wazua Wed, Mar 18, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

8 Pages<1234>»
Stocks vs Buying a house - A tale of two kenyans
Lolest!
#11 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 9:24:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Kihara joni wrote:
Mortgage equals very bad idea unless the house is paying for itself which currently in Kenya is story of giants

Lool!! Story of giants!!
You just made my morning joni
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Lolest!
#12 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 9:44:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Mtumishi. Nice entry. Karibu wazua. I can't find annything to poke holes in your 2scenarios. But middle class fellows saving 53% are very few
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
mtumishi
#13 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 9:52:42 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 1/14/2015
Posts: 3
Location: nairobi
Having received requests from my constituents for a hybrid scenario, here goes:

As John discusses the mortgage calculations he has received from the bank with his wife, he begins to entertain thoughts of moving his family from Kileleshwa. He recalls having seen beautiful apartments for sale in Ruaka when visiting a family friend. His wife is however not sure that they can get good schools in Ruaka and is also worried about insecurity. John manages to calm his wife’s fears by reminding her that their family friend had lived in Ruaka for five years without incident and seemed very happy there. Plus they both agree that an extra bedroom would be nice. John and his wife therefore agree to move to Ruaka by purchasing a 3br apartment that is on sale for 9 million. He decides to take financing for the entire sum of 9m from the bank through a mortgage although he has saved 1.3m cash in his account. The bank informs him that he will pay back a principal sum of Sh. 105,441 pm for 20yrs and will end up paying a total of Sh. 25,306,039. At the end of 20yrs, he finds that the value of his apartment has appreciated to Sh. 35m.

After deducting the mortgage of 105,000 from his Ksh. 155,000 free cash per month, he decides that he will use the balance 50,000 to invest in the NSE although he deducts 5,000pm to cater for estimated increase in his fuel usage driving from Ruaka to his workplace daily. He decides to invest the 1.3m in his account as a lumpsum to kickstart in portfolio. He then instructs his bank to set up a standing order to his broker for Sh. 45,000 pm which he religiously invests for 20yrs. After earning a compounded annual return of 13% from the stock exchange he finds that at 55 his portfolio is valued at Sh. 61,769,304. He also has a defined benefit pension from his employer that is valued at 8m and pays Sh. 66,000pm upon retirement.

Summary of assets at 55: Stock portfolio worth 62m, 3br apartment in Ruaka valued at Sh. 35m and Pension worth 8m for total networth of Sh. 105 million

3br APARTMENT IN RUAKA - SH. 9M
Takeshi
#14 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 10:23:14 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/10/2014
Posts: 78
Applause Very nice post mtumishi, you have highlighted major issues that trouble many of us in making a decision.

A question though, I am not an expert in stocks, is it a guarantee that despite the turbulence, in the long run (say 10 to 20 years) stocks will always give positive returns and for that matter very good returns ?
XSK
#15 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 10:34:05 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 975
Location: Nairobi
Takeshi wrote:
Applause Very nice post mtumishi, you have highlighted major issues that trouble many of us in making a decision.

A question though, I am not an expert in stocks, is it a guarantee that despite the turbulence, in the long run (say 10 to 20 years) stocks will always give positive returns and for that matter very good returns ?


Disclaimer

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance!
You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
Moorings
#16 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 10:45:15 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 67
Location: nairobi
sell the house once it appreciates to 20m, pay off the mortgage [which would have reduced marginaly] say 6m, bank 14m, buy a new apartment cash for 10m, invest 4m in stocks + the entire monthly savings. @ 55yrs he'll come out ahead richer!!!
Swenani
#17 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 10:52:26 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Moorings wrote:
sell the house once it appreciates to 20m, pay off the mortgage [which would have reduced marginaly] say 6m, bank 14m, buy a new apartment cash for 10m, invest 4m in stocks + the entire monthly savings. @ 55yrs he'll come out ahead richer!!!



So only your apartment will appreciate in value while the others remain at 10M?
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
mtumishi
#18 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 10:56:36 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 1/14/2015
Posts: 3
Location: nairobi
@shrewdinvestor. Thx although I would hope that this post is taken as not prescribing one right or wrong way to do things but as an illustration of the famous ‘choices have consequences’ saying.

@sparkly. Beware he who will not read anything due to the fact that it is more than one paragraph as he may well be the same person who wont read the fine print on their mortgage documents or insurance policies or simply relies on his broker’s BUY/SELL recommendations as its too much work to read financial statements. Let each person read and reach their own conclusions
@bird_man. Have you managed to derive the rent? Please share your answer with the rest of the class

@kalameni. Arriving at how much the house would be valued is an area where I would like those with more knowledge than me in this area to assist. Sh. 14.3m to 50m is 6.5% annual growth but my view is that there just may be a ceiling valuation that apartments especially will struggle to surpass. But prices for apartments in Manhattan could prove otherwise.

@lollest!. Very true that a high savings rate has been assumed. But if a person was save and deploy to investments even half of what John and Charles did, they would still end up in a good situation at retirement. Remember that one assumption is a non-working spouse. If the spouse brings in income then the savings goal becomes more attainable. My hope is that this post will inspire at least one person to give it a shot

@takeshi. Good question. Click this link to see an analysis of historical returns for the US stock market. I am yet to see a similar one for the NSE and would love to hear from our stocks gurus on what an average return is reasonable projecting into 20yrs. But studies show that stocks have generally outperformed other asset classes over the long term and I believe that 13% is achievable and some would say even on the conservative side. Remember that the ‘real’ return will require that you adjust the figures for inflation so the 110m networth of 2035 is not necessarily the same as 110m of today but is still a good networth for retirement. The main issue may be just how liquid the networth is to support your living costs.

@xsk. Well put. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns but can be a good guide

Some major assumptions taken in the posts include that both John and Charles don’t lose their jobs or die, that they don’t get better jobs elsewhere, that they don’t get catastrophic medical issues or have to support others with such issues, that their pension does not require contribution from their pay in which case their net pay will need to reflect this, that the mortgage rates remain fixed as variable rates can mean significant changes in the monthly mortgage amount and any other assumptions that wazuans can pick out
jwatesh
#19 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 11:09:09 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/19/2014
Posts: 125
Did we factor in dividends from the stocks held? Dividends are just as high as rent money in some companies invested
Fyatu
#20 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2015 12:05:55 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
@Mtumishi Very stimulating analogy.The hybrid scenario is much more wiser but personally at 55 i would prefer to live somewhere far from ilovi.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
8 Pages<1234>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.