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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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alutacontinua
#2031 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2016 7:00:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
[quote=lochaz-index]A banking crisis is coming to KE, not even the best efforts by the governor will avert it. Illiquidity is any bank's worst nightmare. If all the means of liquidity provision are failing then there can only be one eventuality...we are yet to see the worst from the banking sector followed by a consolidation thereafter.
http://www.businessdaily...24462-avjf3l/index.html[/quote]

https://centralbank.go.k...pervision-annual-report

Non-Performing loans in the industry increased by 36% to Ksh. 147B in 2015 Sad
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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lochaz-index
#2032 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 8:20:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.

Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.

Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.

Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.

Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.

Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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hisah
#2033 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 3:36:01 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.

Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.

Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.

Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.

Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.

Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end.

I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.

What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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obiero
#2034 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 8:34:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.

Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.

Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.

Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.

Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.

Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end.

I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.

What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!

That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management..

KQ ABP 4.26
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muandiwambeu
#2035 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 9:01:35 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.

Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.

Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.

Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.

Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.

Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end.

I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.

What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!

That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management..

and third, capping of interest rate never sees the light of the day. many banks will find it more difficult to reign on cost after a enjoying lucrative lending rates. that law will be a socker.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2036 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 10:03:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
I asked here who is the chairman of KCB and no one understood my question. What are his qualifications? Was his appointment by merit or political, given elections are around the corner and somebody might be looking for Eazzyloansmile .
Therein lies the answers to Mr.Market's spanking of this stockSad
@SufficientlyP
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lochaz-index
#2037 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 10:07:05 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.

Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.

Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.

Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.

Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.

Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end.

I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.

What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!

That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management..

I had the opportunity to go through Kcb's Q1 results...needless to say I was not impressed (I posted my thoughts here but I can't remember which thread) and neither has been Mr market so far.

They have been pushing the envelope for quite a while especially on NPL's and this continues to haunt them after HY numbers. A worsening loan book and collaterals is a bad mix.

The main threat however lies in a liquidity squeeze. If banks are not able to meet near term withdrawal demands and there is no effective liquidity provision mechanism, this is a ticking time bomb. Another bank collapse will not be taken kindly by the masses...a cascade of bank runs and more collapses.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero
#2038 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 10:12:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.

Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.

Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.

Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.

Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.

Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end.

I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.

What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!

That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management..

I had the opportunity to go through Kcb's Q1 results...needless to say I was not impressed (I posted my thoughts here but I can't remember which thread) and neither has been Mr market so far.

They have been pushing the envelope for quite a while especially on NPL's and this continues to haunt them after HY numbers. A worsening loan book and collaterals is a bad mix.

The main threat however lies in a liquidity squeeze. If banks are not able to meet near term withdrawal demands and there is no effective liquidity provision mechanism, this is a ticking time bomb. Another bank collapse will not be taken kindly by the masses...a cascade of bank runs and more collapses.

@lochaz-index right on the money with your arguments. further the business segment has adopted a wait and see for the interest rate movement plus 2017 approaches, terrible combination for lenders

KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana
#2039 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 12:05:55 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
KCB is too big to fail meaning Njoroge will open the flood-gates for KCB. Any withdrawal will be met courtesy of CBK. That doesn't mean the brand and Balance Sheet will not be damaged.

If there is a run on KCB which will be met by CBK pumping in liquidity... the brand will suffer. As is, I think KCB's customer service is crap but many parastatals use it as do their suppliers.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2040 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 12:10:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
KCB is too big to fail meaning Njoroge will open the flood-gates for KCB. Any withdrawal will be met courtesy of CBK. That doesn't mean the brand and Balance Sheet will not be damaged.

If there is a run on KCB which will be met by CBK pumping in liquidity... the brand will suffer. As is, I think KCB's customer service is crap but many parastatals use it as do their suppliers.

A run on simba? Who has even predicted that?

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 10, 2016 12:12 PM | Reason: Not specified
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