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Taking positions for 2010
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 7:09:14 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
My reckoning is that electricity consumption for each household is constant i.e. you do not decide to switch off lights in your house at 9 pm instead of your bedtime of 10pm because it is expensive. This means that whether it is hydro or thermal generated is irrelevant - the onset of rains is therefore irrelevant.


Hydropower contributes the BULK (& cheapest) of electricity in Kenya. 75% thermal generation would mean 50-100% rise in cost of electricity which DOES reduce usage for residential or commercial or industrial. Not good for KPLC or consumers.


Gordon Gekko wrote:
KPLC will grow by connecting more households and somehow encouraging industries to consume more - but then industries have discovered that they can generate and even sell excess.... But as more households connect, wouldn't fixed costs rise?


Fixed costs will rise but the marginal cost to connect each new consumer is not as high (except for rural areas) since once you have power poles in place along a street, connecting more consumers is 'cheaper'.

So what if Fixed Costs rise? As long as 'new' consumers use the product helping offset the cost.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 7:15:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Njunge wrote:
@VVS,
Utility stocks are money makers the world over and i agree.KPLC is no exception despite it's inefficieny.Don't blame Buffet...lol.


I am a HUGE Warren Buffett fan... How am I blaming him???

I think KPLC is the kind of play he would like (of course, at the right price)...

A moat - You would need billions & years replicating KPLC's infrastructure

'Guaranteed' pricing - KPLC doles out any forex & thermal gains/losses to customers. This reduces its risk.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 7:19:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
@vvs,hold onto KPLC until the conersion for the goverment shares is done and you will tell us a different story.The dilution may be vicious.Kenya re,hfck,mumias and Equity make my basket for 2010.


I admit the conversion is the scary bit. Until we find out more... we are flying in the dark.

Nevertheless, I have read the Annual Report cover to cover and there is a hidden gem that makes me optimistic. Now the gains I want may not surface in 2010 but I am patient to wait till 2011.

I am OK with long term. My goal is 200/- (plus dividends). Looking at current price (143/-) that is 57/- capital gains + 8/- dividend. I can live with that!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 7:23:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
@vvs i also think the current price factors in the future profitability of the company but not the potential dilution of shareholding. But just my opinion, happy investing.


I disagree.

That said... the price in 2010 or 2011 will be determined by other market participants... and therein lies the rub!

Will someone pay for the 'profits' even if they are there in 2011?

Of course, the next piece of the KPLC puzzle will be released by 31 March 2010. The 1H results.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#15 Posted : Thursday, December 31, 2009 7:01:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
The darlings of the market in 2010 will be ARM, SCANGRP, MSC, HF and SFCOM. They will set the tempo of the market.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Njung'e
#16 Posted : Friday, January 01, 2010 7:15:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Sparkly,
ARM??.......With the other Comesa countries especially TZ,Burundi and Rwanda pushing for zero-rating of cement??....and Egypt ready to sell their cement to other countries at a third of the local market prices??.....I put question marks on that one.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
sparkly
#17 Posted : Friday, January 01, 2010 8:31:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@njunge, You would bet that investors would be apprehensive but NO! The counter has already jumped sh 13 in 2 days. Our market is not rational.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Friday, January 01, 2010 7:08:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Happy 2010... Long Live & Prosper
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kyt
#19 Posted : Saturday, January 02, 2010 7:48:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
my take would be EABL, KQ and KCB
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
Hi-Lo
#20 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2010 6:41:01 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
@vvs...KPLC at AGM released all info regarding pref conversion indirectly...just brush your F2 math [simultaneous equations!!]...and compute pref share redeem at 126 and rights shares later at 109. Why you targeting 200?
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