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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mlennyma
#2111 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2016 6:48:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
For TA Fans, NSE20 is currently testing the monthly support clusters below. The furthest point is 12 years ago.

3157 - January 2004
3175 - February 2004
3158 - April 2004
3098 - January 2005
3126 - March 2005
3198 - January 2009
3102 - August 2009
3189 - October 2009
3155 - November 2011

Viewing the market like a machine smile


If we get to 2005 levels that would be a nightmare Pray

lastly the bull was seen with a brocken leg supported with sticks
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#2112 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2016 9:37:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
The pessimism towards the NSE has increased, most believe it can only go lower. the market goes opposite to what the crowd believes
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#2113 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2016 9:57:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week.

The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier.

@whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.

NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.

If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom!


If you're not a prophet you're the closest we have in wazua. Going through the links above for last year, it's amazing. Pinning for that double bottom!!

Remember you asked " I'm i the only crazy one to short KE banks? " then we didn't really see, that's a 40% haircut since then. Even without the rate cup bank stocks had sagged significantly . How do you do it. Clap clap πŸ‘
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Metasploit
#2114 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2016 10:07:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Between June 2009-Sep 2013 Equity bank exchange 2B shares

Between June 2015 and Sep 2016 Equity has exchanged 1.3B shares with the last two months doing 240M shares

β€œThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Metasploit
#2115 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2016 10:14:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week.

The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier.

@whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.

NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.

If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom!


If you're not a prophet you're the closest we have in wazua. Going through the links above for last year, it's amazing. Pinning for that double bottom!!

Remember you asked " I'm i the only crazy one to short KE banks? " then we didn't really see, that's a 40% haircut since then. Even without the rate cup bank stocks had sagged significantly . How do you do it. Clap clap πŸ‘


Hisah is BAD..I have just learnt you can do double bottom over longer spans of time

This guy analysed the disconnect between treasury and CBK and the growing pessimism on banks and predicted regulation of banks to curb the negative social mood..I cant dig the thread
Negative social mood leads to populist politics.

β€œThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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mnandii
#2116 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2016 10:35:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Unlike most here (and that is usually the case with Elliott Waves i.e contrarianism), I expect a much bigger fall in the NSE 20 share index. You see, some people are still not convinced of the BIG BEAR at hand. That's why people are calling for some bottom soon! The point of recognition for most guys is coming soon. This is NOT a time to indulge in ANY stocks, most eespecially SAFARICOM. The coming dividend is fooling people. You should balance between the expected dividend and the potential capital LOSS on the stock.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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wukan
#2117 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2016 10:40:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
Reading Smart Company today Insurance companies change tact and abandon NSE stocks, 2 weeks back the pension schemes were moving to fixed income. Who is buying the shares apart from the hot money foreigners?
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Spikes
#2118 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2016 10:41:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mnandii wrote:
Unlike most here (and that is usually the case with Elliott Waves i.e contrarianism), I expect a much bigger fall in the NSE 20 share index. You see, some people are still not convinced of the BIG BEAR at hand. That's why people are calling for some bottom soon! The point of recognition for most guys is coming soon. This is NOT a time to indulge in ANY stocks, most eespecially SAFARICOM. The coming dividend is fooling people. You should balance between the expected dividend and the potential capital LOSS on the stock.



Applause Applause Applause Tell them nowsmile
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, β€œMy Father is always working, and so am I.”
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VituVingiSana
#2119 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2016 10:57:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
Reading Smart Company today Insurance companies change tact and abandon NSE stocks, 2 weeks back the pension schemes were moving to fixed income. Who is buying the shares apart from the hot money foreigners?
We are greedy (sensibly so) when others are fearful - Warren Buffett
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#2120 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2016 12:13:53 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Metasploit wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week.

The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier.

@whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.

NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.

If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom!


If you're not a prophet you're the closest we have in wazua. Going through the links above for last year, it's amazing. Pinning for that double bottom!!

Remember you asked " I'm i the only crazy one to short KE banks? " then we didn't really see, that's a 40% haircut since then. Even without the rate cup bank stocks had sagged significantly . How do you do it. Clap clap πŸ‘


Hisah is BAD..I have just learnt you can do double bottom over longer spans of time

This guy analysed the disconnect between treasury and CBK and the growing pessimism on banks and predicted regulation of banks to curb the negative social mood..I cant dig the thread
Negative social mood leads to populist politics.

@aguy, I'm no prophet and neither are the TA guys who called the ensuing correction. When you participate in the market long enough that experience becomes your guidance.

@metaspoilt, @mnandii is the one who initiated the negative social mood discussion when he started this thread. Strong bears over a long time-frame always cause negative social moods. The ruling class as well as politicians then resort to populism to try and appease the masses from a revolt.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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