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Mobile Loans Ponzi
Gathige
#11 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2019 8:19:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/29/2011
Posts: 2,242
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy


That's the point. If you borrow 100 bob and pay 20 bob as interest, the math looks very expensive at 20%. But if the 100 bob got you fare for Mjengo kibarua and got 300 bob, the returns now become 200%. Both the cost and returns look abnormal but in Kadogo economy it's normal. If the lender was to lose even a quarter of the loans, they still have a margin to operate. Going by the number of apps in the market, the business is booming. SACCOS have also introduced MSacco where u get pesa pap, but at huge interest. They are all riding on the enabling technology and the demand.
"Things that matter most must never be at the mercy of things that matter least." Goethe
murchr
#12 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2019 8:28:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?

Unless CBK puts a cap on how much a bank can give in mobile loans as a % of total lending, there is serious systemic risk in this ponzi scheme.

Bookmark this post!

Everyone thought corporate bonds were safe...... not any more.

Everyone thought mortgage crisis could never happen.....

Even the pros are as greedy as you are. They will chase high profits at expense of high risk because they get higher bonuses.



Your bank takes your some if not all of your savings to give Njoroge that loan if you save 100K and they give Njoroge 20K in which he should return 20500 by the end of the day....the bank keeps 500 your the 20K from your savings is recouped ready to be given to Njoroge another day or to Kamau.

Meanwhile part of your 80K has been lent to others eg the govt thru treasury bills, Njeri the gal opening a new hair salon, Ndungu the man buying a plot all have smaller interest rates but the bank is still eating something (5%, 14%, 20%, 50%) depending on who it has lent your money.

The CBK cap is on at 14% the rest are charges

As for your 100K at the end of the year, the bank thanks you and gives you 5/-. Thank you for your service
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
MaichBlack
#13 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2019 8:41:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,841
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu yake which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
rwitre
#14 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2019 9:20:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Applause Applause Applause Applause
tom_boy
#15 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2019 7:03:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
murchr
#16 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2019 8:00:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.


Cbk website has the data. Feel free to analyse
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
jmbada
#17 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2019 9:33:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
murchr wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.


Cbk website has the data. Feel free to analyse

Banks are currently capped at 13% maximum per annum. The new lending products are their only option to earn from fees.so you can be assured that they are praying that midnight passes on the intraday loan products.
tom_boy
#18 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2019 11:41:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
murchr wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.


Cbk website has the data. Feel free to analyse

Kindly point me to the page with data showing how much lending is going to mobile loans as an asset class vis a vis others like agriculture, real estate etc etc

The only thing I can find is data under 2017 annual report. There is no data on loans given as mobile loans even in this report. Should mobile phone loans not be considered a different risk category worthy of tracking?
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
sitaki.kujulikana
#19 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2019 1:29:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/25/2012
Posts: 1,826
this form of credit has always existed, in the form of loan sharks - and contrary to what some believe the poor people in the informal sector are actually decent human beings, responsible people who actually pay their loans.

The problem is that some see those poor guys in the informal sector as thugs, petty gamblers, with no sense of responsibility and its only time until they start defaulting, but as mentioned above most business in this sector need daily or very frequent capital, they get get that make some money with the same at the end of the day they pay the loan remain with a few coins they buy unga for the family and wait for the next day.
murchr
#20 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2019 1:59:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
tom_boy wrote:
murchr wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.


Cbk website has the data. Feel free to analyse

Kindly point me to the page with data showing how much lending is going to mobile loans as an asset class vis a vis others like agriculture, real estate etc etc

The only thing I can find is data under 2017 annual report. There is no data on loans given as mobile loans even in this report. Should mobile phone loans not be considered a different risk category worthy of tracking?


Why should they yet they are bank products like mortgages et al? From that report do you see anything alarming?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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