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The stock market has Bottomed
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hisah
#201 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 3:57:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mlennyma wrote:
And mongolia started this way

Yes it did. And that bull was hot for those left behind Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25091985
#202 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 5:59:19 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
for me i have learnt never to argue with the market . i know you can read all the fundamentals and they are showing a slowdown in the economy but the market knows best .
so lets just move with mr.market
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hisah
#203 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 6:18:03 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
QW25091985 wrote:
for me i have learnt never to argue with the market . i know you can read all the fundamentals and they are showing a slowdown in the economy but the market knows best .
so lets just move with mr.market

They say the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. You have to strike a balance especially when Mr Market is irrational compared to the macroeconomic situation.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25091985
#204 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 6:21:39 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
And mongolia started this way

Yes it did. And that bull was hot for those left behind Sad


@mlennyma. is there money in mongolia stock market . are you investing there
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QW25091985
#205 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 6:25:55 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Index 3,628.64 with good volumes and drying supply today. any doubts about this entire topic?

I was expecting 3500 to offer resistance to the bounce, but it has extended to 3600. But if you look at the overall market, this is still a bounce! I'll explain below.

@mwekezaji - the 3yr falling trendline has been broken. However, if you look at all the NSE indices you'll notice FTSE15 has gained the most. This means foreigners are pushing the rally. The rally is also a few selected stocks. A healthy bull (not bounce) pushes everything (is not selective). A bull will also have locals jumping in more thus crowding out foreigners. Remember 2004-2006 period smile

Let's assume eurozone debt crisis blows up (very likely as per CDS market tension). Who will be left to hold the foreigners exit volume in the current NSE scenario? Why are the local funds managers not jumping into this bounce???

I'd call it a selective bounce/rally with a shaky bottom should it unravel due to this bloody dangerous eurozone debt flu...



so you are saying if this stock market rally is a fake we will fall back to 3k mark and below ??? wow .really donot see it that way .when we were at close to the 3k mark i remember volumes were in the millions of shares traded . now we have a rally and the index is doing a very healthy amount of shares changing hands . that says market participant are keen on pushing the index up than letting it fall
am looking at the trillion shilling turnover and huge buying pattern of foreigners and am seeing this rally is for sure . it just that they sneaked their way in and now are going to enjoy the rally that is coming
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hisah
#206 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 6:31:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@QW - Between a solid bottom volume and selective (stocks) bottom volume, which one has lasting power... Why the selectiveness of this volume if the recovery is solid and based on macroeconomics? Why are industrials being sidelined. They form a solid spine of the economy...

My only guess for now is these selective buying is capital flight from euroland. Otherwise it doesn't make sense.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#207 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 6:34:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
In the meantime just watch the euroland drama...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#208 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 8:06:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
And I can see 'greens' all over today with turnover just shy of 500 million

Aguytrying, KCB broke the 24/= barrier jana...

Na hii Uchumi haishi mafuta kwani?smile


Applause Applause noticed it with much delight. That was one tough barrier i tell you! Lets see where it'll be by monday. Nataka kushuka niingoje 15.00.
Yeah it sounds very unlikely, but with elections coming this market rally should screech to a sudden halt.
THough the EPS is high, and if interest rates are lowered? we'll see.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#209 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 8:15:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
@QW - Between a solid bottom volume and selective (stocks) bottom volume, which one has lasting power... Why the selectiveness of this volume if the recovery is solid and based on macroeconomics? Why are industrials being sidelined. They form a solid spine of the economy...

My only guess for now is these selective buying is capital flight from euroland. Otherwise it doesn't make sense.


I dont also believe this "bull"/calf/rally. Im not getting caught up in the excitement. This optimism will die down before elections and hopefully no eurozone drama, that would be catastrophic.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#210 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2012 11:00:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Index 3,628.64 with good volumes and drying supply today. any doubts about this entire topic?

I was expecting 3500 to offer resistance to the bounce, but it has extended to 3600. But if you look at the overall market, this is still a bounce! I'll explain below.

@mwekezaji - the 3yr falling trendline has been broken. However, if you look at all the NSE indices you'll notice FTSE15 has gained the most. This means foreigners are pushing the rally. The rally is also a few selected stocks. A healthy bull (not bounce) pushes everything (is not selective). A bull will also have locals jumping in more thus crowding out foreigners. Remember 2004-2006 period smile

Let's assume eurozone debt crisis blows up (very likely as per CDS market tension). Who will be left to hold the foreigners exit volume in the current NSE scenario? Why are the local funds managers not jumping into this bounce???

I'd call it a selective bounce/rally with a shaky bottom should it unravel due to this bloody dangerous eurozone debt flu...


3637.08! Another high!! And on good volumes!!! smile

@hisah, all indices are up Year To Date. We cant expect them to be up by the same margin

FTSE NSE 15 - 19% {(107.12-90.31)/90.31}
FTSE NSE 25 – 18% {(109.44-92.64)/92.64}
NASI – 16% {(79.19-68.03)/68.03}
NSE-20 – 13% {(3637.08-3205.02)/3205.02}

Note the NSE All Share Index is up 16% this year and local participation in the market has been over 60%.

However, am also approaching this market with great caution. The Euro remains a great risks, our 2011 economic growth was a mere 4.4%, 2012 economic outlook is dim, and then there is the 2013 political risk … Sad
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 15, 2012 11:13 PM | Reason: Not specified
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