Most recessions takes 12 months.It takes at least 6 month to realise an economy is on recession and 6 months to realise the end of a recession.So by the time people acknowledges that there is a recession,the recession period is normally half-way through and by the time people acknowledges the end of a recession period,realistically the period had ended 6 montgh ago.In simple terms,it takes 6 month to collect and annalyse data,and the data is always historic because it reflects the situation on the ground at that moment of data collection.

My take is,this is the best time to invest because the worst is already over.


Common sense is what tells the Earth is flat and the Sun goes round it.

I dont think its that easy to pick a bottom and advice buying through out the year based on how low the NSE Index has gone,in 1990 the index jumped from 1000 lows to 5000 in a few years and then what followed was a quick correction down to 3000 and a further painfull correction back down to 1000.
Now i dont suggest that we are going to 1000 but what i suggest is that we have only seen the bottom of the first phase,it is characterised by people trying to bring back optimisim and hope that the worst is behind us and its time for sun shine,in short 'the herd begins to gather'. Just like when a bull market has topped people continue to predict further ups and in our case brokers and 'top analysts' sayed NSE will extend 6000 mark and go to 8000 mark blah blah blah.
So heres is how to play safe.
One: the market is not going anywhere so patience is key.
Two: Let market levels guide you otherwise all you will be doing is either trading in a sideways market or worse a down market.
Three: Market level to watch is 4200. If this level is broken and market starts to trade above this,then we can assume we have bottomed and the next bull run has began,one which i predict will break the 6000 level and go way up. In short a Bull Market is born.
Otherwise we are still fresh in a bear market and i will not be surprised if we see NSE at 2500 level which acts as a very good support.
All in all people need knowledge of how to trade financial markets and stock markets are not the only kind of financial investements opportunities. People need to seek enlightement.

When written in Chinese,the word crisis is composed of two
characters. One represents danger and the other represents
opportunity.

So @ Mr Green

What is your advise for someone who has a little amount every month,

I say one should buy now,we all know how high the NSE has reached in the past and the perceived value of the shares at this highs. current prices are at discounts.

Secondly most of the money left in the market is now longterm positions,nobody will sell at a loss after waiting for this long.

It is not easy to predict when a market bottoms up,the best thing is to ensure you are in the seat when the ride starts.

Alternatively you can wait till the index gets to 6,000 then buy from those who are buying now,they will definitely be willing to sell.



I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.

@ tony stark: Fantasy Market is just but a good platform to help people understand the market,especially the emotional part,which i believe people have the biggest weakness,but since u asked i had a good run when stocks were splitting and i have held Equity since 07 and have never felt the urge to let go,coz of fundamentals since its inception.

@ Obi 1 Kanobi:
The urge to jump back is there,but when there is so much uncertanity in the market,CASH IS KING!! But hey this what you could do,i believe experience is the best teacher,since u dont want to increase ur liquidity get a certain portion from ur monthly cash and pick 1 or 2 stocks,if they do well i guess u gain more confidence and u continue adding and if the market goes up up and aware u cant say u missed out. But if it falls at least u will have sme cash left and the cash u have in the market can be ur determinant if the market is good or bad,ofcourse the more u loose the less u think of putting even a dime. Oh and by the way its easy to predict a market has bottomed,il give you two clues among the many:
1: the general mood in the public will change,and in Kenya people (common mwananchi) loth the NSE especially after Safcom and others did kini macho.
2: Watch company returns in the coming 1st quarter. If they are bad kazi itaendelea chini,if most of them are good then u can assume we are bottoming out.

Emotions contribute largely to an investors descisions,the majority of people are not able to make wise descisions coz they are emotional. But hey,without emotional people how can we get the best out of the market...?

When written in Chinese,the word crisis is composed of two
characters. One represents danger and the other represents
opportunity.

with the impending famine,fiscal deficit and massive lay offs in the works...I predict the market will go below 3000pts...I have also put a put a psychological bottom at 2500pts...there might be a mini bull in between but it will take quite a long time for the markets to cross 5000pts...maybe in mid 2010....but its still relatively safe to invest reasonable amounts every time the markets touch around 3200 and start selling at around 3800...learn to work with the trends...but hold some quality stocks you buy at a discount.Happy investing!

@slykat,I'm surprised that NSE cheerleaders did not go for your neck for daring to predict a downturn in the index. I see SK has either shaken off the weaker minds or the weaker minds are slowly getting stronger.

I gave up on the NSE after the 2007 bloodbath and I'll never regain hope until the underlying issues(land reform and constitutional review) are resolved once and for all. Right now,my biggest concern in investing in Kenya is not whether I'll make gains but whether the shilling will hold steady against the dollar.

Furthermore,the worldwide downturn in the economy has created some amazing bargains in more stable economies including the great USA. I have several stocks that have the potential to be 10-baggers within a year!! Already my portfolio is up 358% year-to-date,happy trading everyone.

no one would have predicted how the last three months would heve gone eve with the largest margin of error. no one.

A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing posibility.

@niwewe..assumin nimimi will refer to myself... Well... Triton debt.... Consider KCB has provision for bad n doubtful debts..plus insurance on loans issued...chasin after triton thro court is more a matter of prudence than crippled financials. KCB's still a buy.

DISCLAIMER: This is the opinion of one Jammo,CFA,CPA,Opinionated and Loud,based in nairobi. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the data to be as most factual n logical,he doesn't accept any responsibility of accuracy or completeness of info contained herein..neither does he purport to be a genius!

Hmmmn, I must admit I can't help looking back. Always teaches you what to do right in the next year. Now we are at the end of 2009, this thread makes for very interesting reading:

@slykat economic review ok
@tmatekwa on the mark
@murenj seems to have been smoking something
@djinn very clear on tech
@morey, @obi1, @green, @tony stark the worst was yet to come by a long short etc etc

Look at what happened to KCB, Centum, EA Cables, or to the NSE Index and Economy in the end... I tell you, though we don't admit it, investment is more a game of chance than analysis.

Easier to buy an under-valued stock than pick a market bottom...