S.Mutaga III wrote:Mukiri wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.
NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.
#Happy Hunting#
Werokamu... Are you open to advice, or just letting Wazua know of your action? I might have a thing or two to say about your action, but unsolicited opinion is not my forte
I welcome any advice. I could use it in future so go for it. I am all ears.
Sawa Chief. Please take whatever I have to say with a (BIG) pinch of salt. I only share, in the hope of learning from (your) feedback. In my little experience, I've come to realize there are no gurus in crypto. The same is epitomized in real-life, where a child will get right some IQ questions, that adults fail... most like due to preconceptions and/or assumptions.
Let me first start with your narrative..
Bad bloodbath, yes. For speculators, no! Investors, YES! The notion of hodling (to me) is something worth mulling over. I personally find it foolish. The way things change in crypto, it would be wise to be dynamic
Scarce opportunities? Hardly. Opportunities abound, if you learn how to 'see' them
Fundamentals are important. Very. But not the most important. In my opinion, crypto is being driven by mass euphoria, on the surface. It's still a bubble with the people majority behaving like a herd. There are those that have thought well ahead of time, mostly 'whales' not only currently win, but will be future winners! Here you might want to evaluate your goals.. Short or Longterm? Personally, I want my money in my pocket.
Trend following. Probably your best possible strategy, if you are trading. BUT you might have to work to be among the first in, anything else might lead to either paltry returns or losses!
Modest returns, wise
Equate what only 5% a week will give you in a year.
30 / 15 days? That is a loooooonnnngggg time in crypto. Things change in minutes! You need to keep abreast with news. It has been argued that crypto becomes a way of life for anybody in it. One can't afford to make a trade and check 15 days later! Stop loss is the safety belt, you can NEVER do without!
Moving on to your coins of choice
I'll start by (my) cardinal rule. Bitcoin is king! It goes up, Alts go down! It goes down, Alts go down!!! An Alt will only rise when Bitcoin is stable, or there is some fundamental news that will defy the general public's perception of it inspite of what is happening with Bitcoin.
That said, do you know WHY BNB, XVG or IOST have been gaining? Do you know how long that trend is likely to last? Seek to answer those questions...
Else you'll be lest holding a bag like those who bought BTC @20k.. Sometimes, the gain in a coin is the sure indicator to keep very very far from it. Remember what I said, to either try be the first in; or evaluate what is driving a trend and how long it is likely to last, before risking your money.
Finally, be safe. Remember, your money in your pocket? Invest in security. An exchange can go down or become unusable when you need it the most. Better spend money in transfer fees than risk losing your capital