Hi all,

it appears that sooner or later we will have a major shortage of petrolium fuels as the rationing starts claiming big casualties...see this link for details....

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/ih36cvz/-/index.html

which one will be next??????


NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB

@ Kaigangio, some of your figures have since changed. refresh your links/sources.

There is no acute shortage of electric power. If this was, then the country would result to Emergency Power Producers or Scheduled Power Outages.

What we do not have is a reserve margin, such that if one big generator is out for maintenance, then we are not able to supply power to all Kenyans. That is not acute shortage.

The frequent power blackouts that we experience are due to SYSTEM WEAKNESSES where rotten poles fall, old cables snap, transformers stolen, metal pylons stoles, a drunkard knocks down a pole operational errors and challenges among others. And by the way, how many of us check the outage notices posted in the national newspapers everyday?

To specific points, the technocrats and the players in the sector appreciate the growing electricity demand. In line with this, the following is taking place:
1) there is agressive drilling in our geothermal field. KenGen is already evaluating bids for construction of 2 X 140MW stations in Olkaria. GDC is drilling wells in Menengai, a high potential area. Our potential in Geothermal is huge and with formation of GDC we expect to add more greener power to the grid than before.

2) With the drilled well heads, KenGen and GDC are exploring the idea of portable generators that can generate electricity as we wait for the BIG power stations to be put up.

3) More of wind power is being added to the grid. However, wind power is unreliable as it depends on the quantity and quality of wind, as well as "normal" electricity to be able to generate. As much as we would wish, wind power can only be allowed to contribute about 20% of our total generation.

4) there are thermal power stations coming up: 80MW in Athi River, IPP and 80MW in Muhoroni (KenGen). Already KenGen is commissioning 120MW, financed by the PIBO. There have been several additions that Kaigangio left out:
Iberafrica added 53MW in 2010
Rabai power added 80MW
Tsave power added 72MW a while back.

5) there is systems reinforcement going on where new transmision line and distribution lines are constructed and older one reinforced/upgraded. this will improve the reliability to the end consumer

Generation from geothermal is what will drive DOWN the overall cost of power - Not wind or hydro coz of the low capacity and their unreliability. In a 20 year horizon, geothermal is way cheaper than the other current generation source. Thermal power plants will raise the cost of power even further.

From my desk, I can say the future is not as gloomy as Kaigangio paints. Its more brighter than present. My only worry is that the cost will generally go up in the short term until such a time we have a higher percentage of electricity generated frm Geothermal.

PS am not an official spokesman of any body in the electricity subsector. I work in the subsector and I needed to point out these issues.

You are allowed to engage me.

Thanx fuchu.

I check the outage notices. I also call the emergency line whenever there is a blackout. First thing I ask is whether there is a scheduled outage - usually there is none.

Good to know something's being done (whatever it is). If the reason for the current outages is credible (taking it with a large bucket of salt) - there must be more drunks, thieves, and like everything else in this country, those posts are rotting at an accelerated rate.

And by the way, with all these blackouts, how come there are no significant changes on my bill?