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Law Capping interest rates
tom_boy
#2131 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 12:06:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
wukan wrote:
Ngalaka wrote:
tom_boy wrote:



Let me advance my River road economic theory a bit further.

Other than our ' western economists' spelling doom and gloom for banks and the economy due to rate caps, I fail to see how rate caps can be bad for the the middle class, if indeed middle class drive this economy. We have a middle class that cannot afford 150/- unga so now we have subsidized unga at 90/-. But carry on

Lack of access to loans by middle class means less purchasing of imported, useless luxury, consumption items. How can this be bad for the economy?You do realize by economics we simply mean what ordinary folks do to improve their welfare i.e. standard of living by being productive. If there is demand for useless luxury items then someone has to supply

It means less buying of useless pieces of land to hold for x years and sell to the next sucker that comes along. Means less land price inflation. How can this be bad for Kenya? Isn't the market rewarding the person who took the risk to hold that useless piece of land for x years who then sells and improves his living standard. Isn't that person important in the economy for taking that risk of holding useless pieces of land. You do know land transactions support a whole chain of people lawyers,
valuers, brokers etc.


It means less building of mansions in remote places on loan and spending in ordinate amounts of fuel and time getting to and from work while struggling to pay off your loan. How is this bad on a macro economic scale? You think the fundis building those mansions don't need employment. Does it mean the person who built that mansion will now afford land near the city?

It means better planned and executed businesses with proper records and a growth plan , eager to build a credit history and maintain a good credit rating so as to attract cheap bank credit. If your customers can't afford your goods and services in cash or on credit(collapse of purchasing power) your meticulous business plan will not survive first contact with the market.

It means no more bank funded side hussles like taxi business on loan from an unsecured salary loan. Businesses that inevitably fail or remain mediocre at best despite rosy initial projection. Aren't those side hussles responding to consumer demand and isn't the economy the sum total of all those exchanges of goods and services. The only issue is no bank worth it's name will risk it's capital and deposits to fund such a venture at 14% interest. At 23% interest those side 'hussles' were breaking even and thriving

Any seasoned entreprenuer will tell you that you dont need loads of cash to succeed. Infact, too much cash at the beginning will be your down fall.Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You're kidding right?

My river road economic theory is based on above observations. In my view, a bit of starvation and dieting from credit, useless credit that does not help a business grow, is a good thing. This is terrible theoryPray Pray Pray but from the comments on this thread actually this is economic thinking ruling this time. How about we starve the govt it doesn't need all the useless credit it's taking.

I am still waiting for the example of a 35% return business that woul qualify for a well regulated bank loan.

Are you for real!
d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!




Obviously you guys dont get it.

The things I call useless are things that dont build real wealth for this country. You mention lawyers, brokers etc in land transactions. It is precisely because of such thinking that our economy is so skewed. We have lawyers, accountants being so wealthy rather than have real business that creates and distributes wealth preferably in manufacturing, agriculture.

Just because a guy cannot build 70km from nairobi on loan, does not mean construction will cease. Chances are, the money that would have been used to pay usurious interest will end up in a fund somewhere, either in the bank, insurance or coop. This money will still find its way to real estate without the hyper inflation in land prices.

The problem with these ' westetn economists' is they have read many books but fail to translate it to reality. Wanjiku has never benefitted much from bank loans. Mind you, I said benefitted. Not that they did not used to get the loan but the loans were seldom useful in creating wealth for the individual due to high interest.

Large corporates are not affected. Their rates were preferential anyway.

Kenyan Middle class, whatever your definition are the ones who take loans for side hussles, land, building, tenders etc. That is the bulk of loans. Very few go to serious businesses and those serious businesses cannot survive at 25% interest.

These are facts. Keep laughing.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
actuarywahisa
#2132 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 12:11:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/21/2014
Posts: 184
Ericsson wrote:
Yaani people have time to respond to tom_boy
All the best


What makes tom_boy mad? Ama you'll classify me as mad as well for asking that? Laughing out loudly

First, Economic theory is not a science!

Secondly, why shouldn't someone respond if they are willing and have the time? I though this is a discussion forum and knowledge sharing is the spirit of Wazua. Watch out not to fall from that horse. Drool
There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
tom_boy
#2133 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 12:28:32 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
wukan wrote:
Ngalaka wrote:
tom_boy wrote:



Let me advance my River road economic theory a bit further.

Other than our ' western economists' spelling doom and gloom for banks and the economy due to rate caps, I fail to see how rate caps can be bad for the the middle class, if indeed middle class drive this economy. We have a middle class that cannot afford 150/- unga so now we have subsidized unga at 90/-. But carry on

Lack of access to loans by middle class means less purchasing of imported, useless luxury, consumption items. How can this be bad for the economy?You do realize by economics we simply mean what ordinary folks do to improve their welfare i.e. standard of living by being productive. If there is demand for useless luxury items then someone has to supply if all we are purchasing is imported junk, how does this translate to growth of our economy. How does getting a loan to import mitumba increase the country's productivity.

It means less buying of useless pieces of land to hold for x years and sell to the next sucker that comes along. Means less land price inflation. How can this be bad for Kenya? Isn't the market rewarding the person who took the risk to hold that useless piece of land for x years who then sells and improves his living standard. Isn't that person important in the economy for taking that risk of holding useless pieces of land. You do know land transactions support a whole chain of people lawyers,
valuers, brokers etc.
this thinking right there is what is wrong with ' western economist'. How does hoarding land, just because you can, translate to overall social good. Why is it evil to hoard unga so as to sell at a higher price later, but perfectly all right to hoard land and we call this economic freedom. Land is a limited resource. It should be managed to produce maximum return for the country.

It means less building of mansions in remote places on loan and spending in ordinate amounts of fuel and time getting to and from work while struggling to pay off your loan. How is this bad on a macro economic scale? You think the fundis building those mansions don't need employment. Does it mean the person who built that mansion will now afford land near the city? people will be more inclined to pool resources and build. Construction will go on.

It means better planned and executed businesses with proper records and a growth plan , eager to build a credit history and maintain a good credit rating so as to attract cheap bank credit. If your customers can't afford your goods and services in cash or on credit(collapse of purchasing power) your meticulous business plan will not survive first contact with the market. I will not even respond to this.

It means no more bank funded side hussles like taxi business on loan from an unsecured salary loan. Businesses that inevitably fail or remain mediocre at best despite rosy initial projection. Aren't those side hussles responding to consumer demand and isn't the economy the sum total of all those exchanges of goods and services. The only issue is no bank worth it's name will risk it's capital and deposits to fund such a venture at 14% interest. At 23% interest those side 'hussles' were breaking even and thriving talked like a true theory person. Which side hussle can survive when started on a 25% interest loan. Wacha siasa bwana. Lets be practical. Hata matatu haiwezi.

Any seasoned entreprenuer will tell you that you dont need loads of cash to succeed. Infact, too much cash at the beginning will be your down fall.Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly You're kidding right? no I am not .

My river road economic theory is based on above observations. In my view, a bit of starvation and dieting from credit, useless credit that does not help a business grow, is a good thing. This is terrible theoryPray Pray Pray but from the comments on this thread actually this is economic thinking ruling this time. How about we starve the govt it doesn't need all the useless credit it's taking.

I am still waiting for the example of a 35% return business that woul qualify for a well regulated bank loan.

Are you for real!
d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
wukan
#2134 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 12:36:12 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
Ericsson wrote:
Yaani people have time to respond to tom_boy
All the best


Actually engaging tom_boy is much more fun than discussing IEBC registers. I like his wanjiku type thinking he makes a good economics student. I'm testing theories here
wukan
#2135 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 12:45:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
@tom_boy you do realize that 3m loan at 25% for 1 year will only cost you just 421K in interest. If you import Japanese mitumba cars, buy and sell maize, buy and sell plots, trade shares you can still make a small margin and repay the loan. If you don't have that credit at 14% then does that not limit your economic activities.
smartbull
#2136 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 2:36:00 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/27/2016
Posts: 12
Location: Nairobi
My River road theory understanding, banks have made it just a little bit difficult to access credit to people and businesses, slowing down growth and consumption that was being fueled by credit, this might be good to a certain extent but it will also affect adversely growth and sustainability of well managed businesses that were doing biashara with the likes of akina Nakumatt,Uchumi,Maina wa WIre etc.
You can say after this there will be many failed businesses, relationships,chamas and mama mboga stall who have sold on credit to this household.
Its just but a wait and see
tom_boy
#2137 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 2:43:15 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
wukan wrote:
@tom_boy you do realize that 3m loan at 25% for 1 year will only cost you just 421K in interest. If you import Japanese mitumba cars, buy and sell maize, buy and sell plots, trade shares you can still make a small margin and repay the loan. If you don't have that credit at 14% then does that not limit your economic activities.


Very good, now we are getting somewhere.

So, is it your position that giving people loans to buy mitumba cars and sell to others ( on loan) is a sound way to grow the economy?
Do you realise the opportunity cost is that businesses ( manufacturing, agric, tourism) that need 14% loans are denied a facility in favour of 25% mitumba dealer. How does this grow the economy?

Which bank has ever given a loan, even at that 25%, to a broker whose MAIN job is agricultural commodities. No other stable income source to service the loan. My point, this broker, without a salary, but able to access 25% loan to buy and sell maize, is a figment of the imagination of ' western economic theorists'. Assuming this guy has another regular income and was able to service a 25% loan in the past, why deny him a 14% loan to continue with his business? How has the risk changed? If he did not default at 25%, why should he default at 14% thus justify denying him the facility.

Encouraging people to buy, hoard and sell plots on 25% interest loans? How does this help the economy? Why dont we also encourage them to buy , hoard and sell maize to the highest bidder?

Shares? Buying shares on loan? Is this a business? Can a bank loan money to such a business?

25% interest encourages banks to loan to sectors/ individuals they should not be loaning money to in the first place. Secondly, it denies real business people, in manufacturing, agric, technology, construction, the money they need to grow as they are forced to compete for credit with conspicuos consumers.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
wukan
#2138 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 3:57:12 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
tom_boy wrote:
wukan wrote:
@tom_boy you do realize that 3m loan at 25% for 1 year will only cost you just 421K in interest. If you import Japanese mitumba cars, buy and sell maize, buy and sell plots, trade shares you can still make a small margin and repay the loan. If you don't have that credit at 14% then does that not limit your economic activities.


Very good, now we are getting somewhere.No we are not because you want to control the markets

So, is it your position that giving people loans to buy mitumba cars and sell to others ( on loan) is a sound way to grow the economy?
Do you realise the opportunity cost is that businesses ( manufacturing, agric, tourism) that need 14% loans are denied a facility in favour of 25% mitumba dealer. How does this grow the economy? Satisfying Consumer demand to improve lifestyle that's how the economy grows. Mitumba cars sell like hot cake especially with young upwardly mobile 24 year olds. The cars consume fuel as they go to Naivasha to revel and helps tourism too. KRA gets duty, KPA staff, broker at the port gets a salary plus the prisoner making the number plates, the insurance guy, Omosh the mechanic etc.

Which bank has ever given a loan, even at that 25%, to a broker whose MAIN job is agricultural commodities. No other stable income source to service the loan. My point, this broker, without a salary, but able to access 25% loan to buy and sell maize, is a figment of the imagination of ' western economic theorists'. Assuming this guy has another regular income and was able to service a 25% loan in the past, why deny him a 14% loan to continue with his business? How has the risk changed? If he did not default at 25%, why should he default at 14% thus justify denying him the facility. In a credit crunch there is a flight to quality borrowers. That guy is low quality borrower, he is the last in line he can only attract capital at 25% because govt a prime borrower attracts capital at 13.5%. Just like my friends and relatives I give them interest free loans they can't pay wont pay so I refuse to lend them cash they end up at the shylock and pawning their furniture at 50% interest. Ask the Youth fund how many guys repay the 8% loans or HELB loans.

Encouraging people to buy, hoard and sell plots on 25% interest loans? How does this help the economy? Why dont we also encourage them to buy , hoard and sell maize to the highest bidder? Refer to my earlier comment

Shares? Buying shares on loan? Is this a business? Can a bank loan money to such a business? Yes banks were lending like crazy for the Safaricom IPO.
Such were the good timessmile


25% interest encourages banks to loan to sectors/ individuals they should not be loaning money to in the first place. Secondly, it denies real business people, in manufacturing, agric, technology, construction, the money they need to grow as they are forced to compete for credit with conspicuos consumers.In the market it's willing buyer willing seller. 25% circulates cash in the economy, 14% only the govt and prime borrowers get credit. The consumer who would have bought the mitumba car foregoes consumption, and without his usual side hussles he consumes less goods and services then next nakumatt is not doing well,
deacons is not doing well etc.

aemathenge
#2139 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 4:51:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
It feels great to really laugh out loud.

I have no had this much fun in a long while.
lochaz-index
#2140 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 5:25:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
alotoftalk wrote:
If and when Kenyan banks return to the era of making super-normal profits it will be after 2019.

2017 - interest caps
2018 - IFRS 9 impact
2019 - upgrade of IT systems/recapitalization

https://www.euromoney.co...osive-effects-of-ifrs-9

http://www.moodysanalyti...mpact-banks-information

Agreed. With the macros/economy on a southwards trajectory the impact of those changes will be all the more accentuated. The economy will take some time to mend as will the banks' balance sheets and earnings.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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