KQ's Rights Issue thus earning fees, commissions & arbitrage income.
I thought KCB was appointed the main bank for the rights issue?? VituVingiSana wrote: Citi will also get a DISCOUNT on the Rights Issue. Yes, suckers, Citi will pay less than 14/-. How exactly will this happen?? KQ is raising 20.7 billion meaning that they require a MINIMUM of 14bob per share on the rights which CITI has underwritten.. So if the shares are under subscribed CITI must buy the remaining rights at 14bob even if the shares on the market are 7bob.. With the price falling much below the rights price, the possibility of citi bank having to underwrite upto 20% of the rights (about the fraction of local KQ shareholders) becomes a real possibility. By underwritting about 20% of rights (about 290M shares), Citi bank may end up owning 15% of KQ post rights!!! I still believe the KQ expansion is over ambitious especially considering the many variables currently affecting the airline business. The Ksh 20.7B to be raised by the rights issue is only a 10% down payment for the planes!!! My concern is the level of debt they will have to take to pay the balance. It would be prudent to stay out of this share for the short to medium term.Happy Hunting
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/26/2009 Posts: 67 Location: Pare pare
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stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:
Furthermore, Citibank will INSIST in being the main bank for KQ's Rights Issue thus earning fees, commissions & arbitrage income.
I thought KCB was appointed the main bank for the rights issue?? VituVingiSana wrote: Citi will also get a DISCOUNT on the Rights Issue. Yes, suckers, Citi will pay less than 14/-. How exactly will this happen?? KQ is raising 20.7 billion meaning that they require a MINIMUM of 14bob per share on the rights which CITI has underwritten.. So if the shares are under subscribed CITI must buy the remaining rights at 14bob even if the shares on the market are 7bob.. With the price falling much below the rights price, the possibility of citi bank having to underwrite upto 20% of the rights (about the fraction of local KQ shareholders) becomes a real possibility. By underwritting about 20% of rights (about 290M shares), Citi bank may end up owning 15% of KQ post rights!!! I still believe the KQ expansion is over ambitious especially considering the many variables currently affecting the airline business. The Ksh 20.7B to be raised by the rights issue is only a 10% down payment for the planes!!! My concern is the level of debt they will have to take to pay the balance. It would be prudent to stay out of this share for the short to medium term.Happy Hunting Damn.This is a mess.I will pick this up at ground zero.How low can it go is the question. Hug the bear....ride the bull.....di$mount!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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After some thought i concluded that this company could be in serious trouble in the next few years, How will they pay all that debt. They are shooting themselves in the foot. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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Simplified wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:
Furthermore, Citibank will INSIST in being the main bank for KQ's Rights Issue thus earning fees, commissions & arbitrage income.
I thought KCB was appointed the main bank for the rights issue?? VituVingiSana wrote: Citi will also get a DISCOUNT on the Rights Issue. Yes, suckers, Citi will pay less than 14/-. How exactly will this happen?? KQ is raising 20.7 billion meaning that they require a MINIMUM of 14bob per share on the rights which CITI has underwritten.. So if the shares are under subscribed CITI must buy the remaining rights at 14bob even if the shares on the market are 7bob.. With the price falling much below the rights price, the possibility of citi bank having to underwrite upto 20% of the rights (about the fraction of local KQ shareholders) becomes a real possibility. By underwritting about 20% of rights (about 290M shares), Citi bank may end up owning 15% of KQ post rights!!! I still believe the KQ expansion is over ambitious especially considering the many variables currently affecting the airline business. The Ksh 20.7B to be raised by the rights issue is only a 10% down payment for the planes!!! My concern is the level of debt they will have to take to pay the balance. It would be prudent to stay out of this share for the short to medium term.Happy Hunting Damn.This is a mess.I will pick this up at ground zero.How low can it go is the question. all time low at 7 bob ! thats a good reference point ! and we will get there . stop guessing look at charts .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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ProverB wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:ProverB wrote:
I still retain.. ideal price..is sub 10bob..
I retain, the ideal price ... is >15.10 @Mwekezaji... I hope your valuation has changed now? Have heard a number of mates waiting for this counter at around 10. What price will they be exiting at, if its not >15 ...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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QW25091985 wrote:Simplified wrote:
Damn.This is a mess.I will pick this up at ground zero.How low can it go is the question.
all time low at 7 bob ! thats a good reference point ! and we will get there . stop guessing look at charts . When was the 7 bob. Give us that chart
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 408 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Simplified wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:
Furthermore, Citibank will INSIST in being the main bank for KQ's Rights Issue thus earning fees, commissions & arbitrage income.
I thought KCB was appointed the main bank for the rights issue?? VituVingiSana wrote: Citi will also get a DISCOUNT on the Rights Issue. Yes, suckers, Citi will pay less than 14/-. How exactly will this happen?? KQ is raising 20.7 billion meaning that they require a MINIMUM of 14bob per share on the rights which CITI has underwritten.. So if the shares are under subscribed CITI must buy the remaining rights at 14bob even if the shares on the market are 7bob.. With the price falling much below the rights price, the possibility of citi bank having to underwrite upto 20% of the rights (about the fraction of local KQ shareholders) becomes a real possibility. By underwritting about 20% of rights (about 290M shares), Citi bank may end up owning 15% of KQ post rights!!! I still believe the KQ expansion is over ambitious especially considering the many variables currently affecting the airline business. The Ksh 20.7B to be raised by the rights issue is only a 10% down payment for the planes!!! My concern is the level of debt they will have to take to pay the balance. It would be prudent to stay out of this share for the short to medium term.Happy Hunting Damn.This is a mess.I will pick this up at ground zero.How low can it go is the question. They didn't even raise enough for the 10% down payment (raised only 7%)......since they are not shelving the expansion plan, they now need to borrow the remaining 93% to be repaid via the shrinking profits....... Sub Ksh 10 seems to be the destination for this bus. Happy Hunting.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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stocksmaster wrote:
They didn't even raise enough for the 10% down payment (raised only 7%)......since they are not shelving the expansion plan, they now need to borrow the remaining 93% to be repaid via the shrinking profits.......
Sub Ksh 10 seems to be the destination for this bus.
Happy Hunting.
They managed 70% success rate. The Finance Director has indicated that this will create optimal debt equity ratio. He must be looking at achieving optimal capital structure and yielding maximum returns Sub 10 seems to be the destination, but with wanjiku selling
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/26/2009 Posts: 67 Location: Pare pare
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mwekez@ji wrote:QW25091985 wrote:Simplified wrote:
Damn.This is a mess.I will pick this up at ground zero.How low can it go is the question.
all time low at 7 bob ! thats a good reference point ! and we will get there . stop guessing look at charts . When was the 7 bob. Give us that chart  Hug the bear....ride the bull.....di$mount!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,110 Location: Nairobi
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Did any Wazuans apply for the Rights? Why? [Not judging, just asking] Also read http://coldtusker.blogsp...nya-airways-rip-off.htmlGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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Simplified wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:QW25091985 wrote:Simplified wrote:
Damn.This is a mess.I will pick this up at ground zero.How low can it go is the question.
all time low at 7 bob ! thats a good reference point ! and we will get there . stop guessing look at charts . When was the 7 bob. Give us that chart oops. Sorry about that all time low is 5.13 am saying 5 bob because there's no support between the 14 bob rights price and the stocks all-time low. Any way thats the way i plan to play it ! You risk massive losses if you buy inbetween those important price levels. What am saying is that keep of this stock !
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2009 Posts: 348
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i guess it is now dawning on investors here that this stock has only one way to go for now..down.investing in airlines once they become too big is a good way to lose money
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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[quote=VituVingiSana]Did any Wazuans apply for the Rights? Why? [Not judging, just asking] Also read http://coldtusker.blogsp...ya-airways-rip-off.html[/quote] This reinforces (what Guru267 called) my "paranoia" over government-controlled PLCs and particularly around election times. Mali ya umma mentality.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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QW25091985 wrote:.... all time low is 5.13
am saying 5 bob because there's no support between the 14 bob rights price and the stocks all-time low. Any way thats the way i plan to play it ! You risk massive losses if you buy inbetween those important price levels.
What am saying is that keep of this stock ! When was that all time low. pls share that chart
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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@ mwekez@ji and @all. me i willNOT touch this stock unless t falls down to 5 bob level . the chart below shows the all-time low at 4 bob level ( actually its 5.13 bob ).around the circled area in BLACK ! its a very strong support level as you can see because price stayed there for the longest time ever .before it started it metriotic rise to 160 highs . 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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mwekez@ji wrote:stocksmaster wrote:
They didn't even raise enough for the 10% down payment (raised only 7%)......since they are not shelving the expansion plan, they now need to borrow the remaining 93% to be repaid via the shrinking profits.......
Sub Ksh 10 seems to be the destination for this bus.
Happy Hunting.
They managed 70% success rate. The Finance Director has indicated that this will create optimal debt equity ratio. He must be looking at achieving optimal capital structure and yielding maximum returns Sub 10 seems to be the destination, but with wanjiku selling Which debt equity ratio? Is it 90-10?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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For the first time Wanjiku has an upperhand on foreigners & institutions.. In the long term airlines will always lose you money... With KQs current costs out of control i would like to see how they will add 20billion in annual interest payments to their P&L.. This does not even include the 200+billion in principal payments... I pray oil does not have another parabolic rise otherwise i smell an ugly bankruptcy  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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PKoli wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:stocksmaster wrote:
They didn't even raise enough for the 10% down payment (raised only 7%)......since they are not shelving the expansion plan, they now need to borrow the remaining 93% to be repaid via the shrinking profits.......
Sub Ksh 10 seems to be the destination for this bus.
Happy Hunting.
They managed 70% success rate. The Finance Director has indicated that this will create optimal debt equity ratio. He must be looking at achieving optimal capital structure and yielding maximum returns Sub 10 seems to be the destination, but with wanjiku selling Which debt equity ratio? Is it 90-10? The plan is to raise half of the 10 & 5 year capex plan via internal sources. @PKoli, what would you consider as an optimal debt equity mix for an airline. I have seen banks lending upto 90% to a number of capex plans
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