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The NSE on a Bear Run
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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guru267 wrote:I now know that the reason K.P.L.C dropped like a bomb with such low volumes... All the money directed at it is waiting for the rights on the N.S.E... I know I am... I'm hoping to bid them up to 21.5 (2shillings premium) for my initial picking then i'll sit back and see how the market values them... And guys you will not believe the volumes K.P.L.C rights will trade tomorrow... Too many of us are after G.O.K's rights....  Amen to that! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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LOL!!! Wacheni mchezo...a bear is at least 30% correction...yaaani this is a small blip,a minor correction(although kina qw have been seriously mauled!!) safcom and industrials might take the puff out of this market...then fears of 2012(pev,ocampo etc) wiil ensure it remains supressed...meanwhile a final rally is in the offing.... The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@the deal. Today the NSE 20 index lost just 4.19 points. Indeed it would have gone up had it not been for EABL which lost 4/=. Note EABL is the company with the 2nd highest market cap (about 14.5% of the total NSE's mkt cap as of today) on the NSE.
I also noted that foreigners were back sniffing for bargains esp on KCB, Safaricom, Equity Bank and wonder of wonders - Access.
I am also looking at the ticker for Wall Street and it looks like today's session is smoking hot with all 3 major indices up by over 2% at the halfway stage.
I am thinking our market now has all the ingredients for an upward push!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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expect at least a rally of 600pts by june...alafu tufunge virago mpaka 2013 as IDP's lol!! The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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SHEEP: It's you again!Well...if you bolt from NSE till 2013;that time you will be gone- I'll be buying big time.By the time you comeback(2013),I'll shave you without water!!! Like someone said:Be fearful when others are greedy;and be greedy when others are fearful!Be a true contrarian !!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@mwanahisa i don't have todays closing data but i believe the NSE closed lower...that will be a 9 day losing streak the further we continue the further the NSE will go down...
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2010 Posts: 116
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I think instead of invest in KPLC right issue, invest that money to other counters. Now price are good so you will make more money. like Kenol @ 9.80, KCB @ 21.50, SCBK @ 260, Eqity @ 25.75, DTB @ 130. You might get in April 2011 Kenol @13, KCB @ 26, SCBK @295, Equity @ 28, DTB @ 180.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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KIRTI wrote:I think instead of invest in KPLC right issue, invest that money to other counters. Now price are good so you will make more money. like Kenol @ 9.80, KCB @ 21.50, SCBK @ 260, Eqity @ 25.75, DTB @ 130. You might get in April 2011 Kenol @13, KCB @ 26, SCBK @295, Equity @ 28, DTB @ 180. I agree on you on the other counters you presented and the projection, i disagree strongly that any of the aforementioned counters is anywhere near there rights, one because they will not be there come Christmas. This is an opportunity of a lifetime and to be honest i ha e been waiting for it since 2007. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 439 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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KIRTI wrote:I think instead of invest in KPLC right issue, invest that money to other counters. Now price are good so you will make more money. like Kenol @ 9.80, KCB @ 21.50, SCBK @ 260, Eqity @ 25.75, DTB @ 130. You might get in April 2011 Kenol @13, KCB @ 26, SCBK @295, Equity @ 28, DTB @ 180. @ KIRTI: I have adopted a similar strategy as the bulk of the market gets fixated on KPLC. Some interesting bargains currently exist in the market majority of which you have highlighted above with KenolKobil,DTB and KCB topping the list. KenolKobil and DTB are trading at forward P/Es of between 8-9 while KCB is at a forward P/E of less than 11. Investing in any of the three at current prices should easily deliver a 20% capital return within the next four months. I project a similar capital gain return from KPLC on the best case scenario assuming an investor buys rights at Ksh 3 and pays for the share at Ksh 19.50 (Total of Ksh 22.50). A 20% gain would place the share at Ksh 27. The low unit value of KPLC seems to have attracted the retail/speculative segment of the NSE and my fear is that KPLC will soon have a similar investor profile with Mumias. Share price volatility may thus occur in the short term for KPLC a situation that may trap the share in the Ksh 25-27 range for the good part of 2011 as institutional investors mop up the excess liquidity. It however helps that the GoK will illiquidate half of the KPLC shares. Happy hunting.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,554
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High chance today will be a big rally Meru Holiness
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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11 days loosing streak and counting...come January all those who are selling will have nothing to sell...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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hope the slide continues...December 17th may present a perfect entry point...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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ecstacy wrote:hope the slide continues...December 17th may present a perfect entry point... why not wait until festive season peaks? between 27th-30th..minimal attention on stocks..silence all unnecessary noise..as everyone is out binging on fun. ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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ProverB wrote:ecstacy wrote:hope the slide continues...December 17th may present a perfect entry point... why not wait until festive season peaks? between 27th-30th..minimal attention on stocks..silence all unnecessary noise..as everyone is out binging on fun. you picked that right from my head. i am waiting for the KPLC rights to end then i will check the other counters. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Guys, think the best buys are when the fear is highest not attention lowest!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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ecstacy wrote:Guys, think the best buys are when the fear is highest not attention lowest! fears will be highest on 17th? That's basically on one counter! no greater fears than political..u have to wait for ocampo to name some idiots whose tribes men are likely to cry foul and disrupt loads of biashara..and have foreigners wonder whether to keep buying or hold off..and sell.. ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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What bear? This to me is a stable market, normal fluctuation. I don't see Ocampo naming the purported masterminds causing any major ripples after all, we all know the people in the list.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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and today for once i am speculating the index will go to the green region. from the data am seeing from the open market. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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soo true, today, the tide has changed, and we are now "Going Green", the Banks definitely leading the way. Can you imagine Co-op has a demand of 1.4M at 19? What the .....! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/4/2010 Posts: 223 Location: Afghanistan
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Warren Buffett presents a lucid rationale; A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves. The rich have money working for them; the poor and the middle class are going to work for money.
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The NSE on a Bear Run
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