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When is the Next NSE Bus Leaving the Stage
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Mukiri wrote:
So sell, sell sell?
.... or buy buy buy? Sociopolitical factors are pointing down but economic factors are pointing up. What wins? My 2 cents, takes profit where its deserved, hold what is very valuable and buy in bucketload incase the market plunge. In all, have your ear on the ground and review strategy suitably
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:holycow wrote:hisah wrote:Heavy turnover today on EQTY, KCB and EABL - All above 100M. Mpesa bank has also seen a lot of turnover since last week.
Hii pesa inatoka wapi... Let me make a guess. Matured T-bills/bonds that have not been rolled back due to low rates hence Stocks forming the alternative. Those are heavy maturities, but smart money never chase buses since they form the buses... Still don't make sense why the clamour to board at these lofty heights - most above 50%...  I think people will be left holding temporary " monkeys" before election. this market cant go on like this through elections. im even surprised it has got to where it has @aguy as it has been said, mr market is never rational. We gladly take the good deals he throws at us and say thank you  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote: Still don't make sense why the clamour to board at these lofty heights - most above 50%... @hisah unfortunately its investors like you that get into markets at peaks after reassurance of economic recovery... all the way from 3,000 on the NSE 20 you have been on the sidelines!! When will you finally get in?? 5,000?? 7,000?? 9,000?? 15,000?? We as skilled investors must know that on our NSE: 1. Plenty of stocks have 6%+ dividend yields!! 2. Plenty of stocks are trading close to their book values!! 3. Plenty of stocks have single digit P/Es According to prolific investors like buffet this is a time to buy buy buy buy buy buy buy no matter the circumstances!! Madam guru has declared I'm a classic wanjiku. If I were QW wacha tu $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:hisah wrote: Still don't make sense why the clamour to board at these lofty heights - most above 50%... @hisah unfortunately its investors like you that get into markets at peaks after reassurance of economic recovery... all the way from 3,000 on the NSE 20 you have been on the sidelines!! When will you finally get in?? 5,000?? 7,000?? 9,000?? 15,000?? We as skilled investors must know that on our NSE: 1. Plenty of stocks have 6%+ dividend yields!! 2. Plenty of stocks are trading close to their book values!! 3. Plenty of stocks have single digit P/Es According to prolific investors like buffet this is a time to buy buy buy buy buy buy buy no matter the circumstances!! Madam guru has declared I'm a classic wanjiku. If I were QW wacha tu my apologies  but seriously, i don't know why you just don't buy??? We'll talk again at 5,000!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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4500 is the highest we can go in the current bull run before we go back to the 3200-4200 range, in a bull run people always think the bear will not show up next door...infact in 2010 there were threads here saying 5000...5000 but 3072 showed up first!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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We may close 2012 @4,000 but whatever correction comes i still maintain that provided Uhuru does not win and elections go smoothly we will close 2013 @5,500-6,000 on the 20 index! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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guru267 wrote:We may close 2012 @4,000 but whatever correction comes i still maintain that provided Uhuru does not win and elections go smoothly we will close 2013 @5,500-6,000 on the 20 index! I SECOND
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:hisah wrote: Still don't make sense why the clamour to board at these lofty heights - most above 50%... @hisah unfortunately its investors like you that get into markets at peaks after reassurance of economic recovery... all the way from 3,000 on the NSE 20 you have been on the sidelines!! When will you finally get in?? 5,000?? 7,000?? 9,000?? 15,000?? We as skilled investors must know that on our NSE: 1. Plenty of stocks have 6%+ dividend yields!! 2. Plenty of stocks are trading close to their book values!! 3. Plenty of stocks have single digit P/Es According to prolific investors like buffet this is a time to buy buy buy buy buy buy buy no matter the circumstances!! Madam guru has declared I'm a classic wanjiku. If I were QW wacha tu my apologies but seriously, i don't know why you just don't buy??? We'll talk again at 5,000!! I got mpesa bank (been a lonely ride with @dunkang & @maka - my largest play btw), kcb, hfck and eabl. Picked up kengen just for div, but will add more exdiv. So far so good. But all speculation plays failed - MSC (sold flat), Coop (sold flat) and KQ (rights issue from hell messed the contra play at 17 - sold at 15).
Roll call Mpesa bank, KCB, EABL, HFCK & Kengen. So mimi siko kwa sidelines, but itching to take soon profits. Elections itching that cash out trigger.
Waiting for 2013 politics wind to ebb then kk & total come into focus. Total has been trashed almost 3yrs - looks like BP stock before the big move...
Outside we've made plenty with Africa oil with @mainat & others.
Forex - Indian rupee & SA rand have offered nice returns.
That's the small summary.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/736shiz/-/index.html So this explains those EABL huge bids as well as mpesa bank pushing to 5/- levels. Btw if EABL bids continue like this, a Bralirwa trend is on the cards. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Btw if EABL bids continue like this, a Bralirwa trend is on the cards. Have wazuans ever thought of EABL putting in a bid for a majority stake of Bralirwa to expand their market?? Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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guru267 wrote:We may close 2012 @4,000 but whatever correction comes i still maintain that provided Uhuru does not win and elections go smoothly we will close 2013 @5,500-6,000 on the 20 index! Interesting perspective, I might just adopt it. What is the investor behavior in Dec? With the festivities, January school fees?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Mukiri wrote: Interesting perspective, I might just adopt it.
What is the investor behavior in Dec? With the festivities, January school fees?
Am also trying to look for info on the same too. Share if u analyse the behaviour faster than us. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. nice rap sheet. but do u say? of the following stocks i think it would be wise to take profits now. theres no harm done, if they do go up they can still be bought later. eabl, saf, kcb. nmg , arm, i dont imagine those prices upheld in the next 5 months. on hfck i dont see much downside, but biased as i own shares there(happily) ive been looking at neglected companies total, nbk, cfc bank, knre . food for thought The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Mukiri wrote:guru267 wrote:We may close 2012 @4,000 but whatever correction comes i still maintain that provided Uhuru does not win and elections go smoothly we will close 2013 @5,500-6,000 on the 20 index! Interesting perspective, I might just adopt it. What is the investor behavior in Dec? With the festivities, January school fees? The NSE tends to fall during December as people cash out their gains for holidays and school fees! Fund managers like myself also prefer to end the year with cash balances! From beginning of Jan to the 15th the market usually shoots up and then stagnates until the results announcement in march/April! This doesn't happen every year! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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guru267 wrote:Mukiri wrote:guru267 wrote:We may close 2012 @4,000 but whatever correction comes i still maintain that provided Uhuru does not win and elections go smoothly we will close 2013 @5,500-6,000 on the 20 index! Interesting perspective, I might just adopt it. What is the investor behavior in Dec? With the festivities, January school fees? The NSE tends to fall during December as people cash out their gains for holidays and school fees! Fund managers like myself also prefer to end the year with cash balances! From beginning of Jan to the 15th the market usually shoots up and then stagnates until the results announcement in march/April! This doesn't happen every year! Cash vis-ä-vis 3 month TBills? Considering elections
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Neveready trades 4M shares today?? Can't recall such huge volume on this counter - not evident on the 5yr chart too! The foreigner purchases today on mpesa bank, KCB and EABL with no selling...! I thought as we approach December and with elections near term we would be seeing profit taking. Instead the bids are pressing on the gas! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Mpesa's 70 Million is definitely a shocker. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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85.8 million shares traded as of now for MPESA. This is not Wanjiku volumez. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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dunkang wrote:85.8 million shares traded as of now for MPESA. This is not Wanjiku volumez. Turnover hit almost half a billion i.e. 428M on this counter today! Yep, not wanjiku volume this...
EABL and KCB also finished with turnover above 100M.
At this rate when wanjikus come rushing, they'll be buying at dear heights as they get out-priced. By then it will be too late.
But what is keeping me dazed is the fact that December is a few days away and elections just around the corner, but volumes keep piling up! I can't recall seeing this before.
@wazee vvs/njunge do you recollect such a period?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Btw mpesa bank traded 173M shares this week. If you take an average price of 4.70/- for the week it translates to 813M in turnover. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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