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Unga Group FY 2014 profit up 40%
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 2:25:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
The optimist wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
38.25 with strong demand. It cannot be the 0.75 dividend.
As @muganda states... the new 'bad boy' in town is RESTATEMENT OF PRIOR YEAR RESULTS

40.75 /-
41. No offers and only bids. The sale of Bullpak has added plenty of cash to the pile. Or used the cash to reduce debt. Either way, it is all good. The question is HOW MUCH did Unga get for 51% of Bullpak?

If Bullpak made 91mn PAT and using a 10x PER which = 910mn [possibly a Billion coz there is a 'control' premium] less the value on the books. I estimate 7-10 per share has been added to Unga's NAV over 30th June 2014.
NAV of 41 (per June 2014) + 10 + Other Revaluations [of property] = 60+

And Genghis says 65/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 12:00:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
1) Sale of 51% Bullpak -> PAT from discontinued operations = 92mn -> PER of 11x for control = 1bn cash to be reflected in 1H 2014-15. And now Unga can source packaging materials from other sources.

2) Potential purchase of Bakery (Results Commentary) on track but after additional Due Diligence over 1 year. This was on the initial agenda last year but was removed later on. Additional DD allows for better insights in the business and books. Puma bailed out of KK after additional DD showed weakness in the underlying business & hedges. Will Unga get the bakery cheaper? Or will it look at alternate bakeries? And with a higher share price, the number of shares issued may be reduced significantly vs 2013.

3) 76mn shares with (at least) 51% owned by the Ndegwas (via Victus with 51%) and if they need (insert laugh track here) the cash, they can flip the firm. In 2014 Tiger Brands wanted to buy Rafiki Millers & Magic Ovens for KES 2.1bn http://www.businessdaily...8/-/6oibu7/-/index.html

4) If Rafiki Millers & Magic Ovens - what brands do they sell? - were going at 2.1bn (& there seems there was a price disagreement and I would assume the Sellers wanted more) then why can't Unga be worth 2x? Let's assume 4.2bn for Unga (larger firm, more products, better known brands) = 60/share

5) Land Holdings. "Industrial Area" in Eldoret and Nairobi are becoming prime real estate for the CBD and factories may be better of relocating while keeping distribution centers in/near towns. In Eldoret, the mill is cycling distance from the old CBD and now walking distance with the expanded CBD. In Nairobi, the factory/mill is across the railway line but read this http://www.businessdaily.../-/vf1h3wz/-/index.html and a huge multi-story building can come up (on the existing land) to service the various needs of an expanding city including warehouses, commercial, offices, light industrial and residential. Add proximity to the PSV park and 4-lane highway to Mombasa Road.

6) Brands - There is tremendous value in the brands. We still pay extra for Unga products for home consumption. The extra KES 2-5 per kg for Unga flour is a testament to the branding. Why pay extra? Coz it is for the family's consumption and quality matters.

7) Lower debt, restructuring of Sales Channels, 100% of Uganda business, new Wheat Mill, etc (2012-13 Annual Report and Results Commentary for 2013-14) should increase the EPS in 2014-15 and in later years.

So... is it worth the 65/- that Genghis says?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#13 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 3:22:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
1) Sale of 51% Bullpak -> PAT from discontinued operations = 92mn -> PER of 11x for control = 1bn cash to be reflected in 1H 2014-15. And now Unga can source packaging materials from other sources.

2) Potential purchase of Bakery (Results Commentary) on track but after additional Due Diligence over 1 year. This was on the initial agenda last year but was removed later on. Additional DD allows for better insights in the business and books. Puma bailed out of KK after additional DD showed weakness in the underlying business & hedges. Will Unga get the bakery cheaper? Or will it look at alternate bakeries? And with a higher share price, the number of shares issued may be reduced significantly vs 2013.

3) 76mn shares with (at least) 51% owned by the Ndegwas (via Victus with 51%) and if they need (insert laugh track here) the cash, they can flip the firm. In 2014 Tiger Brands wanted to buy Rafiki Millers & Magic Ovens for KES 2.1bn http://www.businessdaily...8/-/6oibu7/-/index.html

4) If Rafiki Millers & Magic Ovens - what brands do they sell? - were going at 2.1bn (& there seems there was a price disagreement and I would assume the Sellers wanted more) then why can't Unga be worth 2x? Let's assume 4.2bn for Unga (larger firm, more products, better known brands) = 60/share

5) Land Holdings. "Industrial Area" in Eldoret and Nairobi are becoming prime real estate for the CBD and factories may be better of relocating while keeping distribution centers in/near towns. In Eldoret, the mill is cycling distance from the old CBD and now walking distance with the expanded CBD. In Nairobi, the factory/mill is across the railway line but read this http://www.businessdaily.../-/vf1h3wz/-/index.html and a huge multi-story building can come up (on the existing land) to service the various needs of an expanding city including warehouses, commercial, offices, light industrial and residential. Add proximity to the PSV park and 4-lane highway to Mombasa Road.

6) Brands - There is tremendous value in the brands. We still pay extra for Unga products for home consumption. The extra KES 2-5 per kg for Unga flour is a testament to the branding. Why pay extra? Coz it is for the family's consumption and quality matters.

7) Lower debt, restructuring of Sales Channels, 100% of Uganda business, new Wheat Mill, etc (2012-13 Annual Report and Results Commentary for 2013-14) should increase the EPS in 2014-15 and in later years.

So... is it worth the 65/- that Genghis says?


A resounding yes. I wonder why i ever sold out of this share.
You really analyse a business in all angles!!!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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