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Need advice: DTB @110 coop @16 EB @25
the deal
#21 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 5:02:12 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
DTBK aulready established and doing well in all this markets u guys are talking about...
youcan'tstopusnow
#22 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 5:07:30 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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msimon, thanks
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
qw25041985
#23 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 5:27:41 PM
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Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@y . I dnt belidve the stocks beign mentiönd are overvalued . I believe investors are lookin into the future and factorin in the gud earnings thus the rapid rise in prices of stocks w/ expansion strategies e.g co-op , kcb etal ,is justified .
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
guru267
#24 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 7:07:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
msimon wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
msimon, interested to know what discount you say NIC is trading on percentage wise or what you think is its intrinsic value. Share other counters on the NSE you think are trading below their intrinsic values and you can compare your notes with other Wazuans. Welcome to Wazua.


[youcan'tstopusnow], i estimate NIC's intrinsic to be btn 60-55/- based on last years earnings.If i double their half year results and add a worst case senario, this equates to 65-60/-. I would be interested at present levels although if the stock falls low, i'll be dancing to the broker. the discount to value here is at worst 23% assuming you buy at 45. My target entry point is 41 and below. Kenya Re too is selling at abig discount to value, we estimate is at btn 20-17, to be abit conservative, i would put it at 17. For some time it has been trading below book. Co-op bank has an Intrinsic value of about 23-19 at 17. there's some margin close to 10% from intrinsic. Those are financials that are attractive and selling for less than intrinsic. For industrials and commercial, we use free cashflow to value them, most haven't been producing positive free cash and the ones that have are overvalued, (selling for more than 10x free cash per share.)

Are you guys sure you know the meaning of the word "intrinsic value"?? Go check the financials balance sheet and you'll find its only kenya re trading below intrinsic value...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
msimon
#25 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 1:34:24 PM
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Joined: 8/23/2010
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Location: Kampala
guru267...in that case you mean book value, not intrinsic value. Because Kenya-Re is below book and intrinsic too and the rest of the discussed stocks
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 2:19:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
@guru... please read Warren Buffett's newsletters... there is a HUGE difference between book value & intrinsic value...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#27 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 2:44:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru... please read Warren Buffett's newsletters... there is a HUGE difference between book value & intrinsic value...

I know the difference between the two.... Intrinsic value is the ability for a stock to outperform its peers if bought at current share price while book value is the balance sheet stuff.... But thats according to WB...

In finance book value and intrinsic value are one and the same
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
msimon
#28 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 3:18:30 PM
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Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
Guru267, they are actually different.Intrinsic Value is the present value of all expected future cash flows for the firm, while BV is the value of shareholders equity in the balance sheet.
Wa_ithaka
#29 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 3:19:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Guru-which finance? Intrinsic value is effectively the pv of future income streams
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
Wendz
#30 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 4:10:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
@msimon

and what is your take on KPLC? is it worth taking it up now? where would you place it in June 2010?

KK has really been winking at me but it has too much drama my sight is blurred.
The Merchant
#31 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 4:11:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
I agree with @msimon and @waithaka. I must also add that to effectively use intrinsic value one must apply a discount rate (not less than 20%, WB uses 60%)to the intrinsic value and only then can it be a proper comparison to the exixting market value.
youcan'tstopusnow
#32 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 4:44:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
The Merchant wrote:
I agree with @msimon and @waithaka. I must also add that to effectively use intrinsic value one must apply a discount rate (not less than 20%, WB uses 60%)to the intrinsic value and only then can it be a proper comparison to the exixting market value.

Effectively the margin of safety
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
The Merchant
#33 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 5:18:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
I agree with @msimon and @waithaka. I must also add that to effectively use intrinsic value one must apply a discount rate (not less than 20%, WB uses 60%)to the intrinsic value and only then can it be a proper comparison to the exixting market value.

Effectively the margin of safety

EXACTLY smile
msimon
#34 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 5:18:50 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
Wendz wrote:
@msimon

and what is your take on KPLC? is it worth taking it up now? where would you place it in June 2010?

KK has really been winking at me but it has too much drama my sight is blurred.


Wendz..KPLC is doesn't fit my criteria for a good investment. But i went through some numbers quickly and i realized it can be a good investment if regulations are removed. Because in the last 5 yrs sales have grown at 18% and this will increase in the future, plus profits have grown at 25% for the last 4yrs and will increase in the future. It currently has an earnings yield of about 19%. This would be a good candidate for a life insurance portfolio. But when you look at the opportunity cost, there are better investments on the NSE that have better value. But if it gets lower than this in the 120 ranges, it can be a good candidate for at least 10% of your portfolio,under the stalwart section.
guru267
#35 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 8:26:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
msimon wrote:
Wendz wrote:
@msimon

and what is your take on KPLC? is it worth taking it up now? where would you place it in June 2010?

KK has really been winking at me but it has too much drama my sight is blurred.


Wendz..KPLC is doesn't fit my criteria for a good investment. But i went through some numbers quickly and i realized it can be a good investment if regulations are removed. Because in the last 5 yrs sales have grown at 18% and this will increase in the future, plus profits have grown at 25% for the last 4yrs and will increase in the future. It currently has an earnings yield of about 19%. This would be a good candidate for a life insurance portfolio. But when you look at the opportunity cost, there are better investments on the NSE that have better value. But if it gets lower than this in the 120 ranges, it can be a good candidate for at least 10% of your portfolio,under the stalwart section.

@msimon ATI 120 FOR KPLC???? @vvs should see this post
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#36 Posted : Wednesday, August 25, 2010 12:14:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
And finally KCB has started waking up...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
The Merchant
#37 Posted : Wednesday, August 25, 2010 12:29:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@guru...whats your target for KCB? What a tricky stock to follow.
PKoli
#38 Posted : Wednesday, August 25, 2010 12:30:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
guru267 wrote:
And finally KCB has started waking up...


I remember shouting myself hoarse when I was telling people that this giant is extremely underpriced and being punished unfairly. Luckily I never listened to anyone but my gut feelings
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