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Centum to ride over the rainbow
KulaRaha
#21 Posted : Tuesday, March 30, 2010 9:12:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Even I have a banana I want to sell for 10,000 bob.

Just because they want to sell garbage at high prices, doesn't mean there's a sucker out there willing to buy it.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Wa_ithaka
#22 Posted : Tuesday, March 30, 2010 9:45:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Kura- you are forgetting the geopolitical dimension here.
Plus, WB is now likely to be interested in engaging financially given that di**head purfett is no longer in the scene...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
guru267
#23 Posted : Tuesday, March 30, 2010 10:20:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@surealligator i swallow my words
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
slykat
#24 Posted : Tuesday, March 30, 2010 5:54:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@surealligator, I do not know where whether u know ur math urself b4 u talk abt other's sense of valuation... ur figures r fictitious or is it deliberate?

@All,
Can someone explain to me why Centum is fixing the price? Would it not have made more sense to sell to the higher bidder between sheltam and transcentury, with the USD4.5 as reserve price? Maybe one of them would have offered more in a bid to gain more say!

Just a moot point now; did centum expect investing in railway transport to return a profit so quickly and that such venture would not be so capital intensive as to eat into their cash reserves? Did sb say speculation somewhere...... still a wee uncomfortable..
muganda
#25 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 5:57:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
@slykat, let me see whether my calculator is still working.

Business Daily reports that Citadel is to purchase Sheltam's entire stake at estimated $9.7m

35% of RVR ~ 9.7m

So Centum's 10% of RVR for $4.5m is fixed because it's a new premium.
KulaRaha
#26 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 6:47:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
You fix a price because you know what your selling isnt worth even half that.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
edwing
#27 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 12:00:13 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/31/2010
Posts: 23
Location: Nairobi
@KulaRaha I see U'r hating on this stock very much whats the problem are U out side the bus. Any way selling junk or no junk there getting REAL money which translates to REAL profits.
mv_ufanisi
#28 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 12:07:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@edwing - Thank you very much. Real money = Real Profits. But Centum needs to invest the money much more prudently than they did with counters like KQ.
slykat
#29 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 12:43:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@Muganda; that makes sense. Thanks.

@Kula Raha; I dont know if your statement makes sense.
wote
#30 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 1:21:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/18/2007
Posts: 217
Slykat, if Kula Raha does not make sense then i do not know the meaning of the word. But for simplist's sake take a walk towards Nyayo staduim at the bridge take a look down on your left and tell me if there is anything worth buying down there except for the land.
slykat
#31 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 1:38:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@Wote

U read ur own things; I did not say Kularaha does not make sense, I said I dont know if he does

It is a case of half-full vs. half-empty!

Even a mere license/concession to operate a monopoly for mkt share of 100million peeps is very expensive! The wrong investers bought into EA railways. We needed not just investors but strategic ones that have successfully run railways elsewhere n with very deep pockets.... while pondering this, imagine if transcentury n centum r the ones that had bought safcom rather than vodaphone uk... pray, where would we be? In my view, that is the problem!
slykat
#32 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 1:45:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
It is good centum exited... they were ill-suited to the venture ab initio, n shud have seen it as a marriage rather than a fling. Same fate awaits transcentury.
2012
#33 Posted : Wednesday, March 31, 2010 3:06:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
slykat wrote:
ISame fate awaits transcentury.


I doubt it. I think transcentury will be the last man standing. These Egyptians have no idea of what they got themselves into. For their sake let's pray we get a good govt after 2012, ole wao if we don't

BBI will solve it
:)
KulaRaha
#34 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 6:08:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
I may not make sense to many, but where I come from, you can only say you made a profit AFTER you sell your goods and GET PAID. Not when you advertise you have something to sell.

Anyways, my issue is not with Centum (which frankly is run like a duka), but with RVR. Do you all sincerely beleive that when there will be a cash call to start construction of a new railway, that these mickey-mouse sharehodlers will have the ability to raise funds? Just read http://www.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml and tell me if you think it will be possible for RVR to raise a minimum of US$ 1.25B (thats at $2.5M per km from Nairobi to Mombasa straight line 500 kms).
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
kishindo
#35 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 9:21:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 121
@ 2012 what do you mean by 'good government',what would it do or not do as regards RVR?
@kularaha very informative article and one excerpt caught my eye..
" there are two features of those systems which cover their costs or better, i.e. they provide a positive farebox ratio - one over 100%. One is high patronage, the other is efficient management of the operation. High patronage is a feature of metro and suburban systems, which is why I have used them as an example. Most main line passenger railways will never perform to these financial standards."
The amount of traffic/cargo available for RVR is enormous but the investment needed to carry the same is equally enormous besides giving return to investment.
Less is more....for Architects only!!
KulaRaha
#36 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 10:25:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Kishindo, exactly. And here is my observation. Even if RVR ever manages to raise money to build this railway, it will never break-even. Ever.

Railways are strategic assets for a country, not investments for private companies to reap profits. We are only counting laying tracks, leave alone buying locomotives, bogeys, etc. Add to this daily running costs.

You cannot compare metro and suburban lines to carrying containers from Mombasa to Malaba. Metro lines turn-over hundreds of thousands of passengers several times a day, in big big cities. RVR may transport one load of containers every few days.

It wont work. This railway should have been upgraded years ago, when costs were manageable. It is no longer a viable project, and I dont see RVR ever competing with other forms of transport (unless some knight in shining armour comes and spends BILLIONS of dollars with no regard for return).
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
wote
#37 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 10:36:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/18/2007
Posts: 217
Building of Railways and Urban Transport(city buses) system has always been the responsibility of the Governments world over as social need/welfare for its citizens.We have matatu nightmare because the government has neglected its responsibility to society. We have trallers killing our citizens becoz Government has failled to build an effecient railways.The government should building a new rail track and conssession the services if we have to talk serously about RVR.
VituVingiSana
#38 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 2:20:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
@kularaha - I disagree... A privately run railway can work a-ok as long as governments protect their assets & rights of way...

RVR needs police/GoK protection from the kibera hooligans, etc BUT that is a function of GoK though we have seen massive failures...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wote
#39 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 3:32:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/18/2007
Posts: 217
VVs with all due respect to you, please tell us where that has happened? Because even the most effecient ones like the Germany , French, Swiss, Japanese, Italian,Dutch, Chinese including the Magelev, Canadian e.tc. and ofcourse the railtracks of the USA and the UK are all Government owned.
The only way a private company would be interested in such a venture would be through BOT but even that has yet to happen coz of the huge resourses required for such investment.
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Thursday, April 01, 2010 5:20:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
@wote - Please distinguish between COMMERCIAL operations & those used for so-called public interest...

Now to answer your question: BNSF in USA... now owned (or to be owned) by Warren Buffett... Please note the USA respects the rule of law... well until the lefts take over completely...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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