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Bubble bust..... myth or reality?
a4architect.com
#21 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 6:00:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Horton wrote:
@ Mv_ufanisi. I apologize, I meant 4br flat is sandton http://m.property24.com/.../Listing/P24-100972380. The link is for 14.5m rand which equates to kes 123M. Compare that to Westlands 20-30m. So where is the comparison there?????

Yes the govt has short comings but we need to stop blaming the govt for everything. Remember what JFK said "ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."



I happen to be quite knowledgeable about the property market in Sandton and I can tell you that comparing oranges to oranges Kenyan properties are way overpriced and unaffordable. For example an apartment that costs 1.5M (14M kshs) Rand fetches about 12,000 Rand a month in rent and your mortgage requirement upon paying a 20% deposit will be roughly 12,000 Rand a month. That means that its waay easier to graduate from a renter to an owner in SA.

My main point about criticizing the govt is that home ownership should be seen as a basic need - not a privilege.

Turning over such an important sector of human life over to speculators is almost the same as if the water sector was privatized and water was being sold at outrageous prices.

If Kenya is serious about vision 2030, the government must move strongly on home ownership and ensure as many of its citizens as possible are proud home owners. That's what leads to a much more stable, secure, clean and stable society.

Communities with low home ownership rates ie. primarily rent based such as Nairobi with 70% plus of the population being renters tend to have much worse outcomes in terms of violence, slums, drugs etc.
That's what the govt is allowing to happen by not moving in to ensure that a person with a normal job in Kenya can afford to build a home. If things stay as they are even the so called rich who are profiting from this absurd situation won't be able to enjoy their money in peace.


@mv mfanisi... Well said. I echo your sentiments too. Am impressed at your deep foresight and understanding of the workings of the construction/real estate industry.
The longer Govt keeps sweeping the issue of idle land taxation under the carpet, the closer Kenya will be to total anarchy, Egypt style.

The land commission needs to include fiscal economists into the membership so as to enable a broad mindset on how land affects the economy.

I like your analogy on water industry above.

Its just like a businessman discovering a new method of hoarding air and reselling it according to the markets of demand and supply. If air was to be sold at the highest bidder, to a businessman, this means good business. To a businessman who is foresighted, this wil mean soon people will see the flaws and start to ask themselves why anyone is proffiting from hoarding a product that God has availed to all for free.
God has availed land to all for free but only a few capitalists gain from this.

In developed world eg South Africa, USA, Denmark, most of Europe, its un heard of for people to make money thru speculation on land. This only happens in 3rd world countries with flawed land policies.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
a4architect.com
#22 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 7:02:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
After scientifically calculating the effect of increase in rent when land price in Nairobi is doubled to kes 600,000,000 per acre, am finding out that there is very insignificant rent increase and profitability. In other words, if land price is hiked to kes 600m per acre, no change will happen to rent.

Profitability will only be jeopardised if land price hits 2.8 billion per acre. This will happen in 2030, 17 years , if you calculate using the current appreciation rate of 50% per annum.

Check calculations here

http://www.a4architect.c...nd-prices-appreciation/

We can now comfortably say that for areas where buildings are allowed to go to 10 floors and above, no much change and increase will happen to rent. Once Kenyans learn to build and live in apartments, looks like it will be ok.

This high land appreciation will affect people who intend to build/buy bungalows/maisonettes on 1/8th plots eg kitengela but not people intending to build/buy apartments.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Horton
#23 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 7:09:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
a4architect.com wrote:
After scientifically calculating the effect of increase in rent when land price in Nairobi is doubled to kes 600,000,000 per acre, am finding out that there is very insignificant rent increase and profitability. In other words, if land price is hiked to kes 600m per acre, no change will happen to rent.

Profitability will only be jeopardised if land price hits 2.8 billion per acre. This will happen in 2030, 17 years , if you calculate using the current appreciation rate of 50% per annum.

Check calculations here

http://www.a4architect.c...nd-prices-appreciation/

We can now comfortably say that for areas where buildings are allowed to go to 10 floors and above, no much change and increase will happen to rent. Once Kenyans learn to build and live in apartments, looks like it will be ok.


interesting....just read the article on the website briefly, and it seems we are good for sometime......
a4architect.com
#24 Posted : Monday, November 04, 2013 7:14:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@Horton, very interesting. I did not expect the kind of results but mathematics never lie. Looks like we are yet to see jaw dropping prices on urban lands in Kenya. Until 2.8 billion shillings per acre is reached,around year 2030, its still profitable to buy 1 acre of land around nairobi cbd for any price between kes 300m to kes 2.8b.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
a4architect.com
#25 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 9:04:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
Looks like Real Estate investment in future will only be achievable through REITS since individuals will be totally outpriced. For example, to construct a 1 acre office block in cbd, 10 floor levels, this will cost about kes 2 Billion including land, hence only possible through REITS whereby hundreds or even thousands of people pool resources together to achieve this.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
wanyee
#26 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 10:03:46 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
the work permits debacle makes a dent on the upmarket rental demands..new frontiers open up in the north new kind of expatriate ...oil riggers roughnecks et al that will be the trigger
a4architect.com
#27 Posted : Tuesday, November 05, 2013 10:46:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@wanyee..true...with oil in turkana and other mineral deposits around Kenya, land price will continue to rise. From my calculations above, even without these minerals, land price will still be sustainable with the 50% annual appreciation rate till 2030 since land is a very small fraction of the cost of a high rise building.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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