wazua Sun, Jan 12, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

186 Pages«<1920212223>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Aguytrying
#401 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 6:55:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.


The index is down mainly due to the profit taking on Safcom. Once that is taken care of the wave will def show an upward trend.

If you can, please generate last year's chart. Esp from Mar 2014


At first I also thought it was a correction. but some signs of a bear started popping up.

safaricom price dipping after announcing record +30% profits and dividend.

foreigners being on sell side the whole of this year .

HFCK and NIC trading close and below rights issue price! despite stellar results.

barclays trading at 15.00, find out the last time that happened

NMG threatening to go below 200. in the last bear it was at 150.

ARM sinking to 74. This is the darling of NSE previously flirting with 90. A Broker even gave a buy recommendation to 150 recently.

the spike of the kshs. remember that was there in 2011 too.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mnandii
#402 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 9:23:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Quote:
The “million dollars” that a wealthy investor might have thought he had in his bond portfolio or at a stock’s peak value can quite rapidly become $50,000 or $5000 or $50. The rest of it just disappears. You see, he never really had a million dollars; all he had was IOUs or stock certificates. The idea that it had a certain financial value was in his head and the heads of others who agreed. When the point of agreement changed, so did the value. Poof! Gone in a flash of aggregated neurons.

Conquer the Crash, third edition



Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...rchives/2015/05/22/Poof!-How-Stock-Market-Gains-Can-Rapidly-Evaporate.aspx#ixzz3awM3bDud
Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#403 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 9:26:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
winmak wrote:
Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what their actions have on stability of the market


Aaaah..

Their actions have no effect on the stability of the market!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#404 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 9:34:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mkonomtupu wrote:
@growing what you are seeing above is the intermediate and minor wave. Its a wave within a wave (yaani unaona mawimbi na tsunami yaja). If you go Post#1 in this thread you will see the Cycle wave(yaani tsunami) represented by upper case Roman numerals(I, II, III,IV,V, a,b,c) where I-V are the basic 5 wave impulse sequence(tukienda juu) and a,b,c is the 3 wave corrective sequence(tukirudi chini). What @mnandii is telling you we are about to hit wave c corrective sequence.


smile smile

Nice to find a fellow Elliottician in wazua!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
winmak
#405 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 3:57:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Sometimes I think these policy makers don't care what their actions have on stability of the market


Aaaah..

Their actions have no effect on the stability of the market!



Imposing CGT in a predicted bear year contributes to the instability...
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
murchr
#406 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 5:02:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NSE? Your pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.


The index is down mainly due to the profit taking on Safcom. Once that is taken care of the wave will def show an upward trend.

If you can, please generate last year's chart. Esp from Mar 2014


At first I also thought it was a correction. but some signs of a bear started popping up.

safaricom price dipping after announcing record +30% profits and dividend. This was expected here on wazua, we all knew the mad rally was guys buying the rumor waiting to peddle the news. That 30+% profit was already factored in the price at 17.9

foreigners being on sell side the whole of this year. Foreigners are seeing better opportunities in NG after elections, after they make their money there they will definitely come back

HFCK and NIC trading close and below rights issue price! despite stellar results. Speculators are causing this, i've seen this before and its exaggerated by low trade volumes. A buy for me

barclays trading at 15.00, find out the last time that happened This counter's 52 wk high is 18.xy, hii ni correction tu

NMG threatening to go below 200. in the last bear it was at 150. It will, investors dont have confidence on the business books closure was yesterday

ARM sinking to 74. This is the darling of NSE previously flirting with 90. A Broker even gave a buy recommendation to 150 recently. This one even at 70 its overvalued

the spike of the kshs. remember that was there in 2011 too. The shilling will continue to lose value against the dollar for quite a while until we change our import quotas. Obama land economy is on fire..So far i dont see anything stopping that


These are just my opinions and they may not hold water. But we saw this happen in 2013 if we're analyzing behaviors

#423 Posted : Saturday, May 11, 2013 7:20:10 AM

Cde Monomotapa wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
We are heading for a bear run which is starting

Scom broke from the pack. Let it carry its own cross Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly though some weakness is being observed else where too. Next week will be interesting.

I like the 'personification' of the counter!

smile


http://wazua.co.ke/forum...sts&t=21259&p=22
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mulla
#407 Posted : Saturday, May 23, 2015 5:26:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.



When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over


@enyands....Looks like you are newbie in stock trading..we are no where near a bear...in a bear market prices will be half what they are now...the social mood will be so depressive even most of those saying they can't wait for the bear to start buying will stay out...when the bear is here no one will be talking stocks...lakini waerevu and strong at mind and heart will take positions because it will be a long time before the chickens come home to roost.
enyands
#408 Posted : Sunday, May 24, 2015 6:21:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
mulla wrote:
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
winmak wrote:
Out of curiosity, Mnandii, do you own any shares in NovYour pessimism of this market is as devoted as the thorough analysis of the same...


I sold my holdings. The thing is, Elliott Wave is an objective approach to analysing a market. If there was short selling existent in the NSE I'd be happy to sell. Imagine my call for NSE to drop below 4900 when it was still at about 5100? Today the target has been met. That is a 200 point move! smile

I concentrate more on forex now.



When will this bear pass mnadii . Do you have an approximate time when it will be over


@enyands....Looks like you are newbie in stock trading..we are no where near a bear...in a bear market prices will be half what they are now...the social mood will be so depressive even most of those saying they can't wait for the bear to start buying will stay out...when the bear is here no one will be talking stocks...lakini waerevu and strong at mind and heart will take positions because it will be a long time before the chickens come home to roost.


@mulla I agree I'm newbie . I believe and more less if someone has something to say , they don't necessarily mean to mislead. I do ask questions to seek reasons. In tthis case with well displayed graphs iv never seen before and well analysis prompts me to believe . I need people like you to question my reason to believe and show me otherwise . For now I'm in between @munadii and @mulla. The real juror is out there I believe
obiero
#409 Posted : Sunday, May 24, 2015 9:30:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,551
Location: nairobi
stock prices follow performance and right now going by results being released, most firms are not well.. esp manufacturing, tourism, real estate

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
mnandii
#410 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 7:43:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
obiero wrote:
stock prices follow performance and right now going by results being released, most firms are not well.. esp manufacturing, tourism, real estate


It will be clear quite soon. Performance, financial or otherwise, follow the stock market which is a register of man's productive capacity.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#411 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 7:59:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Bitcoin really is useful. Just not in the way you think
John Naughton

Quote:
When the banking system went into meltdown in 2008, an intriguing glimpse of an alternative future appeared. On 31 October, an unknown cryptographer who went by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto launched what he described as “a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer to peer, with no trusted third party”. The name he assigned to this new currency was bitcoin.


........because the technology underpinning cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin may turn out to be both transformational and benign in ways that we are just beginning to appreciate.

Why? Well, in essence a blockchain is really a way of using cryptography to certify that a particular token is the property of, or is inextricably connected to, a particular entity. In this particular case, the token is a bitcoin (or part thereof) and the entity is an individual (or an organisation). The blockchain is a dynamic (ie continuously updated) database of who owns (or is connected with) what.

In the real, physical world, we have lots of such databases – think of bank accounts or land registries – but they are records maintained by agencies and organisations, which means that they can be altered, corrupted or lost. So we have to trust the institutions that maintain them, which means trusting outfits like the banks that have just been fined £3.7bn for rigging foreign exchange markets. A blockchain, in contrast, is a public database that is continually maintained and updated by software running on thousands of computers all over the world. And since every change of ownership is publicly logged, the need to trust a (centralised) institution is replaced by the need to trust a highly decentralised network.

The most interesting case I’ve seen so far surfaced the other day when the state of Honduras, one of the poorest countries in Latin America, announced that it was going to use a blockchain to build a permanent and secure land title registry. This is significant because one of the problems that bedevil many – if not most – developing countries is the absence of reliable or uncorrupt land registries.



link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Aguytrying
#412 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 9:18:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@murchur . either we are too pessimistic or your are too optimistic. time will tell.

tell me a stock price that would trigger you to think this is a bear, we see if it will materialize
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#413 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 5:12:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Wazua has been quiet today. Only 2 active threads, and very few posts. Is this the work of the bear.

@mnadii, @ hisah. look at what u did to the people. ha ha.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#414 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 5:15:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii - remember the trouble with the euro chart in the fx thread last year? This calls for the trouble with the NASI alert. 2yr support broken down!

NASI 1yr chart and 2yr chart are aligning. Sharp reversal coming up!

USDKES is still bullish and remains on course to test 100/- handle. Not looking good for KES and will badly dent KE econ.





$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Gatheuzi
#415 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 5:43:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
Aguytrying wrote:
Wazua has been quite today. Only 2 active threads, and very few posts. Is this the work of the bear.

@mnadii, @ hisah. look at what u did to the people. ha ha.

Iam LMAO smile . These 2 guys are running the show now. AfroSinema continues shortly..
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
Gatheuzi
#416 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 6:58:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
The bear is at hand guys. Unfortunately many will not 'see' it come until they are consumed by it!



Assuming wave (4) is complete (evidence suggests it is ) then we can target the termination of wave (5). Options:

a) Wave (5) being equal to wave (1) then wave (5) terminates at (5100.51-185.8) = 4914.71

b) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 0.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(0.618 X 185.8)] = 4985.69

c) Wave (5) being Fibonacci 1.618 of wave (1) then wave (5) target is [5100.51-(1.618 X 185.8)] = 4799.89

The c option is more likely. I expect lots of volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. In that case an elongated wave (5) would make sense. Also, as I have been saying for sometime, I want a clean break of the NSE 20 Index below 4907 level to increase odds of the bear to almost certainity. Option c would make ensure of that.

Summary:

Expect huge volatility starting tomorrow 11th May. Watch of 4907 level. Re-evaluate your share holdings in the NSE.


The NSE 20 Share Index closes at 4879.95 May, 22nd, And well below our cited previous fourth wave (4907) level.


Index at 4858 on Monday 25th. Closer and closer to scenario c.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
bartum
#417 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2015 7:25:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
come baby come
Othelo
#418 Posted : Wednesday, May 27, 2015 1:31:32 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
When Safcom was trading around 17 bob, @Hisah talked of it going back to 12.50 bob (& likely to trade below that) which looked far fetched then. Now looks reality probably by mid next month if no intervetion comes soon!!!!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
winmak
#419 Posted : Wednesday, May 27, 2015 4:05:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
Othelo wrote:
When Safcom was trading around 17 bob, @Hisah talked of it going back to 12.50 bob (& likely to trade below that) which looked far fetched then. Now looks reality probably by mid next month if no intervetion comes soon!!!!


Interesting scenario... Everyone is holding... When do we start jumping in?
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
Boris Boyka
#420 Posted : Thursday, May 28, 2015 12:15:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Cfc bank @107. Seems 100 could be broken.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
Users browsing this topic
Guest (4)
186 Pages«<1920212223>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.