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Banking Sector Valuation and Recommendation - Year 2013
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. As you remain sceptical, foreigners are enjoying being in the buy side of the counter. They now own 47% of the bank compared to 40.82% in October 2011. The share has gained 53.2% in the past year to Sh35.25, making it the most valuable bank at NSE. #Na_Bado
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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mwekez@ji wrote:guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. As you remain sceptical, foreigners are enjoying being in the buy side of the counter. They now own 47% of the bank compared to 40.82% in October 2011. The share has gained 53.2% in the past year to Sh35.25, making it the most valuable bank at NSE. #Na_Bado For it is written,they can never be wanjikus.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. @Mwekez@ji the foreigners are not on the ground and will the first to bolt when the truth comes out! But enyewe you've never asked yourself why the high turnover on one specific job?? CFOs cannot be dropping like flies from a company without raising red flags... Are you aware its mainly the CFO who takes the fall when the company is busted?? Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mkeiyd wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. As you remain sceptical, foreigners are enjoying being in the buy side of the counter. They now own 47% of the bank compared to 40.82% in October 2011. The share has gained 53.2% in the past year to Sh35.25, making it the most valuable bank at NSE. #Na_Bado For it is written,they can never be wanjikus. Indeed. ... &Helios is in and staying <that_says_alot>
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. @Mwekez@ji the foreigners are not on the ground and will the first to bolt when the truth comes out! But enyewe you've never asked yourself why the high turnover on one specific job?? CFOs cannot be dropping like flies from a company without raising red flags... Are you aware its mainly the CFO who takes the fall when the company is busted?? Foreigners are not on the ground but they have their research well done by themselves and people on the ground. Reference case is the run-up to march 2013 election. They played the peace dividend while locals lost out. And they are still playing the great future ahead as locals remain skeptical
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:guru267 wrote:guru267 wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. @Mwekez@ji the foreigners are not on the ground and will the first to bolt when the truth comes out! But enyewe you've never asked yourself why the high turnover on one specific job?? CFOs cannot be dropping like flies from a company without raising red flags... Are you aware its mainly the CFO who takes the fall when the company is busted?? Foreigners are not on the ground but they have their research well done by themselves and people on the ground. Reference case is the run-up to march 2013 election. They played the peace dividend while locals lost out. And they are still playing the great future ahead as locals remain skeptical … Am sure you also know Helios wouldn’t be comfortably holding a high 24.45% in Equity if all was not well. … Also note that Equity is majorly owned by non-wanjiku (read, shareholders with over 1M shares own 92.86% of the bank) … & have you asked yourself why none of the previous Equity CFOs have talked of book cooking in the bank …. watch the current CFO, Mwangi & Team drive Equity to great heights …. skepticals have to keep seeing to believe it … watch ... seeing is believing for you
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@mweke with the way things are going...EB will be done once JM is done...I once had a chat with a top shareholder who wanted to offload...a top shareholder FYI!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Foreigners are not on the ground but they have their research well done by themselves and people on the ground. Reference case is the run-up to march 2013 election. They played the peace dividend while locals lost out. And they are still playing the great future ahead as locals remain skeptical
… Am sure you also know Helios wouldn’t be comfortably holding a high 24.45% in Equity if all was not well. … Also note that Equity is majorly owned by non-wanjiku (read, shareholders with over 1M shares own 92.86% of the bank) … & have you asked yourself why none of the previous Equity CFOs have talked of book cooking in the bank …. watch the current CFO, Mwangi & Team drive Equity to great heights …. skepticals have to keep seeing to believe it … watch ... seeing is believing for you @Mwekez@ji have you ever heard of non disclosure agreements?? This would adequately explain the silence on the matter! As for the shareholders.. Who were the top 10 shareholders of enron before it went bust?! I'm sure they were much bigger than helios etc!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@guru @thedeal #Noted ;-)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The analysts are back and selling banks is the tune just when 5000 seems to stall the 5th attempt to break it down... But now they've spotted CFC bank as a gem after ages...
NSE20 is sitting in a tight ascending triangle waiting to break above 5030 or below 4860 - 170pts band. Big volume is piling up since last month. It's only a matter of time before the next trend becomes clear. Sidelined for now until the break (up or down) is confirmed. And it will be sizable just like those large volumes....$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 cc @ symbols and the BD writer in post #30
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mwekez@ji wrote:Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond. GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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the deal wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond. GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all. 1. We are done with the phase where CBK had tightened monetary policy. Monetary easing phase is now here 2. It is common-sense that a developing country like ours will keep borrowing even in an easing cycle. The borrowing does not stop the easing cycle and does not have to crowd out private lending. 3. I repeat, government borrowings will not ceaze. The government will issue euro bond but not for recurrent expenditure. They will also borrow internally. 4. Government will also majorly use a mixture of revenue generating sources (taxes, duties et al) to fund development. I expect government to strike a good equilibrium that will be good for the people. We have a think-tank working on achieving this equilibrium. 5. Watch private lending increase at double digit 6. Watch banking sector grow at double digit
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mwekez@ji wrote:the deal wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond. GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all. 1. We are done with the phase where CBK had tightened monetary policy. Monetary easing phase is now here 2. It is common-sense that a developing country like ours will keep borrowing even in an easing cycle. The borrowing does not stop the easing cycle and does not have to crowd out private lending. 3. I repeat, government borrowings will not ceaze. The government will issue euro bond but not for recurrent expenditure. They will also borrow internally. 4. Government will also majorly use a mixture of revenue generating sources (taxes, duties et al) to fund development. I expect government to strike a good equilibrium that will be good for the people. We have a think-tank working on achieving this equilibrium. 5. Watch private lending increase at double digit 6. Watch banking sector grow by double digit LOL you sound like a politician...let me put you on the spot argue like an economist....argue with numbers. 1. You didnt give evidence that GoK has not been overcrowding the private sector? 2. How long do you think the easing cycle will last? lets talk business cycles here. 3. Lets stick to my initial post....put aside banking sector growth etc...we are talking macro here.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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the deal wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:the deal wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond. GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all. 1. We are done with the phase where CBK had tightened monetary policy. Monetary easing phase is now here 2. It is common-sense that a developing country like ours will keep borrowing even in an easing cycle. The borrowing does not stop the easing cycle and does not have to crowd out private lending. 3. I repeat, government borrowings will not ceaze. The government will issue euro bond but not for recurrent expenditure. They will also borrow internally. 4. Government will also majorly use a mixture of revenue generating sources (taxes, duties et al) to fund development. I expect government to strike a good equilibrium that will be good for the people. We have a think-tank working on achieving this equilibrium. 5. Watch private lending increase at double digit 6. Watch banking sector grow by double digit LOL you sound like a politician...let me put you on the spot argue like an economist....argue with numbers. 1. You didnt give evidence that GoK has not been overcrowding the private sector? 2. How long do you think the easing cycle will last? lets talk business cycles here. 3. Lets stick to my initial post....put aside banking sector growth etc...we are talking macro here. > You are so stuck in past phase which we are now done with that you aint seen the present and the future > We are in an easing cycle that will last for a long time. May it last for at least 4years > Private lending was restrained to single digit in the economic cycle that just ended. Now that we are in easing cycle, watch it grow at c20%
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”
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