In 1992 and 1997 the bourse performed very well.Infact in 97 it was one of the best performers in the world.2002 lows was because of the dotcom bubble.

@ cicero i hate how politics determines one's life in kenya...how did kenya end up creating powerful politicians(mafias) who run around with so much impunity that they think they own kenya...from a foreigners perspective i'm only here till 2011...

@cicero i've just read this thread and your portfolio is very interesting...
if you have 2012 in sights then you should then in my view:
try and get out of:
kengen: prolonged low EPS and large debt but its good for a 10 year play
sasini:very volatile earnigs and very low interest in it as a counter

but for the rest hold them because;
KQ: air traffic is predicted to be higher on its routes than it has ever been plus its expansion but be weary about oil prices
Equity and KCB: they will benefit hugely from any economic growth estimated at.(4% this year and above 6% next year)
kenya re; it will benefit from world recovery and pick up in intl. trade due to its intl. exposure
mumias and EABL: will greatly benefit from the ever growing middle class

The lesson from 2008 PEV is that kenyans have no appetite for prolonged crisis. Remember people calling radio stations to complain they don't have airtime or how they missed the new years bash. I think the middle-class is strong enough to ensure stability. Anyway geo-politically kenya is too strategic to be allowed to fail. 2012 is time to buy just like 2002 KQ was 7/-

@2012.. the conflict started the day after the poll results were announced and ended the day after the coalition was formed on paper and that can hardly be called tribal wars... and let us not forget what happened in 1992...
the conflict was very political but it just so happened that the two parties were supported by different tribes..
but with 2012 no one will be seeking re-election and conflict usually arises when the incumbent doesnt want to leave..

@guru267thank you for the advice & the other honourable wazurians. Infact, i will get rid of sasini & kengen n report back say in a wks time. The i'll get more into KQ, safaricon & any other u may advice. I quite 4got 2ask about CMC. They sold quite a number of cars to Uhuru but they dont seem 2b making headways much. Will they in the medium term? Buy or sell now? What about the cable guys? there was a time that share was hot too ... betcha some of ya fellas made good ol' killin' those days ...

@guru
People didn't just wake up one day and decided to fight. It was planned long before. The reason I say it was tribal is for the obvious reason that the militia were organised in tribal groupings. If you read the reports, no two tribes joined forces. There was nothing political in 2008, let's not confuse tribal chiefs for politicians. Politicians fight for agendas and beliefs not self gratification.

Ooops! This threads is turning into politics. My apologies, let's go back to the issue at hand.

@VVS the threat of mitumba has always been there but in the last 3 or so years it has really grown(just move around nai, kisumu and nakuru)...and thats why i dont see GROWTH in profits unless the wages of wanjikus goes up... but CMC does have its part of market
i agree with the agric. and construction equipment but are these really significant to the p&l????

@VVS it was a question!! CMC is not really a company of my interest so i'm not so together with the figures or sources of revenue..
but i was just trying to help @cicero from a macroeconomic point of view.. thats why i insisted research should be done into facts and figures...

@mkono i agree safcom looks really highly priced right now but you're thinking like a value investor what your not considering is that it has a very high projected growth curve because of the massive investments its been carrying out for the last two years so its a darling for growth investors...

if you are looking 5 years out this still remains as a perfect play.. and if foreigners kill it in 2011.. that just becomes more buying oppurtunity for me...