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gathinga
#11 Posted : Friday, March 26, 2010 10:25:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
@Ric Dees. Do you see Gordon Brown beating David Cameron in the coming elections? Whats the mood on the ground?
Njung'e
#12 Posted : Friday, March 26, 2010 10:34:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
Intelli,
Those things used to chemka mpaka steering wheel.Why would you want to have two hot wheels??smile ...
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Ric dees
#13 Posted : Friday, March 26, 2010 10:48:36 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/6/2008
Posts: 632

@Gathinga
Unfortunately anything broken in the UK now is associated with Gordon Brown (not labour) NHS decline, Crime, Joblessness, Immigration, etc overtime the Conservatives have been leading by a margin of 4 points +/- 1 and they have kept the lead consistently.

Now unless Gordon Brown has an ace in his sleeve i don't see him pulling this off, he is not a great orator thus i fail to see where or what stage he can build on to the gap, i stand corrected.

Also to note i have been watching the meteoric rise of BNP party and i must say, this is one to watch, they are pro - white and it's engrained in their constitution and the support these guys have is massive not to mention chilling. For you to be a member you have to prove descendants prior WW1 living in Britain.

@all
What are your thoughts on the following:
"Can Churches escape a state-imposed diktat to conduct gay weddings? Should they? Is the Catholic Church right to fight gay adoption in the courts? Is homosexuality a distraction from bigger issues? Have the Churches themselves been corrupted by a public-sector mentality? And can we trust Dave''s Conservatives to protect Britain's historic contract between Church and State

Real issue folks..

The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday's logic.
gathinga
#14 Posted : Friday, March 26, 2010 11:48:21 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
@Ricdees. UK media argues that since the Tories need to capture in excess of 135 seats in the commons in order to have an outright majority and which may be a tall order, the result could be a hung parliament. In the event, the lib dems will be the king makers and obviously lean towards labor rather than the Tories. Whats your take on the electoral math?

Could Brown's apparent resurgence be just another media hype as we saw in Sri Lanka earlier this year, where media created an impression that the incumbent president was losing elections, only for him to beat the opposition comprehensively?
Impunity
#15 Posted : Friday, March 26, 2010 11:51:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
@Ric....This RvR thing reminds ME of the now famous Mitsubishi RVR (the other R facing backwards).I hated this car with a passion and I doubt whether those who bought it are enjoying any ride better than the bijuti.Sad

@Njunge...RvR put two engines on either side of the whole train and the the engines pulled in the opposite directions....you can imagine the overall net speed>below sluggish!!!Pray
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Ric dees
#16 Posted : Friday, March 26, 2010 12:04:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/6/2008
Posts: 632

@Gathinga

Uniform Swing Projection

The standard method of translating shares of the vote into seats is to use a uniform swing calculation. This means that the national change in vote share for each party is applied to each individual seat to see how that would effect the result, and then these theoretical results in each seat are totted up to produce a projection for House of Commons.

This is a crude measure and can result in some illogical and impossible projections – for example, if a poll showed Labour support dropping by 13%, as one poll did during Summer 2008, then a uniform swing calculation using those figures would project Labour getting less than zero votes in 48 seats. This is clearly nonsense. Such projections also ignore any regional variations, tactical considerations or variations due to incumbency effects of new MPs or MPs standing down. Despite all these drawbacks, it normally does a reasonably good job and, given that it is a straight extrapolation of current voting figures it is at least accepted as a fair projection that is not at the whim of individual guesswork or assumptions.

There is no such thing as a seat that a party needs to capture to win an election, one MP’s bum on a seat is as good as another.

The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday's logic.
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