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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Runner wrote:sparkly wrote:1 January 2016 time to review the thread.
In January 2014, I po predicted that 2014 would be the last good year for stocks.
Advised people to sell before the year 2015, which would be a negative return year for stocks.
Advised people to stay liquid or invest their money elsewhere.
As expected, doubting Thomases were sceptical. The believers believed.
What happened in 2015:
1. NSE Index tanked below 4000.
2. KES/USD shot to 107
3. Poor corporate earnings. 17? profit warnings.
4. T-bills returned as much as 24% at some point.
Bottom line - 2014/5 was time to sell stocks, and be invested in cash/cash equivalents.
The prophesy unravelled right in front of our eyes. What is the prediction for 2016? No respite! http://www.businessdaily...12/-/iclvlq/-/index.html The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Runner wrote:sparkly wrote:1 January 2016 time to review the thread.
In January 2014, I po predicted that 2014 would be the last good year for stocks.
Advised people to sell before the year 2015, which would be a negative return year for stocks.
Advised people to stay liquid or invest their money elsewhere.
As expected, doubting Thomases were sceptical. The believers believed.
What happened in 2015:
1. NSE Index tanked below 4000.
2. KES/USD shot to 107
3. Poor corporate earnings. 17? profit warnings.
4. T-bills returned as much as 24% at some point.
Bottom line - 2014/5 was time to sell stocks, and be invested in cash/cash equivalents.
The prophesy unravelled right in front of our eyes. What is the prediction for 2016? With a record profit warnings, it will take nothing short of a miracle for the index to move up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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PREDICTIONS FOR 2016- Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down. 2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility. Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread"). If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros: 1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017. 2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017. 3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016. 4.Centum - 80 by December 2016. 5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. GOK already taking up 70% by conversion, no failure.Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. Agreed. In hfck 50.00 would imply a very high pe, remember rights dilution. That can only materialise in a proper bull run The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I think the market will be relatively flat in 2016 +-10% range and it will be time to plant The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. GOK already taking up 70% by conversion, no failure.Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. That's like saying KQ had a successful Rights Issue. Good luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. GOK already taking up 70% by conversion, no failure.Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. That's like saying KQ had a successful Rights Issue. Good luck. Are we discussing Kengen or KQ? Focus @VVS Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
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