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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
the deal
#2171 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 9:33:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The story goes like this...when Puma bought a 75% stake in Bp Zm it was suppose to make a mandatory offer to the minority shareholders 25% thats according to SEC of Zm rules but at the same time the Gava of Zm never wanted Bp Zm delisted cos it would reduce the no of listed companies on the Luse, so Puma applied to the SEC to waiver the mandatory takeover rule, the SEC turned down the application last year thus Puma had to make a mandatory takeover this year. To keep the company listed which is the wish of the Gava of Zm they had to sell any share they bought back to Zambian institutions. So in the end Puma keeps 75% and the Zm unit stays listed. Premium? Yes there was...Puma bought the 75% in 2011 at K1149 and offered the minority K1205!
VituVingiSana
#2172 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:05:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20

@VVS will kestrel put in the bid for KK?? Is Kestrel carrying out due diligence for Puma??

if in Zambia they offered 1205 up from 875 that is a useless gain for 2 whole years waiting for a deal...

KK shareholders should not be shocked if Puma offers 17bob because that is a serious gain from the average price before the cautionary statement!

If the deal falls through i will gladly buy at 8-9bob!

btw the KK shares i sold at 14bob to buy KCB @ 25bob have already made me a cool 12% smile
Good for you ;-) I am quite comfy thanks to the panic got in at 13 so 15/13.2 (including transaction costs) = 13.6% smile

Don't stress too much. We will wait to see the outcome. I figure we shall know sooner than later Pray I bought the 'firm' at a discount so I am happy.

As for worrying whether Kestrel will put in the bid... They are on the 'sellers' side & probably know a lot more than the rest of us. I have a feeling that the biwott family will sell out at a 'healthy' price which would benefit minority shareholders as well...

Worst case: The takeover is off the table. d'oh! KK continues its business. No stress on my end. I own shares at a fair price in a well-run firm. What Buffett calls a 10-bagger. We wait, profits roll in, dividends get paid out and share prices rise. It's all good Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jamani
#2173 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:13:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20


@VVS will kestrel put in the bid for KK?? Is Kestrel carrying out due diligence for Puma??

if in Zambia they offered 1205 up from 875 that is a useless gain for 2 whole years waiting for a deal...

KK shareholders should not be shocked if Puma offers 17bob because that is a serious gain from the average price before the cautionary statement!

If the deal falls through i will gladly buy at 8-9bob!

btw the KK shares i sold at 14bob to buy KCB @ 25bob have already made me a cool 12% smile




March 2010 the Zambian share was trading much less than 875, probably between 500 and 600... 875 price range is after the cautionary statement
Jamani
#2174 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:17:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
If Puma offers less than KES 17.65, there is no harm we stay in and leverage on the advantages that puma will bring onboard as we look forward to the expected oil finds.
Remember Puma is seeing high value in KK and it knows very well its a diamond in the rough.
VituVingiSana
#2175 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:30:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
If Puma offers less than KES 17.65, there is no harm we stay in and leverage on the advantages that puma will bring onboard as we look forward to the expected oil finds.
Remember Puma is seeing high value in KK and it knows very well its a diamond in the rough.
I believe (as I said earlier) even if the Takeover 'fails' there will some sort of JV that will make KK the 'supply partner' for Puma in East, Central & Southern Africa. KK supplies Zambia with fuel & lubricants. KK has a trading desk/operations in Mozambique. Expanding to Zimbabwe, Malawi & Botswana is not that difficult for KK. KK's partner in the 5-country deal they lost to Puma was Engen who might step in & fill Puma's shoes.

KK is a beautiful young girl. The suitors are many Laughing out loudly it's the size of the lobola that matters!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#2176 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 11:18:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The takeover price will be much higher than most street estimates

1. Top notch Assets-Number 1 supplier of lubricants in Zambia, Number 1 in terms of maket share in Rwanda, Kenya and Uganda. KK runs East Africa.
2. Top notch management-I see Mr Segmen becoming the Chairman of Puma Energy Africa
3. Competitors-By buying KK, Puma is swallowing competition.
4. Supplier/new Customers-Puma has no precense in East Africa´s biggest economy. Puma can use KK´s expansive network of storage facility to supply the companies East and Central Africa network.
5. Final Piece of the Jigsaw Puzzle-KK is the missing piece then waala Puma has a strong sub saharan chain.

Takeovers involving several countries take alot of effort and time to complete, this deal can stretch into next year...which is not a bad thing considering KK would have recovered from those horrible H1 losses.
murchr
#2177 Posted : Sunday, October 07, 2012 4:32:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel

Quote:
In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.

But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum.


The EastAfrican
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
guru267
#2178 Posted : Sunday, October 07, 2012 6:33:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
As for worrying whether Kestrel will put in the bid... They are on the 'sellers' side


Doesn't rational thinking tell us that the bidders will always bid lower than the sellers asking price?? It happens everyday on the NSE!!
So if Kestrel says 20bob i don't see why Puma won't offer 17bob..

VituVingiSana wrote:
I have a feeling that the biwott family will sell out at a 'healthy' price which would benefit minority shareholders as well...


Biwott probably got his shares at less than 1bob when he got in.. He will gladly take 17bob from Puma as it will be the all time high share price for the stock and like 20times what he put in..

Why would Biwott care about minority shareholders??

VituVingiSana wrote:
I own shares at a fair price in a well-run firm. What Buffett calls a 10-bagger.


A business with TERRIBLE margins will unlikely ever be a "10bagger" no matter how good the management!

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#2179 Posted : Sunday, October 07, 2012 7:36:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel

Quote:
In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.

But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum.


The EastAfrican

The drama is getting better... Shakeouts then sizable gains. Dizzy volatility rides smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#2180 Posted : Sunday, October 07, 2012 11:41:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I'm seating here & laughing at the challenge by Total Kenya...its WEAK! Read JIS comments in that story. I have cash...I would like to buy I missed adding more at 13 bob last time btwn KK screwed Total Kenya & now Puma will finish them off...its funny how KK never talked about stopping the Total Kenya (TK) buy out of Caltex cos they had a pre emptive right to buy caltex share in the oil facility...look where the acquisition of caltex has ended TK...Losses year in year out...up to the point they had to recapitalise...Hidiots!
259 Pages«<216217218219220>»
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