Wazua
»
Investor
»
Property
»
Land Speculation Remastered
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
|
in the us, bank loans were allowing people to own homes. In kenya, these are only available to very few yet land prices keep increasing to unaffordable values. For kenya, the bubble will burst with mass action/civil disobedience when people will not be able to house and feed themselves.If Ngilu and land commission implements idle land tax, such situations will not occur. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/2/2013 Posts: 22
|
a4architect.com wrote:in the us, bank loans were allowing people to own homes. In kenya, these are only available to very few yet land prices keep increasing to unaffordable values. For kenya, the bubble will burst with mass action/civil disobedience when people will not be able to house and feed themselves.If Ngilu and land commission implements idle land tax, such situations will not occur. Avoiding Idle land tax will be very easy. First, erecting mabati structures will be the way to go just to avoid the tax. Another way will be to lease out the land which will not only earn you income, but help you pay the land rates. Idle land tax will not come to fruition because I wonder what Uhuru will pay as Idle land tax. People who are large land owners run this country. This is Kenya my friend
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
|
ama nipande miti which takes 123 yrs to mature. LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 10/19/2009 Posts: 671 Location: Nairobi
|
murchr wrote:Kalameni wrote:the big question is when this bubble is going to burst ? is it any time soon or will population pressure,massive rural to urban migration sustain it for the next 17yrs till 2030 when our beloved nation becomes a middle income country.
When the real estate bubble bursted in the US it was because people took up loans that they weren't able to pay. How will this bubble burst in Kenya? Are people taking up loans or are they paying cash? Good Question.
Life is joy, death is peace, but the transition is very difficult.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/2/2006 Posts: 1,206 Location: Nairobi
|
What is idle land?What if I plant hay (grass)?Trees? Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
|
kyt wrote:ama nipande miti which takes 123 yrs to mature.  Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/21/2012 Posts: 1,739
|
The Associate wrote:a4architect.com wrote:in the us, bank loans were allowing people to own homes. In kenya, these are only available to very few yet land prices keep increasing to unaffordable values. For kenya, the bubble will burst with mass action/civil disobedience when people will not be able to house and feed themselves.If Ngilu and land commission implements idle land tax, such situations will not occur. Avoiding Idle land tax will be very easy. First, erecting mabati structures will be the way to go just to avoid the tax. Another way will be to lease out the land which will not only earn you income, but help you pay the land rates. Idle land tax will not come to fruition because I wonder what Uhuru will pay as Idle land tax. People who are large land owners run this country. This is Kenya my friend Give good examples Kiyana. UMK is not the biggest land owner in Kenya. He is Probably the 300th. That is a fact. And Indeed, all his land is in Proper use. Big part of Gicheha farm in Ruiru is graze land for Cattle while the other has Commercial trees plantation. Enda nakuru, enda Kwale. Vivyo hivyo. Wacha Kuingilia watu ovyo ovyo. Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God..
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
|
bird_man wrote:What is idle land?What if I plant hay (grass)?Trees? check how various states in usa calculate land tax. idaho forest tax http://www.uidaho.edu/~/...Idaho%20Landowners.ashx
Quote:Example 1: 168 acres, Zone 2, Good site. In 1992,
the average stumpage is 15 MBF (thousand board
feet) mixed conifers per acre, for a total volume of
about 2.5 million board feet. In 1995, 1.5 million
board feet of timber were harvested, and the
landowner received $200/MBF net for a total of
$300,000. It is now 2001 and the land has been in
the Productivity option for the last 10 years. The
average value per acre under this option has been
about $520/acre, and the county taxation rate has
averaged 1% of value; thus, the land was taxed at
$5.20/acre/year. Total property taxes would be
$874/year or $8,740 for the 10 years 1992-2001.
Because the landowner does not anticipate any
additional timber harvest in the next 10-year cycle,
the property will be changed over to the Bare Land
and Yield option in 2002. There is no penalty for
this change from Productivity to Bare Land and
Yield. Some of the publications noted below do not
emphasize this important fact. IDAHO state http://www.michigan.gov/...alProperty_195107_7.pdf
Quote:Example 1: 168 acres, Zone 2, Good site. In 1992,
the average stumpage is 15 MBF (thousand board
feet) mixed conifers per acre, for a total volume of
about 2.5 million board feet. In 1995, 1.5 million
board feet of timber were harvested, and the
landowner received $200/MBF net for a total of
$300,000. It is now 2001 and the land has been in
the Productivity option for the last 10 years. The
average value per acre under this option has been
about $520/acre, and the county taxation rate has
averaged 1% of value; thus, the land was taxed at
$5.20/acre/year. Total property taxes would be
$874/year or $8,740 for the 10 years 1992-2001.
Because the landowner does not anticipate any
additional timber harvest in the next 10-year cycle,
the property will be changed over to the Bare Land
and Yield option in 2002. There is no penalty for
this change from Productivity to Bare Land and
Yield. Some of the publications noted below do not
emphasize this important fact. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
murchr wrote:Kalameni wrote:the big question is when this bubble is going to burst ? is it any time soon or will population pressure,massive rural to urban migration sustain it for the next 17yrs till 2030 when our beloved nation becomes a middle income country.
When the real estate bubble bursted in the US it was because people took up loans that they weren't able to pay. How will this bubble burst in Kenya? Are people taking up loans or are they paying cash? An asset bubble does not mean that the prices will necessary come down. Prices might stagnate to catch up with the rest of the economy. It means there is a mismatch on the price being paid and the underlying asset-value and the market will correct itself. If you keep raising the price of the land that you bought and fenced off you will find at one point there are no buyers at the price you are quoting. That's when the house of cards comes tumbling down. People might be paying cash but somewhere there is a someone who is borrowing or lending and who is taking a gamble with other people's money hoping that buyers will keep buying at ever higher prices.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 8/27/2010 Posts: 495 Location: Nairobi
|
webish wrote:murchr wrote:
When the real estate bubble bursted in the US it was because people took up loans that they weren't able to pay. How will this bubble burst in Kenya? Are people taking up loans or are they paying cash?
Good Question. Actually, a very misleading question, just as misleading as the housing demand statistics being bandied around. Whether the purchases are financed by loans or cash doesn’t even come close to explaining what drives an asset bubble. How and where the speculators get their financing is an absolute pointless question. The driving factor for speculating in real estate is exactly the same as in any pyramid scheme. In property bubbles (US, Kenya, Spain, what-have-you), greed for massive profits is/was the driving factor, exactly the same emotion which fueled the DECI and co. schemes. Rational thought was thrown out the window. Bubbles are always driven by emotions which are unsustainable, pure and simple. At the NSE, the KQ and SAFCON IPO’s were prime examples of speculative greed and mass hysteria at play, just as we are witnessing in real estate. Note: taking a4architect’s estimation from his site, “ A median estimate of 25% price appreciation for high cost land around Nairobi can be safely guestimated” and plugging in the average land price of KES 35’000’000.00 (2013) per acre in Karen, in 2030, the average price of an acre would be KShs. 1.5b. Definition of “Greater Fool Theory” from BusinessDictionary.com: “Observation that any price (no matter how unrealistic) can be justified if a buyer believes that there is another buyer who will pay an even-higher price for the same item. This line of thinking causes and fuels stockmarket and commodity market booms and manias which, in due course, lead to busts and paranoias.” Sent from my Black Nokia 3310
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Property
»
Land Speculation Remastered
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|