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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
cnn
#2161 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 7:57:42 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
Jamani wrote:
cnn wrote:
1205 ....which is the 52 week high for the share,where is the premium?http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PUMA:ZL


The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012.
Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium..

I did see that,meaning if you go on a speculative buying spree after the cautionary statement is made,you are on your own should a take over proceed to completion at a price below your purchase one.Where was KK when the announcement was made...12.50?
Jamani
#2162 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:03:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
cnn wrote:
Jamani wrote:
cnn wrote:
1205 ....which is the 52 week high for the share,where is the premium?http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PUMA:ZL


The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012.
Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium..

I did see that,meaning if you go on a speculative buying spree after the cautionary statement is made,you are on your own should a take over proceed to completion at a price below your purchase one.Where was KK when the announcement was made...12.50?


Yes somewhere around that price, but remember the fair value @ 17.65, then mark-up from the fair value.
The graph on Zambia doesnt go beyond one year the price might have been lower than or around 500 at the time of the initial cautionary statement
VituVingiSana
#2163 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:04:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Jamani wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jamani wrote:
Very interesting only 0.2% of the Zambian Wanjikus sold
This was the offer made by Puma but the final results are not known. Or I do not have them. It will be interesting to see where it ends up.

http://www.luse.co.zm/?wpfb_dl=67 check item No. 4
Thanks! The LUSE website is weird... not sure how you found it!

Anyway, interesting that Puma kept the listing AND got the support of the institutional shareholders who must have figured out that 1,205 was a good price to BUY the shares! So the Wanjiku who did not sell might be better off in the long-run!

If this model is used for KK then it could remain listed yet Puma acquires the shares from the majority [biwott] with a maximum shareholding of 75%.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2164 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:13:53 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
Jamani wrote:
cnn wrote:
1205 ....which is the 52 week high for the share,where is the premium?http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PUMA:ZL


The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012.
Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium..

I did see that,meaning if you go on a speculative buying spree after the cautionary statement is made,you are on your own should a take over proceed to completion at a price below your purchase one.Where was KK when the announcement was made...12.50?
The 1205 on the graph could be one of two scenarios:

1) The price AFTER Puma announced the buy-out price. In essence, the folks who bought at 1205 wanted to be shareholders or were speculating on a higher offer by Puma. Risky move.

Puma's announcement came when KK was 12.50 but was suspended. Then the suspension was lifted & the current price is 15. If Puma announces 20, the price will trend towards 20 on speculation that Puma may increase the bid. The sellers can refuse to sell below 20 [except the discount for time value].

2) The price the LuSE shows on the price list is not the trading price but what Puma offered as the buy-out price, in essence the bid. The last or highest trading price prior to the offer might have been much lower.

This would be the equivalent of KK trading at 15 on 5th Sep then Puma announcing 20 on 7th Sep (with a suspension) which becomes the "bid" for all practical purposes until the suspension is lifted.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#2165 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:19:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:

If this model is used for KK then it could remain listed yet Puma acquires the shares from the majority [biwott] with a maximum shareholding of 75%.

Maybe they'll go that route. Could it be why Segman keeps telling shareholders about the improvements this 'strategic investor' will bring to the company? I mean, if Puma wants the whole piece of the pie, what they bring afterwards wouldn't matter to us...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#2166 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:20:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Jamani wrote:


The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012.
Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium..


So the deal took 2 and a half years to close?Pray Sad Pray Sad Pray Sad

2014 si mbali saaaana. Sindio?Laughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#2167 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:21:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
The 1H was worse than I anticipated. Much worse! I did expect some losses [read the Chairman's Statement as well as the Comprehensive Income Statement] but not 4bn. That loss will reduce the how much Puma will pay for KK by about KES 2 (based on what was known to Puma in May 2012 when the takeover was announced) & what happened through June 2012.

I expect KK to make a profit in 2H. It will not cover the loss in 1H but it can be 'added' to what Puma will pay.

My calculations:
Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20

If the deal falls through (delays due to the employees nonsensical court case, KPC's bullshit, etc) then the price will drop. Probably back to 12.50 though I expect Puma will enter into a different deal [Segman kept on talking of a JV at the AGM] that benefits both parties.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2168 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:27:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Jamani wrote:

The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012.
Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium..

So the deal took 2 and a half years to close?Pray Sad Pray Sad Pray Sad
2014 si mbali saaaana. Sindio?Laughing out loudly
d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Not quite. What happened was that LuSE (& GRZ) did not want BP/Puma to de-list so they kept on throwing roadblocks. The same happened with Celtel/Airtel.

Zambia was socialist. These firms had a government ownership which was floated/listed [see Safaricom, etc] but the 'new' buyers did not want to remain listed for some reason or the other. Note that neither Puma nor Airtel are listed on any exchange in Africa except Zambia.

LuSE is a small exchange therefore BP/Puma & Celtel/Airtel de-listing would be a huge blow. It's more about nationalism than economics.

Back to Kenya. The delays are about the fools seeking to stop/delay the transaction not the NSE/GoK (well, not yet!). The good news is KK is profitable & probably has an informal JV with Puma already for supply of crude, fuel, etc.

If a good offer is made e.g. 20, why would shareholders petition the NSE/CMA/GoK to delay the payment?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2169 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 8:34:53 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Employees: I do not believe they have grounds but this is Kenya where the judges often make funny rulings based on emotions, (little) understanding & a false sense of nationalism. I am leaving out corruption since they are being watched closely.
*What's the progress? Why has the hearing been delayed?*

KPC: The case is just a spoiler. They want KK to deposit 1bn+ with the court to 'guarantee' payment IF they win the countersuit vs KK. It is an attempt at blackmail since KK as won the earlier case against KPC except the (misguided) judges thought the award was too high. It was sent back to the arbitrator.

*What's the progress with the arbitration?*
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#2170 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 9:23:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20


@VVS will kestrel put in the bid for KK?? Is Kestrel carrying out due diligence for Puma??

if in Zambia they offered 1205 up from 875 that is a useless gain for 2 whole years waiting for a deal...

KK shareholders should not be shocked if Puma offers 17bob because that is a serious gain from the average price before the cautionary statement!

If the deal falls through i will gladly buy at 8-9bob!

btw the KK shares i sold at 14bob to buy KCB @ 25bob have already made me a cool 12% smile



Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
259 Pages«<215216217218219>»
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