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Market Direction with Election
Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2015 Posts: 249 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. I also think take your 45% and if things are smooth sacrifice 10% of this 45% for commission and price appreciation to buy back @Trafalgar78,you could as well recoup your principal and leave the 45% gains.As for me,am all in(balls included) if the market capitulates,nasema "sande yesu" alafu naziokota on the cheap. Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,608 Location: nairobi
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mamilli wrote:mlennyma wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. I also think take your 45% and if things are smooth sacrifice 10% of this 45% for commission and price appreciation to buy back @Trafalgar78,you could as well recoup your principal and leave the 45% gains.As for me,am all in(balls included) if the market capitulates,nasema "sande yesu" alafu naziokota on the cheap. That's a sober approach
COOP 140,000 ABP 15.75; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 213
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Be greedy when others are fearful. The NSE has proven to be independent of politics. Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,608 Location: nairobi
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mufasa wrote:Be greedy when others are fearful.
The NSE has proven to be independent of politics.
Very independent
COOP 140,000 ABP 15.75; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,608 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Trump himself is unstable
COOP 140,000 ABP 15.75; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Anyone who wins or rigs needs to do it with a clear margin of 700k+ votes. A tight result will start a big circus but that's also good for buyers.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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whiteowl wrote:Anyone who wins or rigs needs to do it with a clear margin of 700k+ votes. A tight result will start a big circus but that's also good for buyers. The stakes are high, and pressure is mounting.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Trump himself is unstable And not too sure Trump will be disappointed with associations with the Russians...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,608 Location: nairobi
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winston wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Trump himself is unstable And not too sure Trump will be disappointed with associations with the Russians... Exactly
COOP 140,000 ABP 15.75; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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So far...market is largely unmoved with election hours away.
Pre-election time had no impact.
Now we await post-election time...tick tock tick tock
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Intimidation Tactics Gagging Traders in Kenya's Currency Market https://www.bloomberg.co...-kenya-s-currency-marketBusiness opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/5/2011 Posts: 1,059
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winston wrote:So far...market is largely unmoved with election hours away.
Pre-election time had no impact.
Now we await post-election time...tick tock tick tock Market doing just fine, normal volumes no price spikes just the your normal NSE To Each His Own
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,608
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[quote=KulaRaha]Intimidation Tactics Gagging Traders in Kenya's Currency Market https://www.bloomberg.co...kenya-s-currency-market[/quote] Wah  Short squeeze moment 
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/16/2006 Posts: 21
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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[quote=KulaRaha]Intimidation Tactics Gagging Traders in Kenya's Currency Market https://www.bloomberg.co...kenya-s-currency-market[/quote] Trying to figure out the link between the currency markets and our securities exchange...is the suggestion that government has interfered with currency markets and this has resulted in current NSE status or is the suggestion that the similar underhand manipulation moves are responsible for current NSE status?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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winston wrote:[quote=KulaRaha]Intimidation Tactics Gagging Traders in Kenya's Currency Market https://www.bloomberg.co...kenya-s-currency-market[/quote] Trying to figure out the link between the currency markets and our securities exchange...is the suggestion that government has interfered with currency markets and this has resulted in current NSE status or is the suggestion that the similar underhand manipulation moves are responsible for current NSE status? Where are we now
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,753 Location: NAIROBI
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With peace during the election period expect a rally in insurance counters @Obiero said there will be a partial reversal in the interest rates cap law. Banking stocks will edge higher Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 217 Location: Talai
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Ericsson wrote:With peace during the election period expect a rally in insurance counters
@Obiero said there will be a partial reversal in the interest rates cap law.
Banking stocks will edge higher I agree with you. Watch and Listen and Live
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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Still early days...voting is done...counting almost done...announcement/acceptance/move-on still to come. Lets continue to pray for Peace.
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