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Of Pirates and Property Values!!!
dukawalla
#21 Posted : Tuesday, February 02, 2010 8:03:48 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/1/2009
Posts: 16
Location: Nairobi
Nyquist wrote:
Guys.. It's just a matter of time before the bubble will burst. My house in the states is worth about Ksh. 14m, Yet is much bigger than those dusty houses in Karen going for 45M. The infrastructure in the states 1000x compared to Nairobi. This is not rocket science. The houses in nairobi are overpriced and cannot be a good investment. I would rather buy properties in the US than mess with nairobi.



the same issue was raised a few weeks ago regarding sale some railways (RVR) land that was going for an exorbitant amount.

I stand to be corrected but basing my argument on fundamentals, the price of a house is the net sum of amount spent on it (building costs), value of infrastructure (good roads- not gravel ones that dot most of Nairobi, reliable piped water, gas, electricity, telephone, security - the works ). The final ingredient to a house price is some reasonable degree of markup which should cover the location of the house, land rates paid, the uniqueness of the design, the view etc. In modern day Nairobi, there is no single locality from the slums - where slum lords are reaping millions to the most plush areas that house prices have followed the said fundamentals. The same madness has spewed even to previously sleepy towns like Murang'a where plot prices have risen up to 500% within the last year.

A massive proportion of Kenyans (wananchi sio wenyenchi) legally earn & live way below reach of these housing prices. Where monies to fuel this craze is coming from remains a matter of speculation...... for now.

mukiha
#22 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 4:59:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Money laundering means that you start with dirty money, take through a process and end up with clean money.

The input is cash [dirty] and the out put is also cash [clean]

So you buy something with the dirty cash...something that you know people will not ask many questions about the source of your cash...eg casino chips

Then you sell it soon afterward [probably at a loss - payment for the "cleaner"] and get clean money out.

Now, regarding the real estate balloon:

Are the suspected money launders buying is cash or through bank transactions [eg cheques, EFTs RTGSs]?

Are the suspected money launders selling the properties or keeping them for development...and later selling at a profit?

In 2002, I bought a plot of land in Thika for 53k. Last year, I decided to add a second one to make two...the going price in the area was 150k [that sounded like a fair appreciation]

Then the Chinese company put up their base camp in readiness for the building of the "superhighway".... long story short..... the prices doubled overnight! I have finally found some one to sell me the second plot. The price is 360k!!! He was asking for 400k but I managed to plead for a reduction.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Bashka
#23 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 12:15:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/31/2008
Posts: 116
Where are the AML laws enacted recently? At the same time we need to get an authority to regulate Real estate industry in order to check the malpractices in this industry.

Kenyans have a culture of buying plots, may be we learned this habit from one community. A friend of mine has 4 plots - 2 in Kitengela and 2 in Rongai. And he needs only to build and settle in one. A clear case of speculation. Compare this with old times, once you finish college and secure an employment, the first dream was to drive a big car. The trend has changed nowadays, some even buy plots while in college. May be its good culture, may be bad...

Zakumi
#24 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 5:45:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/16/2009
Posts: 152
@Bashka the AML laws were implemented,kwanza i even hear that buying of property is now being scrutinized....but me and you we know kenya is a land where the lords of impunity reign...maybe this time it will work,let us be hopefull.

@Inteligentsia i like the way you dissect issues and your examples were very true...i was not picking on my somali brothers its only that they are the most prominent and plus the numbers are in if you read saturday's nation you'll see...do you know that yesterday another Ship(Korean) was hijacked by pirates and the amount of ransom is dizzying,and we both know where this money goes to..btw did they finally buy that land they were fighting for in Grogan?

@Sparkly what you didnt tell us in your basic economics is that there is a worlds apart difference between effective demand and needs.The housing needs in Nairobi is about 150k..but do these people have the financial ability to buy the available houses??

The long and short of it IMHO is that the house prices are at an all time high and these proces are not supported by fundamentals as explained by some members in this thread.And laundered money has played a key role in keeping those prices up.
The Strong Do What They Want,The Weak Do What They Must!
Intelligentsia
#25 Posted : Monday, February 08, 2010 9:46:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
@zakumi
Money-laundering is a hydra-headed monster transcending all borders - ethnic, communal, national,etc. So sawa, today it is best seen in form of warlalohs using pirate cash to gobble up our precious real estate. A few yrs back it was best seen in the drugs trade in Kenya (those nice fancy high-walled villas in Nyali..)and this was very widespread with top-level govt jamaas involved. Some top Kamba and still-very rich politician today were involved. Some of these criminal proceeds were laundered in form of villas purchased. Could the coasterians condemn the entire wa bara people for driving real estate prices in Nyali far into the stratosphere? Methinks, nah.

Even bhang used to be extensively cultivated in Mt Kenya forest on a serious scale but u can't condemn all Kyuks of investing these proceeds in real estate elsewhere and thereby destroying the local real estate business because not all were involved.

Even now Munir in Narok (he speaks masai very fluently) is involved in gun-running (of course with some maa collaborators) and that cash will surely be used/has been used to purchase real estate in Narok (that is money-laundering) - will u condemn the entire maa folks because of this?

And so on. Tomorrow it will be which criminal activity done by which community? Ethnic profiling in criminal activities can be misleading and is in fact a leading cause of the large numbers of black americans in U.S. jails

What Kenya needed is a strong anti-money laundering framework in place and the assenting of the AML Bill into law by the preso last month after 4 yrs of debate means we now have AML in our law books and have embarked on that journey. The law now gives law-enforcers powers to seize/ confiscate property acquired from the proceeds of criminal activities, including Eastleigh malls, high-end vehicles,etc. Sad the AML won't work retrospectively.



Zakumi
#26 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2010 5:36:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/16/2009
Posts: 152
@intelligensia word.

In an interesting twist has anyone smelt a rat in the recent Barclays islamic banking scheme strategy? A glance at some of their patrons and their vehichles at their kicc shop tells me that this scheme was intended to tap on some hitherto ignored resources....just a thought any,but someone has surely seen a goldmine.
The Strong Do What They Want,The Weak Do What They Must!
Sigiriri
#27 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 6:39:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 319
Again, some Kenyans with their heads in the sand. Truth be told - this issue is raising some serious concerns. A while back Mombasa residents held a demo over this - the house prices and rents were too high for the locals. Nairobi isn't exactly paradise, and those traders in real estate are driven by profit maximisation.

Ships will be hijacked, the money will pour into Kenya, and the property prices will rise - without justification! Who suffers - we all do, but of course some speculators in this forum are not suffering. Quick money is being made - genuinely.

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