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Follow Warren Buffet....
The General
#21 Posted : Friday, November 06, 2009 1:35:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
if you practice value investing,you just might not find a good enough reason to hit the 'sell' button.

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
pm
#22 Posted : Friday, November 06, 2009 5:38:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 60







IMHO the NSE Brokers have killed NSE market,once a most promising Capital Market,I've tried half a dozen NSE Brokers over the last five years,and I cannot say I can trust any with my money ...its as if you've shown your money to pick-pockets,I couldn't begin to narrate what goes on inside NSE brokerage houses,at times they make street robbers look like saints ...

There are opportunities in NSE but no credible brokerage structure/trust to sustain a flourishing Capital Market ... the opportunity is not worth the risk with the brokers IMO ...Where is Moreno Ocampo to look into economic crimes!

As for the US market,there are opportunities but would be careful with some of the proposed strategies ... for example,buy & hold strategy predates the seventies and is no longer a viable strategy especially with a flatlined economy over the next few years

WB leans heavily on GS research his latest investment in BSNF though not widely published is predicated on the future projected oil prices (GS;near 100) and how such an oil increase will bear on the movements of goods internal to US,as already experienced when oil was to the tune of about 150,one of the few viable transportation was via railroads ...( truckers,airlines were going burst) here,you'll notice that what WB does not say is that,he does not only look at intrinsic values/ book values etc ... but more importantly,what is most likely to happen in the future and who will benefit ...
that is why often when firms issues outstanding results,and then issues a gloomy outlook,the stock tanks with folks left breathlessly saying woooow! WB IMO,wealthy aside,seems so so in modern investment paradigms... BSNF is hardly a blockbuster by any stretch of imagination ... then again Waswahili hunena ' ukiiga tembo kunywea hupasuka msaba' loosely translated ' if you try to sh*t like an elephant,you'll burst your ass'
oteve
#23 Posted : Saturday, November 07, 2009 6:32:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2009
Posts: 53
I believe the greatest weakness we have is that when prices are down we ru around saying stocks ni mbaya and we dont buy even those we expect to be in the know when prices go up we buy greedily sababu stocks ni mzuri then we loose I wish I had all the cash I need now Ningenunua vibaya lets be wise and remember THE BIGGEST RISK IS NOT TAKING A RISK

Dignityis everything keep it intact
drake
#24 Posted : Saturday, November 07, 2009 11:19:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
As someone so eloquently stated on this forum,buy and hold is dead.

I believe Mr Buffet's greatest investment triumph,and I stand to be collected,was his (Berkshire,NYSE:BRK.A/B) dealings with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers (OTC:LEHMQ)

+ $5BB Perpetual Preferred Stock from Goldman - He'll be collecting 10% dividend on that for a very long time

+ Bought Warrants to buy $5BB of GS stock at $115 over 5 years.

Translates to $5BB/$115 ~ 43,478,260 warrants

Now Closing price for GS on Friday (after hours trading) was 171.90......this makes Berkshire's paper profit from warrants (assuming that he exercises the warrants and sells them at market price)

=43478260*(171.9-115) ~$2,473,912,994 (in ~ 13.45 months!)

ROI ~ 49.5% on exercise of warrants alone.

Now consider that for Q3 of 2009 Goldman was making a profit of $100MM a day and he has until circa 2013 to exercise these warrants.

How high can these go?

It often happens that a TRADER carries out a deep and complicated calculation,but fails to spot something elementary right at the first move!
pm
#25 Posted : Saturday, November 07, 2009 1:29:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 60






OT @drake,What is the dollar's real fulcrum which is now the tail that wags the US markets,Im unable to put my finger on the MOST volatile dollar derivative to trade,I have looked at FXE DXY UUP UDN FXE but are not as pivotal as I would like ... any ideas


SK why do you keep on inserting this 'Normal 0' in my posts? can you fix








Oldunn
#26 Posted : Saturday, November 07, 2009 4:50:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/8/2009
Posts: 2
Guys,I am cracking up here. Don't waste time following Warren Buffet,man. That guy is a sixth sigma event making billions from stocks is not like playing kalongo. I suggest you just use your brains and develop your own investment strategies -based on your own context especially so if you are in Kenya -instead of climbing on this mzugu's back hoping for miujiza.
cleokip
#27 Posted : Sunday, November 08, 2009 1:18:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2007
Posts: 11
I think i am coming to understand warren buffett investing mind. First he buys business not stocks. The guy says he buys something which he thinks will here for the next 100 yrs. Look at his favorite companies eg cocacola,wallmart,johnson,i mean who does not know that this companies will be here for centuries?? i am a trend trader myself,but i will start to invest like him for my long investments,it is very easy to do it i mean if i buy cocacola today,what is the possiblity that i will make money in 40 yrs time??

ck
drake
#28 Posted : Sunday, November 08, 2009 2:20:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
@ cleokip
I think with GS,he bought people.

@ pm

I don't trade any of these and I'm not in a position to so I don't really know the answer to your question. I do know there are quite a few forex traders on SK and if you were to start a thread on it they'd probably come out of the wood-work.

So what's your strategy? Are you trading volatility or macro-trends and how long are you planning to hold on to your position? I ask because I notice that you have quite an eclectic mix on your list e.g

+ UUP = Bullish and UDN = Bearish (Split?)
+ Most are ETF's and I believe one is a contract on the dollar index.
+ ETF's &gt; USD/Basket of currencies FXE.P&gt; USD/Euro

First,most ETF's have a tracking error and trusts have a correlation that deviates from 1. With most of what you've listed,what you're doing is taking a position in an ETF that takes positions in futures contracts. Any gains are then reduced by commissions and management fees. If your desire is to trade derivatives as you have indicated then I wonder if that is optimal or gives you the exposure you desire.....how much are you working with?

Also,currencies move relative to other currencies. Now with,say UUP or UDN,you're betting the dollar against a basket of 6 currencies which minimizes risk,but at the expense of profit. The cost of diversification,especially when you're pretty sure of the/a directional move,can be pretty steep.

USD/Yen versus USD/(Yen&Euro&SFR&Pound&Krona&CAD)

If I were to trade forex I'm not sure I'd do it via ETF's and against the majors. I much prefer African currencies. You mentioned you trade US markets and wonder if you live there. Ever thought of the Carry Trade i.e Borrow cheap in USD convert to KES and buy government paper (lend government at higher rates),earn interest on paper,sell paper or hold till maturity,repay USD.

It often happens that a TRADER carries out a deep and complicated calculation,but fails to spot something elementary right at the first move!
pm
#29 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2009 1:48:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 60
@drake,

Thanks for your feed back,for now I'm just doing research on dollar vs euro/yen ... trading for me is just a hobby, mostly futures,forex and a few other derivatives, just thought of the dollar due its power to move us markets ...
sheep
#30 Posted : Monday, November 09, 2009 8:01:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
we are looking at a grace period to invest...but will there be 10* baggers before 2017?
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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