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KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
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MaichBlack
#21 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 6:00:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.

This IPO was dead on arrival. Absolutely no way of justifying getting in at that valuation! Especially with so many other options still under book value!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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wukan
#22 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 7:24:38 AM
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Joined: 11/13/2015
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scared money don't make money
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MaichBlack
#23 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 9:42:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
wukan wrote:
scared money don't make money

What about smart money?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Realtreaty
#24 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 9:46:02 PM
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Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,378
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.


If you do not trust anyone trust your guts to stay in or out
Oil marketers have their share, East Africans have their share, it is possible that Uganda bought a larger chunk and demanded seat as it as well depend on KPC to transport its Oil. The gag news on Uganda refusing to settle for less is not bad news but good news
We are not told whom among Oil marketers is unhappy but they might have taken their full chunk.

I will hate so many people when this thing is successful just because i listen today.
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MaichBlack
#25 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 11:00:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
Realtreaty wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.


If you do not trust anyone trust your guts to stay in or out
Oil marketers have their share, East Africans have their share, it is possible that Uganda bought a larger chunk and demanded seat as it as well depend on KPC to transport its Oil. The gag news on Uganda refusing to settle for less is not bad news but good news
We are not told whom among Oil marketers is unhappy but they might have taken their full chunk.

I will hate so many people when this thing is successful just because i listen today.


The uptake by the original deadline last week was 20%. How does this narrative fit in with this fact??
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#26 Posted : Tuesday, February 24, 2026 6:29:42 AM
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Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
Three days to go... Two days to go... One day to go...

Great IPOs don't have countdowns! Tafakari!!

Don't miss out... Join in building the nation... bla bla bla...

Great IPOs don't need motivational speeches.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Kusadikika
#27 Posted : Thursday, February 26, 2026 2:49:25 PM
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Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,720
It looks like the IPO was successful so that is now water under the bridge. Let's now discuss the business.

1). Uganda starts crude oil exports in October 2026.

2) Uganda will still be the biggest oil customer for KPC since they don't start refining their own in 2029/30.

3). What happens when Uganda starts refining it's own oil? Can the pipeline be used to transport Ugandan refined oil to Kenyan consumers? Can the pipeline be used to transport crude oil?
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xtina
#28 Posted : Thursday, February 26, 2026 3:47:35 PM
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Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 391
An oversubscription Applause Applause I am really surprised, going by social media sentiment I thought it would be a total flop. We await and see the percentage allocations per category. I suspect only the retail segment was undersubscribed and the OMCs, EA and foreign investors, and institutional bodies oversubscribed.
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mufasa
#29 Posted : Friday, February 27, 2026 10:23:57 AM
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Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.


@VVS has summarized this one for me on his footer


Quote:
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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MaichBlack
#30 Posted : Saturday, February 28, 2026 8:16:25 PM
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Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
How Uganda saved the KPC IPO!!

Oversubscribed??? I doubt. Let the data come out. I am hearing 53% after Uganda took up 30% of the shares on offer. The IPO had collapsed before the extension and Uganda saving the day!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#31 Posted : Saturday, February 28, 2026 10:15:52 PM
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Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
The Uganda KPC deal: Influence without majority ownership!!!

Terrible news to anyone who bought KPC shares and Kenyans in general!

Uganda now has veto power in decisions made at KPC! Influence without majority ownership.

When a major customer who has strategic reasons to keep tarriffs/prices low has the veto power in a company that you own shares in, you can kiss profit growth good bye.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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xtina
#32 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 12:33:03 PM
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Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 391
Applause Oversubscribed by ~674 million shares Applause Applause Applause Tweets from KPC X page: The #KPCIPO opened on 19th January 2026 and closed on 24th February 2026. We offered 11,812,644,350 shares at 9 shillings each. The total number of shares applied for stood at 12,486,78,724, translating to an overall subscription rate of 105.7% #KPCIPOResults #AFutureYouCanShare

KPC
@kenyapipeline
·
7m
7.95B shares (67.32%) have been allocated to Kenyan individual & institutional investors.

#KPCIPOResults
#AFutureYouCanShare

I expect a market correction in the next few weeks, going by past IPOs in Kenya

EDIT: Actually there may not be a very big price correction as this has all the hallmarks of illiquidity:

KPC
@kenyapipeline
Here’s the breakdown of the share allocations:

Government of Kenya – 35%
Institutional Investors – 41%
East African Community – 21.22%
Retail Investors – 2.56%
Foreign Investors – 0.02%
KPC Employees – 0.06%
Oil Marketers – 0.014%
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obiero
#33 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:13:05 PM
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Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,180
Location: nairobi
xtina wrote:
Applause Oversubscribed by ~674 million shares Applause Applause Tweets from KPC X page: The #KPCIPO opened on 19th January 2026 and closed on 24th February 2026. We offered 11,812,644,350 shares at 9 shillings each. The total number of shares applied for stood at 12,486,78,724, translating to an overall subscription rate of 105.7% #KPCIPOResults #AFutureYouCanShare

KPC
@kenyapipeline
·
7m
7.95B shares (67.32%) have been allocated to Kenyan individual & institutional investors.

#KPCIPOResults
#AFutureYouCanShare

I expect a market correction in the next few weeks, going by past IPOs in Kenya

Only a blind person couldn't see that this would be an oversubscription

KQ ABP 4.26
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mufasa
#34 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:20:41 PM
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Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 238
How's the distribution across the sectors?
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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mufasa
#35 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:23:23 PM
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Posts: 238
@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.

I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.

This thing will go up before it comes down
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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My 2 cents
#36 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 2:49:29 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,088
To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each.
Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO.
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My 2 cents
#37 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 3:06:43 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,088
The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.

The underallocations were taken up by GoK

Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes.
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xtina
#38 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 3:20:43 PM
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Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 391
mufasa wrote:
@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.

I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.

This thing will go up before it comes down


I would be surprised if that were the case, retail at 2.56% was almost irrelevant to the outcome and they are the ones most likely to sell but as we have seen, never say never
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Kusadikika
#39 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 4:29:06 PM
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Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,720
My 2 cents wrote:
The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.

The underallocations were taken up by GoK

Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes.


Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds.
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obiero
#40 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 5:06:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,180
Location: nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each.
Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO.

Hehe. A win is a win

KQ ABP 4.26
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