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Centum: On your marks, Get Set ...
mukiha
#21 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 7:17:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
winston wrote:
@mukiha -would you be kind enough to explain the bit on BAT? Is it the reluctance to split? Thanks

I wonder if I'd be comfortable with being in the cigarette business.

I wonder why they pay 100% of EPS as dividend.

Is the smoking habit going to last?
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too many questions I'd have to think about before putting money in a cigarette company...
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
winston
#22 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 7:39:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
@mukiha - Thanks. Appreciate your perspective.
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 8:22:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
100% dividend coz they can meet almost all their expansion needs with existing cash flow.

Depreciation is a 'source' of cash... (well, not really but I cant b bothered to explain)...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#24 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 8:31:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,547
Location: nairobi
i bought some centum llate last year at ksh ten and sold them three months later at ksh thirteen.. thinking i had made a profit. now look??????

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
mukiha
#25 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 12:56:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@Obiero; kwani you sold the whole lot?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Scubidu
#26 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 2:44:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems? At least BAT has a good credit rating and good line of credit, they can borrow to pay those dividends. But Centum will need to borrow for the KCB rights issue and probably for the annual dividend (if they propose anything). Isn't that a big risk on Centum? Current price is not justified at all IMHO, take profits.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Wa_ithaka
#27 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 2:54:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Scubidu-are you aware Centum has put RVR stake in the market for almost Ksh350m? Moreover, I mberieve the statement you are referring to is now 6 months old and I'd expect to see improvement from dividends...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
Kaffir
#28 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 3:09:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/8/2008
Posts: 77
I expect them to have some good results. But, my appeitite for risk is not too high these days. I've also bailed out too after hitting my target (bought at 13shs) - no need to be too greedy. Enjoy the ride
Scubidu
#29 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 3:12:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Well @Wa_ithaka. I have just downloaded the annual report from their website. Centum holdings 79 million shares in KCB. Some speculate that the rights price could be about 13.60...the math is self-evident. Either Centum sells KCB (which I'm guessing they're doing or already done substantially) or they pay USD13.5 million (3x times the RVR sale). Nway it's in their best interest to scale down on KCB cos it's the only way they'll post good results and not have to keep borrowing.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Wa_ithaka
#30 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 3:37:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Scubidu-we at least agree. KCB is not a share that Centum should be holding in large amounts. Note though that it stands to make Ksh79m in divs from the same share...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
mv_ufanisi
#31 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 5:06:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Scubidu wrote:
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems? At least BAT has a good credit rating and good line of credit, they can borrow to pay those dividends. But Centum will need to borrow for the KCB rights issue and probably for the annual dividend (if they propose anything). Isn't that a big risk on Centum? Current price is not justified at all IMHO, take profits.


Do you know what the NAV for Centum is as of March 31st 2010?
mv_ufanisi
#32 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 5:21:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Centum gains will come from the following
1. RVR Recovery
2. Carbacid Invesment - 450million investment (more than doubled with great dividends coming in)
3. Huge gains in quoted investments (check their portfolio)
4. Undeclared dividends from half year (most dividends arrive in the 2nd half)
5. Overall economic recovery influencing their unlisted holdings

Should be a goood year!
Wa_ithaka
#33 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 5:56:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
MV Ufanisi-good homework. And the trend is upwards alongside the overall NSE bull.

Centum has cash coming so can invest in other stocks.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 9:53:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems?

BAT has cashflow problems??? Puhleeze, send me whatever you are smoking...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Bangkok
#35 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 2:25:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/6/2007
Posts: 31
Guys,
I have this feeling that this is the right time to exit from this counter.
Save the old news of the Ksh 350M from RVR, there seems to be no other driving force in support upward mobility of this share. Is there anything I might be missing?
sparkly
#36 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 5:37:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Scubidu wrote:
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems?

why would Centum have cashflow problems with so many liquid investments? Besides their cash outflows comprise of what-rent, employee salaries, printing and stationery?
Life is short. Live passionately.
Scubidu
#37 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 7:44:53 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@Wa_ithaka. Centum must sell KCB at some point. Whether it's now or sell its rights...only way it'll have cashflow. I'm not saying they won't make money, sure they will, but they won't have cash. Those 79m dividends will make a difference, but not as much as the ones GM pays.

@mv_ufanisi. I don't know the NAV, but it will improve a lot but not like pre-2007 levels. RVR recovery is likely to happen, but we don't know for sure and yes the Carbacid Investment will make a difference. We have to differentiate the gains that are recorded on the P&L and those on balance sheet. Carbacid is an associate company and any gains will be recorded in statement of equity, although the dividend will be good. I suspect Centum will continue to prop up Carbacid and sell it soon to one buyer.

@vvs. What I am smoking? Take a look at the financials bro. Let's imagine BAT didn't have an AAA credit rating. Would a company with negative working capital, end year cash balance of -ve 1.2 billion, cash of only 251million, but bank overdrafts of 1.3 billion have cashflow problems? I haven't even factored in the 1 billion final dividend. I'm smoking the good shyt.

@sparkly. Centum have equity investments which must be sold at a profit and whose dividend profiles mostly suck. They sold investment properties and fixed income instruments that would have given them real cashflow.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
sparkly
#38 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 8:11:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@scubidu BAT's cashflow situation is self imposed and doesn't mean trouble for the company. It generated net cashflows of 1.5B from ops. Bought machinery of 1B, i suspect financed by parent Co. Borrowed 0.5B from parent Co. Yet paid div of 1.7B! What i see is a mature, cash rich Co ingeniously using dividend, interest, management fees and inter-company sales to repatriate profits while paying the least tax possible.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 8:35:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@scubidu - BAT has a net POSITIVE cashflow... The O/D is offset by the stocks on hand & creditors... so the NET effect is ZERO...

If BAT decided to forgo dividends for 1 year, they could pay off ALL the loans...

As for any outlays for capital expenses/outlays... they can reduce it by a depreciation 'transfer' [Well... more complex than that]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#40 Posted : Wednesday, April 28, 2010 7:49:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
BAT has cashflow problems, i never said they were in trouble, maybe i should have said cashflow constraints.

@vvs. well i'll agree to disagree. but it wud be nice if ur able to explain these complex concepts that u mention in passing.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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