Iv been following this topic very keenly.
In the last two weeks i have been asking all the people in real estate industry,iv talked to some valuers in villacare,Landmark,Knight frank & tysons. I also went and talked to my Home loan bankers in HF & Stanbic.
I got a variety of conclusions from these market players.
The Real Estate jamaas had mixed feelings. Some were that the real estate market has now stagnated & towards the end of the prices might decline or if the global economy goes up it will rise. Curently they are getting lower offers than the market values,say if upmarket unit is goin for 12M,the clients are offering around 9M to 10M. They are not so confident in the future of this market.
The Bankers on the other hand are also being prudent on their lending due to the recession & inability of clients to pay their loans due to unrealistic prices & lay offs & Interest rates are likely to go up compunding their risks. Examples of houses collecting rents of 45k monthly & mortgage payments of 80k monthly.
Im my opinion id really approach matterss concerning real estate with alot of caution & before investing always get the professional advice before.....

Even the rents in certain areas are goin down.
I really feel bad for the landlords who have those 20year mortgages.
Our Landlord is a relatively young guy. He has 15years left on his mortgage.
In 2006 We used to pay a rent of 50k for this 3bedroom Apartment in Kile.
In 2008 people started moving out looking for cheaper flats. Suddenly in a compound of 40,about 8 were vacant for a duration,New tenants offered 45k per month,soon the reluctant landlords accepted & this suddenly became the standard rate.
In 2009,more people moved & one landlord in diaspora accepted a new tenant paying 40k after fearing his apt would stay vacant for a while. All the tenants in the compound suddenly started giving notices after their 1 year leases ended citing that they could easily move to the vacant apartments in the same compound goin for 40k.
Currently we are paying 40K per month. The landlord pockets 40k less 4K for service charge(cleaning,watchies,swimming pool etc) nett of 36k.
My landlord pays a mortgage of 50k for 15years..... he now has to top up 14k.
I wonder what would happen if say he lost his job that enables him to top up the 14k? or what would happen if the Bank interest rates went up?

if you are going to wait to see empty houses to note the shift in purchasing ability you will see it when the country is collapsing.

People have to live somewhere.

What changes is the guy earning 200k will move into Kile and abandon runda,the guy earning 100K will move out of Kile and move into Buru ... etc.

Also as I stated in another similar thread our inflation rate is so high that if prices arent climbing as fast as they were before the prices are already coming down. A stagnant price from last year to this year is a price decline in Kenya.

@mukwano,

U point out a very important fact about people scaling downwards...from kile to buru and the like....

If I look at it from demand perspective,the demand for higher end houses would reduce significantly...but at the lower end of the market...houses going for 3-6M,I guess the effective demand is sustainable in the foreseeable future,though this segment of the market ain't popular with the developers coz the profits are not as much. However,it is a segment largely ignored by developers but I believe there is money to be made there. Thing of doing in real estate what Equity Bank did to banking.

..wise as a serpent,humble as a dove

@Nyefu,Pilsner

try parts of kile like Gichugu Road,Ole keijudo rd,Kandara rd.
U will definately get some around 40k. advertised at the gate.
The agents are a bunch of cons,Even the watchmen are better.
but if u need their help Call Jacob: 0722-528781.
Happy Hunting.