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Safaricom share consolidation vs Tariff wars
VituVingiSana
#21 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 8:22:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,276
Location: Nairobi
We need the small & the large... Or a market we do not make!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#22 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 9:13:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I would personally advocate for a 100:1 share consolidation reducing the number of shares to 400million and driving the price up to 440bob....

This will make the share totally unreachable to the small holder speculators and a play field for fund managers....


I mean if google is trading at $500 a share why cant safcom trade at 440bob??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 9:28:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,276
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
I would personally advocate for a 100:1 share consolidation reducing the number of shares to 400million and driving the price up to 440bob....

This will make the share totally unreachable to the small holder speculators and a play field for fund managers....


I mean if google is trading at $500 a share why cant safcom trade at 440bob??
Safaricom is no Google... LOL... My G-Mail is free. I get free sms from G-mail to Safaricom (not the other way round). Google gives me free Google Docs.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#24 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 9:29:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, what happened to Equity when it was trading at 300? Or EA Cables at 600? They split because the people you call ''small holder speculators'' were locked out at those prices. The same will happen to safaricom at 440bob
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 9:33:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,276
Location: Nairobi
KQ was at 11.25 at its IPO... It dropped to 6/- then recovered to 11.25 ended up at 135 then down to 17 & now 47/-...

Why worry about Safaricom's 'price'??? If it does well it will rise naturally... If not, it will languish (see Neveready)...

Let Safaricom rise or fall on its own merits...

@Guru - KPLC was 20/- for years!!! Then it jumped huge... then it fell to 6/- or so... languished at sub-20 & now 238/-...

There were no calls for consolidation... so why for Safaricom...?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#26 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 10:04:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
KQ was at 11.25 at its IPO... It dropped to 6/- then recovered to 11.25 ended up at 135 then down to 17 & now 47/-...

Why worry about Safaricom's 'price'??? If it does well it will rise naturally... If not, it will languish (see Neveready)...

Let Safaricom rise or fall on its own merits...

@Guru - KPLC was 20/- for years!!! Then it jumped huge... then it fell to 6/- or so... languished at sub-20 & now 238/-...

There were no calls for consolidation... so why for Safaricom...?

@VVS One simple reason KPLC has a 27.7 million share float and 7000 shareholders and safcom has a 10billion share float with close to a million shareholders....

So if you think KPLC has been volatile you haven't seen anything yet....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mlennyma
#27 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 10:52:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
This is the only way forward,small men prepare to get your bonga points and forget the odd lots created after consolidation.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mukiha
#28 Posted : Sunday, October 03, 2010 10:23:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Excuse me, but I feel the need to shout this one very loud:
"THE PROBLEM WITH SCOM IS NOT THE NUMBER OF SHARES, BUT THE NUMBER OF SHAREHOLDERS"

Share Consolidation would not affect the price movement at all.

Shareholder consolidation [which has bee happening since listing] is what will push this share upwards.

Still, why do people think 4-to-5 bob is too low for this stock..... operating in a virtually saturated market with little opportunity for growth... and now face severe price wars on all its fronts [voice, data, and money transfer]?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
guru267
#29 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 5:58:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
Excuse me, but I feel the need to shout this one very loud:
"THE PROBLEM WITH SCOM IS NOT THE NUMBER OF SHARES, BUT THE NUMBER OF SHAREHOLDERS"

Share Consolidation would not affect the price movement at all.

Shareholder consolidation [which has bee happening since listing] is what will push this share upwards.

Still, why do people think 4-to-5 bob is too low for this stock..... operating in a virtually saturated market with little opportunity for growth... and now face severe price wars on all its fronts [voice, data, and money transfer]?

@mukiha i still think its not ok for a stock of safcoms nature to be a penny stock....

If you look around the world stocks of that nature are always the most expensive in terms of price....

If safcom consolidated to 400million shares this would greatly reduce the number of shareholders gradually....

At the moment every one can speculate on it and i'm not a fan of such stocks... Maybe at 3bob
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mukiha
#30 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 8:39:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
guru267 wrote:

If safcom consolidated to 400million shares this would greatly reduce the number of shareholders gradually....


How will consolidation reduce the number of shareholders?

If I have 1,000 shares and you consolidate by 100:1,

I end up with 10 shares.... but I am still on the list of shareholders!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
guru267
#31 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 8:47:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
guru267 wrote:

If safcom consolidated to 400million shares this would greatly reduce the number of shareholders gradually....


How will consolidation reduce the number of shareholders?

If I have 1,000 shares and you consolidate by 100:1,

I end up with 10 shares.... but I am still on the list of shareholders!

I used the word GRADUALLY....

Due to the unreachable price this will prevent many new small shareholders from entering and shares being sold by existing small holders are almost guaranteed to be only taken up by institutions....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sparkly
#32 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 8:58:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Problem is not many retail investors but many retail investors who hold the minimum 200 shares allocated during the ipo.
Life is short. Live passionately.
mlennyma
#33 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:06:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Get your 10 shares replaced with bonga points and walk away.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mukiha
#34 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:06:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Let this stock be. If you find it too erratic, don't buy it.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
mukiha
#35 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:12:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
And to me, this isn't erratic:

Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
guru267
#36 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:20:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
And to me, this isn't erratic:


I'm not sure what is erratic to you....

But if you look at the highs and lows and current price you'll see that safcom is far from a stable counter
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mukiha
#37 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:26:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@guru;
That's why I posted a comparison with KQ. The two follow very similar paths. What shall we do to KQ then? Consolidate as well?

NB: the starting point of the curve is immediately aft SCOM IPO
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
2012
#38 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:32:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
guru267 wrote:

If safcom consolidated to 400million shares this would greatly reduce the number of shareholders gradually....


How will consolidation reduce the number of shareholders?

If I have 1,000 shares and you consolidate by 100:1,

I end up with 10 shares.... but I am still on the list of shareholders!


Interesting point @mukiha. Consolidating this counter even at 10:1 would create some headaches for scom, nse, brokers and cma. Plus it would be a pr nightmare for scom as the IPO selling point was to have something for the common mwananchi. I guess that's why they haven't done it yet.

BBI will solve it
:)
mjuaji wa stocks
#39 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:35:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/16/2010
Posts: 672
Location: nairobi
@All....good arguements boys and girls.....but i have come to love what i hated before.....safaricom...smile smile smile smile


I have discovered that it is actullay a cash cow....but you must be big to milk big......why BECAUSE IT IS the MOST LIQUID COUNTER!

CASE IN POINT;

Investment amount ksh 500'000/=

Conter; safaricom.

Current price; 4.30

Total shares = 500'000 -(1.8% * 500'000)


= 491'000 / 4.3 = 114'100 shares.

Even if the share price rises by 1 bob…I have a cool 114’100/= inclusive of commission.

If I want to trade in this counter….i know there is a ready buyer market.


For instance during the lowest price level of safcom share which was kshs 2.75/= …if I invested the 491’000/=….i would have 491000/2.75 = 178’500 shares.

I would be deligent enough to have sold at the recovery highest price of ksh 5.90/=

What would my profit have been….( 178’500 * 5.9) – 491’000/= cost price )

which is = 1’0531’50 – 491’000 = 562’150 plus commissions.

After how long??? less then 2 yrs

If I invested more money???….your guess is as good as mine……

Therefore …..let those who burn their fingers burn…..but let those who are here to make money……MAKE THE MONEY!!

Nimependa nilichokua nachukia!!
God gave me the power to make wealth ... Blessed the work of my hands & enabled be A SELF MADE BILLIONAIRE ...... TO GOD THE FATHER OF MY LORD JESUS CHRIST; BE THE GLORY NOW & FOREVER MORE!

mukiha
#40 Posted : Monday, October 04, 2010 11:55:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
mjuaji wa stocks wrote:
For instance during the lowest price level of safcom share which was kshs 2.75/= …if I invested the 491’000/=….i would have 491000/2.75 = 178’500 shares.

I would be deligent enough to have sold at the recovery highest price of ksh 5.90/=

What would my profit have been….( 178’500 * 5.9) – 491’000/= cost price )

which is = 1’0531’50 – 491’000 = 562’150 plus commissions.

After how long??? less then 2 yrs

If I invested more money???….your guess is as good as mine……


Hindsight is such a beautiful thing!

Why didn't you invest...even 49k or 4.9k...and make the profit?

If you had 450k today, would you put it in 100,000 shares of SCOM at 4.50?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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