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aemathenge
#21 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 6:04:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
Could someone kindly translate into plain and simple English what Alykhan Satchu is alluding to in his article in the Star.

Link: Note it is a pdf document.

Extracts:

Quote:
A Brutal Start To 2017 At The NSE

By Alykhan Satchu at The Star

My view is that just about everything negative is now baked into the price. Baron Rothschild is credited with saying “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”

He should know.

Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon.

The world’s second wealthiest person Warren Buffett has warned: “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.”

So, my first overarching point is that valuations are at rock-bottom levels, and it is at these moments that the smart investor sits up and takes notice.

In these kinds of bearish conditions, it is important to pick your spots. Just buying the index is not an optimal strategy.

We have witnessed serious divergences in price performance. It is therefore a more Darwinian environment.

Steer entirely clear of companies that have had a history of corporate governance challenges except for Kenya Airways where the chairman, Michael Joseph, is on a ‘’personal legacy’’ ‘’national interest’’ type (of) mission and will not be denied.

Buy Safaricom at these discounted levels. Safaricom is an outstanding machine and on the radar of every investor across the world.

The only banking share to produce a positive return in 2016 was Standard Chartered.

I expect that out-performance to continue.

KCB and Barclays Bank also look good value.

KenolKobil was a big outlier in 2016 and a gently rising oil price is a gentle tail-wind for 2017.


Nothing about Equity?

Isn’t too much value being placed at the man of peculiar habits?
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murchr
#22 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 6:31:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mamilli wrote:
@aguy indeed.someone once said picking bottoms will only leave you with smelly fingers



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Best advice so far.

On a serious note. Picking bottoms is very serendipitous
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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aemathenge
#23 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 6:52:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
murchr wrote:
mamilli wrote:
@aguy indeed.someone once said picking bottoms will only leave you with smelly fingers



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Best advice so far.

On a serious note. Picking bottoms is very serendipitous

Weeweeee

Big English nayo:

ser·en·dip·i·tous
ˌserənˈdipədəs/
adjective
occurring or discovered by chance in a happy or beneficial way.
"a serendipitous encounter"
synonyms: chance, accidental, coincidental;
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kaimbaga2012
#24 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 8:21:27 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/25/2011
Posts: 67
aemathenge wrote:
Could someone kindly translate into plain and simple English what Alykhan Satchu is alluding to in his article in the Star.

Link: Note it is a pdf document.

Extracts:

Quote:
A Brutal Start To 2017 At The NSE

By Alykhan Satchu at The Star

My view is that just about everything negative is now baked into the price. Baron Rothschild is credited with saying “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”

He should know.

Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon.

The world’s second wealthiest person Warren Buffett has warned: “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.”

So, my first overarching point is that valuations are at rock-bottom levels, and it is at these moments that the smart investor sits up and takes notice.

In these kinds of bearish conditions, it is important to pick your spots. Just buying the index is not an optimal strategy.

We have witnessed serious divergences in price performance. It is therefore a more Darwinian environment.

Steer entirely clear of companies that have had a history of corporate governance challenges except for Kenya Airways where the chairman, Michael Joseph, is on a ‘’personal legacy’’ ‘’national interest’’ type (of) mission and will not be denied.

Buy Safaricom at these discounted levels. Safaricom is an outstanding machine and on the radar of every investor across the world.

The only banking share to produce a positive return in 2016 was Standard Chartered.

I expect that out-performance to continue.

KCB and Barclays Bank also look good value.

KenolKobil was a big outlier in 2016 and a gently rising oil price is a gentle tail-wind for 2017.


Nothing about Equity?

Isn’t too much value being placed at the man of peculiar habits?


What does Alykhansatchu mean when he says the gently rising oil price is a gentle tail wind for Kenol Kobil in 2017
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shocks
#25 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 10:37:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 360
kaimbaga2012 wrote:
aemathenge wrote:
Could someone kindly translate into plain and simple English what Alykhan Satchu is alluding to in his article in the Star.

Link: Note it is a pdf document.

Extracts:

Quote:
A Brutal Start To 2017 At The NSE

By Alykhan Satchu at The Star

My view is that just about everything negative is now baked into the price. Baron Rothschild is credited with saying “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”

He should know.

Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon.

The world’s second wealthiest person Warren Buffett has warned: “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.”

So, my first overarching point is that valuations are at rock-bottom levels, and it is at these moments that the smart investor sits up and takes notice.

In these kinds of bearish conditions, it is important to pick your spots. Just buying the index is not an optimal strategy.

We have witnessed serious divergences in price performance. It is therefore a more Darwinian environment.

Steer entirely clear of companies that have had a history of corporate governance challenges except for Kenya Airways where the chairman, Michael Joseph, is on a ‘’personal legacy’’ ‘’national interest’’ type (of) mission and will not be denied.

Buy Safaricom at these discounted levels. Safaricom is an outstanding machine and on the radar of every investor across the world.

The only banking share to produce a positive return in 2016 was Standard Chartered.

I expect that out-performance to continue.

KCB and Barclays Bank also look good value.

KenolKobil was a big outlier in 2016 and a gently rising oil price is a gentle tail-wind for 2017.


Nothing about Equity?

Isn’t too much value being placed at the man of peculiar habits?


What does Alykhansatchu mean when he says the gently rising oil price is a gentle tail wind for Kenol Kobil in 2017

Maybe confusing revenue with profit
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Mainat
#26 Posted : Monday, January 16, 2017 10:45:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Tailwind is English for stress event.
I generally treat his comments with the same caution I do broker recommendations.
Don't forget he is effectively a fund manager...
Saying that, two comments are of note. For once, he is actually saying get in slowly which is v telling. Secondly, the governance issue. He likes StanChart because they are probably the most honest bank in Kenya from an investor perspective.
The uhuruto government is as different to the one prior as day is to night. The NSE is now full of sharks
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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sparkly
#27 Posted : Tuesday, January 17, 2017 8:16:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Mainat wrote:
Tailwind is English for stress event.
I generally treat his comments with the same caution I do broker recommendations.
Don't forget he is effectively a fund manager...
Saying that, two comments are of note. For once, he is actually saying get in slowly which is v telling. Secondly, the governance issue. He likes StanChart because they are probably the most honest bank in Kenya from an investor perspective.
The uhuruto government is as different to the one prior as day is to night. The NSE is now full of sharks


Tailwind is a wind blowing from behind helping you to move faster or grow.

Perhaps he meant headwind which means challenges.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Tuesday, January 17, 2017 11:50:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
I am with @Sparkly on this re: tailwind [positive] vs headwind [negative]

http://money.stackexchan...n-financial-investments

Please note AKS says "gently rising prices" provides KK with a tailwind. I concur. The key is GENTLY rising prices. Perhaps to $70 but no more. These are SHORT TERM benefits for KK so I prefer LOW(ER) prices in the long-run. The reverse can happen as well i.e. as oil prices drop, OMCs like KK are stuck with pricier products.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Mt-KenyaMafia
#29 Posted : Tuesday, January 17, 2017 4:16:42 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 4/12/2016
Posts: 6
Location: central
i wish every year was an election year, Sitting still like a coiled python, poised to strike when the confidence in the market is lowest, then I will come in for the kill.
Respice post te, Hominem te esse memento, memento mori
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