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Property bubble bursts
babamoi
#21 Posted : Wednesday, April 14, 2010 7:54:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/16/2007
Posts: 8
Life is made of principles and when broken there is always a correction. How come no one is mentioning where all the cash is coming from if most of the population is below poverty line? It can only be credit, pirate cash or corruption money.Very little of it is legitimate. And that tells you something, all those are speculators, no hard earned cash there, painless. The correction could be in various phases. Banks are already talking about independent valuers because they know prices are inflated and that puts them at risk and quite exposed. Pirates, its only a matter of time before the cash from the ocean dries up, then they run out of money then they begin to sell houses to survive because they overspent on an unsustainable lifestyle(behaviour synonymous with someone who hasnt earned the money).Politicians lose in the next round of elections, and start to sell the houses which they bought with corrupt money to survive. The nightmare is if the forces sustaining the bubble converge,there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth. Its only a matter of time, i can put my money on it
fantony
#22 Posted : Thursday, April 15, 2010 7:37:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/6/2006
Posts: 276
THE PIRATE CRAP AGAIN... so that's what bought all of the 35,000 housing units built last year... so do you have any pirates that you can single out that have property near you...

And they are not pirates... it is Somalia's informal navy... protecting territorial waters from Japanese fishing trawlers and French nuclear waste dumps...
bwenyenye
#23 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 9:57:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
@Nyquist

True I am hopefull in the real estate market. The jest of my post however was that the housing market of over KShs 10M is not for novices and neither is it meant for primal speculation. I agree, there could have been people who bought for speculation, but how may are they? Who can afford a KShs10M house, pay over KShs 100K per month in mortgages just to speculate for two years? For speculation purposes, any fellow in his right mind would buy those going for below KShs 4.5M and especially flats/apartments as they are the ones with a higher capacity to appreciate. Again, these over KShs 10M apartments are not for the 'employees' market. There is no way you should attempt to take up a mortgage based on salary to pay KShs 100K per month for 15yrs! You would be mad.

What I know happens is that a person has already a property somewhere, sells it and raises about 70% of the price. They can then get a mortgage for the rest. Surely, if you have a mortgage for KShs 3M for the house in Kileleshwa, why should the rents being paid now bother you!In any case, even if you want to sell, banks now are not too keen on foreclosures and so they will allow private sales and so no one losses.
Let those with ears, hear, those with eyes see and those with feet, take a walk.Pray
I Think Therefore I Am
Intelligentsia
#24 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 10:46:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
fantony wrote:


And they are not pirates... it is Somalia's informal navy... protecting territorial waters from Japanese fishing trawlers and French nuclear waste dumps...


am blown...thats a totally different way of looking at it. very very nice esp at the nuclear dump bit there maybe sth there Applause
fantony
#25 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 5:11:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/6/2006
Posts: 276
@ intelligentsia - follow the link.. http://www.huffingtonpos...ed-to-abo_b_155147.html
dukawalla
#26 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 3:03:00 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/1/2009
Posts: 16
Location: Nairobi
@fantony

You cannot use the pizza and chapati analogy here.....
It is only in the third world where people are denied basics of human existence read food, shelter and clothing. In Italy, where pizza originated, the pizza is a common mans meal same as our ugali, nyoyo, muthokoi. Chinese food would cost you less than a dollar in Guangzhou, yet the same meal costs you more than 50 dollars in Nairobi. It is the same fascination with things foreign that the real estate sellers are exploiting today. Build a crap house and call it something ...ville or something ....brook or meadows and I can bet you will reap the millions from it. Build the same apartment and call it Grogan or Korogocho and nobody will want to pay you a dime for it.
There is nothing spectacular in many of the so called high end apartments that are now going for 10... or 20 m. These are normal structures that normal human beings need to be living in. What @vituvingi calls the median man.
We should remember the history of zoning of Nairobi much of which has to do with our colonial legacy. The three zones ...one for whites, the other for Indians and the last one for the natives were legislated by law then. Today, in the 21 century, years after our independence, there has been no deliberate attempt to wipe out this legacy. Infrastructure in Most of Eastland is what Eric would call “hii si barabara ni shamba”.
Whether the bubble bursts or doesn’t, the common man will still not benefit. What Nairobi needs is over 240,000 new decent housing units annually to house every Kenyan. We should also debunk the myth that one needs to be “white” or “excessively monied” to be able to bring up his or her family in a decent accommodation.

john p
#27 Posted : Sunday, April 25, 2010 7:26:08 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/6/2010
Posts: 14
Location: africa
@Dukawalla: i think fanthony's Pizza or Ugali analogy sums the situation up correctly.Pizza high end units, ugali median low priced units that we wananchi require.am sure Pizza is cheap in New york but wherever you get ugali, it wont be $2.25 or even $10.Whatever's a novelty in any city is bound to be high priced.Just check out how much a kilo of pork(mbuzi ulaya) costs in Mombasa.

90% of the people reading this post have land/property as their LARGEST ASSET.Hence, when i talked about pizza being overpriced,ugali eaters said NO, the price of unga is still going up.

The mystique and allure of certain zones created the bubble esp apartments.Now , the tenants and some owners look back and wonder what was so special about the units.Hence, the stagnant prices and rent.

@Bwenyenye: true dat about buildings above Ksh 10 mn.

@fantony: the 35,000 units were bought by ordinary folk and tens of foreigners.
john p
#28 Posted : Sunday, April 25, 2010 7:28:33 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/6/2010
Posts: 14
Location: africa
@all: Thank you for your contributions i learnt a lot.DID anyone notice that soon after we all started talking about property here, all the media outlets had a story on how the property market has stagnated?

The local news media should acknowledge WAZUA as one of its news sources.
fantony
#29 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 11:11:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/6/2006
Posts: 276
i have reviewed various lists of buyers on the projects i deal with and not unless these guys have proxies with several different names the 'pirate' input is below 1%...
hardwood
#30 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 3:19:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
Quote:
.....the number of huge real estate projects with almost zero per cent occupancy rates is frightening. Some owners have resorted to dropping the prices after realising their properties are not attracting tenants.

At Sunset Boulevard, a gated community development in Athi River, a two-bedroom apartment that was costing Sh40,000 a month in rent has now dropped to about Sh18,000.

Economists say the downturn in fortunes has been caused by over-estimation of the market by industry players.


Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-a-year-after-completion
Horton
#31 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 3:30:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
In Syokimau that was bound to happen. The aforementioned Sunset Boulevard has a pungent smell of Nyake from KMC. Think about waking up to that "fresh" smell every morning.

Glut in office will remain till past elections
Angelica _ann
#32 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 3:40:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
However, there is another class referred to as the “floating middle class” which are not poor but can fall into poverty courtesy of a small disturbance on their economic well-being.


d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
obiero
#33 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 3:40:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,517
Location: nairobi
A housing shortage exists but the common man hasn't been factored into plans of the real estate developers.. The drop in rent is expected and long overdue

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#34 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 3:42:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,517
Location: nairobi
A housing shortage exists but the common man hasn't been factored into plans of the real estate developers.. The drop in rent is expected and long overdue

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Magunia
#35 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 6:11:49 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/29/2017
Posts: 13
Allow me to chime in
According to an article by Duncan Miriri "there were less than 25,000 mortgages in Kenya and mortgage debt made up just 3.15 percent of the GDP in 2015."
Those saying that there will be a real estate bubble burst are mistaken. In Kenya the banks protect themselves very well.
The only way rent prices will go down is by oversupply of homes by the government. That is not going to happen because of the ppp thing

http://www.reuters.com/a...-worldbank-idUSL9N13C01R
obiero
#36 Posted : Monday, July 03, 2017 7:34:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,517
Location: nairobi
Magunia wrote:
Allow me to chime in
According to an article by Duncan Miriri "there were less than 25,000 mortgages in Kenya and mortgage debt made up just 3.15 percent of the GDP in 2015."
Those saying that there will be a real estate bubble burst are mistaken. In Kenya the banks protect themselves very well.
The only way rent prices will go down is by oversupply of homes by the government. That is not going to happen because of the ppp thing

http://www.reuters.com/a...worldbank-idUSL9N13C01R

The said bubble burst isn't countrywide.. And NSSF have capacity to deliver Kenyans from this economic suicide by replication of BuruBuru, Nyayo Estate etc But they would rather chase mirage of NBK shares and Hazina Towers.. This country is f×cked up!

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
heri
#37 Posted : Tuesday, July 04, 2017 8:07:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
[quote=Magunia]Allow me to chime in
According to an article by Duncan Miriri "there were less than 25,000 mortgages in Kenya and mortgage debt made up just 3.15 percent of the GDP in 2015."
Those saying that there will be a real estate bubble burst are mistaken. In Kenya the banks protect themselves very well.
The only way rent prices will go down is by oversupply of homes by the government. That is not going to happen because of the ppp thing

http://www.reuters.com/a...worldbank-idUSL9N13C01R[/quote]

But i think it is wrong to just look at the number of mortgage.

A good number of people finance the property purchase through personal bank loans/sacco loans etc
obiero
#38 Posted : Tuesday, July 04, 2017 8:19:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,517
Location: nairobi
heri wrote:
[quote=Magunia]Allow me to chime in
According to an article by Duncan Miriri "there were less than 25,000 mortgages in Kenya and mortgage debt made up just 3.15 percent of the GDP in 2015."
Those saying that there will be a real estate bubble burst are mistaken. In Kenya the banks protect themselves very well.
The only way rent prices will go down is by oversupply of homes by the government. That is not going to happen because of the ppp thing

http://www.reuters.com/a...worldbank-idUSL9N13C01R[/quote]

But i think it is wrong to just look at the number of mortgage.

A good number of people finance the property purchase through personal bank loans/sacco loans etc

For smaller houses yes, but property worth KES 6m or more, a mortgage may be necessary

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
maka
#39 Posted : Tuesday, July 04, 2017 8:35:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Magunia wrote:
Allow me to chime in
According to an article by Duncan Miriri "there were less than 25,000 mortgages in Kenya and mortgage debt made up just 3.15 percent of the GDP in 2015."
Those saying that there will be a real estate bubble burst are mistaken. In Kenya the banks protect themselves very well.
The only way rent prices will go down is by oversupply of homes by the government. That is not going to happen because of the ppp thing

http://www.reuters.com/a...worldbank-idUSL9N13C01R

The said bubble burst isn't countrywide.. And NSSF have capacity to deliver Kenyans from this economic suicide by replication of BuruBuru, Nyayo Estate etc But they would rather chase mirage of NBK shares and Hazina Towers.. This country is f×cked up!


Ukweli....
possunt quia posse videntur
quicksand
#40 Posted : Tuesday, July 04, 2017 8:42:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
Magunia wrote:

Allow me to chime in
According to an article by Duncan Miriri "there were less than 25,000 mortgages in Kenya and mortgage debt made up just 3.15 percent of the GDP in 2015."
Those saying that there will be a real estate bubble burst are mistaken. In Kenya the banks protect themselves very well.
The only way rent prices will go down is by oversupply of homes by the government. That is not going to happen because of the ppp thing

http://www.reuters.com/a...worldbank-idUSL9N13C01R



I am convinced there is creative accounting and mis-reporting going on at banks. Some of them should be quite distressed. There must be a lot of capital tied up in half-finished projects or in projects completed but with no occupancy or buyers, which means the owners are not servicing loans. These loans should be in bad debt / write-down territory now, fire sale mode. But no, everyone remains stiff lipped, probably hoping things will turn around, the turds in the books remain hidden somehow cause the fundamentals don't appear badly off, it is all hunky-dory.
What if there is no turn-around in the next 5 to 10 years? How bad are the books I wonder? Will it be another Nakumatt-like scenario, a shiny edifice that is hollow inside?
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