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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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@VituVingiSana, which results, Centum?
Meanwhile...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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HFCK have grown PBT by 58% as compared to Q3 last year,PAT up 70%.The loan book grew by about a billion shillings versus June 2013(about 3% growth) and 15% growth versus Q3 2012,the increase in the NPLs markedly slower in the last quarter as compared to earlier in the year.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Metasploit wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-) Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today. Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders. CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share ^Metasploit Equity is top mover today Foreign buys; 98.1% Foreign sales; 95.5%
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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obiero wrote:finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M 894.7M,beats your estimate.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-) Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today. Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders. CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share ^Metasploit Equity is top mover today Foreign buys; 98.1% Foreign sales; 95.5% Thanks a bunch .I meant a block bid of 752K. The volumes trading for the past week speaks alot.I will monitor it till Friday. Btw how do you get these stats.I have paid for mystocks which doesnt help me much as it give a net foreign buy/sale.Would pay an arm and a leg for those statistics
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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cnn wrote:obiero wrote:finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M 894.7M,beats your estimate. That was close.
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Metasploit wrote:cnn wrote:obiero wrote:finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M 894.7M,beats your estimate. That was close. @CNN you should be congratulating him instead. Standard deviation/variance too low to warrant that comment. Good job @Obiero! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Metasploit wrote:cnn wrote:obiero wrote:finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M 894.7M,beats your estimate. That was close. @CNN you should be congratulating him instead. Standard deviation/variance too low to warrant that comment. Good job @Obiero! Hope equity brings something close to that.
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Metasploit wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-) Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today. Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders. CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share ^Metasploit Equity is top mover today Foreign buys; 98.1% Foreign sales; 95.5% Thanks a bunch .I meant a block bid of 752K. The volumes trading for the past week speaks alot.I will monitor it till Friday. Btw how do you get these stats.I have paid for mystocks which doesnt help me much as it give a net foreign buy/sale.Would pay an arm and a leg for those statistics I get the data from my brokers' end of day reports (sib & kestrel). Cfc used to have an online trading system for its clients which was giving this data on a real time basis. However, they shifted to a system that doesn't have this :(
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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muganda wrote:@VituVingiSana, which results, Centum?
Meanwhile...
Ahhh, H1 results for Centum are awaited like most other financials. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:obiero wrote:finally, a running commentary by wazua analysts of quarterly results as they come in, to help guests make somewhat informed decisions..
To start us off, projections for Q3 2013:
Equity PBT 17.5B
KCB PBT 17.0B [negative growth]
COOP PBT 9.6B
SCBK PBT 9.5B
BBK PBT 8.9B
DTB PBT 5.6B
I&M PBT 5.5B
CFC PBT 5.2B
NIC PBT 4.1B
NBK PBT 1.3B
HFCK PBT 875M 894.7M,beats your estimate. And that is a great thing! Of course, these are unaudited & we don't know about the NPLs until they are scrutinized further. Great call by @obiero Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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Thanks to all who recognised the close call on HFCK. I only had insider information on two of the stated companies hence most are extrapolated forecasts.. These are useful dialogues that should bring us value as investors. Btw, im a student of Ben Graham.. Most of the foreign buyers and local intelligent investors trade on P/E along other metrics. You must learn to forecast stock price in relation to earnings. Watch out for Coop Bank
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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@Obiero - Whoa! That would mean Co-op is only 400 mn short of full 2012 PBT. I think YTD 3Q will be closer to 9.2bn than 9.6bn. Is your 9.6bn an Exchange Bar guesstimate? Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher ;-) I have his book The Intelligent Investor ;-) If we use an estimated/forward EPS of 2.25 then the PER looks decent but not substantially cheaper than DTB, I&M, NIC or CFC Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 404 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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VituVingiSana wrote:@Obiero - Whoa! That would mean Co-op is only 400 mn short of full 2012 PBT. I think YTD 3Q will be closer to 9.2bn than 9.6bn. Is your 9.6bn an Exchange Bar guesstimate?
Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher ;-) I have his book The Intelligent Investor ;-)
If we use an estimated/forward PAT of 2.25 then the PER looks decent but not substantially cheaper than DTB, I&M, NIC or CFC I anticipate an EPS of about Ksh 1.70 for Q3 2013; and a full year 2013 EPS of 2.35. Happy hunting
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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stocksmaster wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Obiero - Whoa! That would mean Co-op is only 400 mn short of full 2012 PBT. I think YTD 3Q will be closer to 9.2bn than 9.6bn. Is your 9.6bn an Exchange Bar guesstimate?
Ben Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher ;-) I have his book The Intelligent Investor ;-)
If we use an estimated/forward PAT of 2.25 then the PER looks decent but not substantially cheaper than DTB, I&M, NIC or CFC I anticipate an EPS of about Ksh 1.70 for Q3 2013; and a full year 2013 EPS of 2.35. I have to admit I would rather go for I&M, NIC or DTB than Coop at current prices. The difference in the PER is negligible yet the potential growth remains higher for the smaller banks. Coop - Kenya [saturated with a lot of competition from Equity, Family even Jamii Bora] & South Sudan [lot of potential but high risk as well]. I&M, NIC & DTB - Kenya [limited number of branches so there is potential in the High Net Worth as well as larger SMEs. There is a lot of competition but the 'low base effect' has some legs] EAC [small branches/networks but all are pursuing an EAC strategy which is beneficial as the "Coalition of the Willing" gets closer. Many of the cross-border firms are medium enterprises that have one of these as their banker/s. I&M - Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Mauritius. And looking at Uganda. DTB - Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and looking at Rwanda. IFC owns 10% NIC - Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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KCB PBT is for once a top secret? All links iv checked talk about PAT. Who knows the PBT aweke hapa tuone exchange bar kama bado iko alert
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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guru267 wrote:The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues! haha. its js an exhange of figures by wazua faithful.. indeed some are calculated guesses and I have openly stated that.. the guru267 unexplained bitterness continues?!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,515 Location: nairobi
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guru267 wrote:The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues! Btw, badala ya kuropokwa si unaeza leta PBT ya KCB?
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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obiero wrote:guru267 wrote:The guess work masquerading as an 'exchange bar' continues! Btw, badala ya kuropokwa si unaeza leta PBT ya KCB? KCB Q3 2013 PBT Ksh15.1Bn.
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