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kenolkobil returns to profit in Q1 2013
guru267
#21 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:42:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
madebe wrote:
Bloomberg quotes a report by old mutual that say Kenol is a Buy and Total sell. who has the report???

old-mutual-starts-coverage-on-kenolkobil-with-buy-total-on-sell http://mobile.bloomberg....-buy-total-on-sell.html


These guys are not on the ground... They are using outdated info like Africa "expansion" to arrive at this rating...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#22 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:17:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
madebe wrote:
Bloomberg quotes a report by old mutual that say Kenol is a Buy and Total sell. who has the report???

old-mutual-starts-coverage-on-kenolkobil-with-buy-total-on-sell http://mobile.bloomberg....-buy-total-on-sell.html


These guys are not on the ground... They are using outdated info like Africa "expansion" to arrive at this rating...



These are the same chaps who gave a buy recommendation on NBK a loooooong time ago. What was NBK price then and what’s the price now¿ I pity their clients!
mwekez@ji
#23 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:26:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
James G. Mathenge has been appointed chairman of KK >>> http://www.kenolkobil.com/index...rs-appoints-new-chairman
ProverB
#24 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 9:27:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..rumor has it..i mean RUMOR..that old mutual "pumped and dumped" kq back in 05-07 from Kshs 16 to 126..leaving guys holding on to a "used scratch card"..

..i said "rumor has it"

..there's principle of investing known as "follow the money"..

If i had, i mean myself and not them..if I had pockets as deep as OM's pocket..sema 200million hivi..i may..i mean me and not them..i may wipe out supply of any stock priced below 10bob at whim..create scarcity on that stock..spark up a price race irregardless of fundamentals.. There's no law that says you cannot buy crap.. smile

..using money to harness and guide greed of those with quite little money..

I learnt..and learnt well..that the Golden rule of investing says.."He who has the gold..makes the rules." smile

..I care less about Old Mutual's analysis..all i know..their mouth follows their money...while everyone else has their money follow their mouth.. But that's just me.. I'm probably wrong...but the temptation is so real.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
the deal
#25 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 10:07:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The people who don't own KK shares are the loudest here...I always Ignore such folks.
hisah
#26 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 11:37:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ProverB wrote:
..rumor has it..i mean RUMOR..that old mutual "pumped and dumped" kq back in 05-07 from Kshs 16 to 126..leaving guys holding on to a "used scratch card"..

..i said "rumor has it"

..there's principle of investing known as "follow the money"..

If i had, i mean myself and not them..if I had pockets as deep as OM's pocket..sema 200million hivi..i may..i mean me and not them..i may wipe out supply of any stock priced below 10bob at whim..create scarcity on that stock..spark up a price race irregardless of fundamentals.. There's no law that says you cannot buy crap.. smile

..using money to harness and guide greed of those with quite little money..

I learnt..and learnt well..that the Golden rule of investing says.."He who has the gold..makes the rules." smile

..I care less about Old Mutual's analysis..all i know..their mouth follows their money...while everyone else has their money follow their mouth.. But that's just me.. I'm probably wrong...but the temptation is so real.


When you open your hedgefund let me know. I like you thinking smile




Think like a hedgefund manager - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nm9MUyA9fOM

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Jamani
#27 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 4:17:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Any info from those that attended on how the meeting was?
mwekez@ji
#28 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 5:34:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
#AGM, planned disposal of noncore assets could raise USD 60m (KES 5.1B ) to reduce debt ... if so, this will not conquer the total debt which stood at KES 16.6B in Dec 2012 .... cc@jamani
guru267
#29 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 5:52:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
#AGM, planned disposal of noncore assets could raise USD 60m (KES 145M) to reduce debt. .... if so, this will not conquer the long term debt with stood at KES 667.5M in Dec 2012. ... cc@Jamani


@Mwekez@ji just curious about your math??

USD 60M = KES 5billion so I was wondering where are you getting KES 145M??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#30 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 6:12:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@guru, noted. thex
Jamani
#31 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 6:35:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
#AGM, planned disposal of noncore assets could raise USD 60m (KES 145M) to reduce debt. .... if so, this will not conquer the long term debt with stood at KES 667.5M in Dec 2012. ... cc@Jamani


@Mwekez@ji just curious about your math??

USD 60M = KES 5billion so I was wondering where are you getting KES 145M??



cc noted.
VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 10:03:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,126
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
#AGM, planned disposal of noncore assets could raise USD 60m (KES 5.1B ) to reduce debt ... if so, this will not conquer the total debt which stood at KES 16.6B in Dec 2012 .... cc@jamani
Well, reducing it from 16.6bn to 11.5bn is still a huge plus. You don't pay down your loans only in full. It makes sense to pay down what you can when you can to reduce the overall impact of debt costs.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#33 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 10:44:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
#AGM, planned disposal of noncore assets could raise USD 60m (KES 5.1B ) to reduce debt ... if so, this will not conquer the total debt which stood at KES 16.6B in Dec 2012 .... cc@jamani
Well, reducing it from 16.6bn to 11.5bn is still a huge plus. You don't pay down your loans only in full. It makes sense to pay down what you can when you can to reduce the overall impact of debt costs.


This is unfortunately a show of very poor management skills on Segman's part!

They took debt to acquire assets and then they are now selling assets to pay back the same debt!

Pretty scary if you ask me...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 12:31:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,126
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
#AGM, planned disposal of noncore assets could raise USD 60m (KES 5.1B ) to reduce debt ... if so, this will not conquer the total debt which stood at KES 16.6B in Dec 2012 .... cc@jamani
Well, reducing it from 16.6bn to 11.5bn is still a huge plus. You don't pay down your loans only in full. It makes sense to pay down what you can when you can to reduce the overall impact of debt costs.

This is unfortunately a show of very poor management skills on Segman's part!

They took debt to acquire assets and then they are now selling assets to pay back the same debt!

Pretty scary if you ask me...
Really? Wow! I had no idea there is a concept of using debt to buy assets. No idea. Zero. Zilch. Sufuri. And to sell these assets at a decent gain to repay debt? Wow! Sacre bleu!

Segman must be the first one to do so and whoever buys assets (inventory, land, buildings, shares, etc) at low(er) prices using debt and then sells them at higher prices must be off his rocker. Now I understand why folks were upset when Williamson took on debt, built Williamson House [sold 50% while it was being built] then cashed in by selling the remaining 50% for 450mn. Crazy! Why go through the hassle to make 300mn in Capital Gains?

Or that Paul Kinuthia chap who borrowed, built up Nice & Lovely [including buildings, machinery, etc] & then sold it off to L'Oreal for a few billions & used part of it to repay his debt. Crazy chap that! He should have stayed small & debt-free ;-) Or the Murayas who borrow from banks to buy assets [land & buildings] then sell them off at higher prices to repay the debt! Crazy is Sue!

*That said, I do not endorse reckless borrowing like KQ has done*
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
selah
#35 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 10:56:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@VVS even though you raise valid points,I think it is still poor management when a company sells non performing assets to pay a debt.This strategy only benefit the company in the long term but in the short term the company will still have to deal with issues that made it borrow in the 1st place.

Segman has been reckless the losses were mainly his strategic failures.KQ is different in that the business is capital intensive and volatile unlike the Oil business,which is predictable.

Let us give KK the benefit of doubt and assume they have seen the error in their ways and are reforming the house for real...are we as investors going to sweep Segman managerial failures under the carpet, especially with the derivatives and just forget?

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwekez@ji
#36 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 12:13:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@VVS, and others who attended the AGM or are in the know

(i) What are the non-recurring restructuring expenses that will be incurred this year? Is KK laying off?

(ii) How much is expected to be spent on the restructuring?

(iii) What was said regarding NOCK buying out KK?

(iv) What other striking matters were discussed at the AGM?
dunkang
#37 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 2:47:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831


Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Kausha
#38 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 4:40:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@selah you invest in KK without understanding the business. KK borrows to finance inventory and the price of that borrowing is priced in the petrol you bought this week. Surely You don't expect KK to keep 20B in cash to fund inventory which is sold within 45 days do you? Same thing to a bank which borrows our money - as kept in out accounts and lends it to customers. They promptly collect every month and return it/ make it available to us. So should the bank keep 100billion in equity to lend customers ? What KK is doing is generating cash from non productive assets - read stations that don't produce much return compared to the earth they are sitting on in order to reduce long term funding and importantly provide capital to fund opportunities that can produce more. In other words sell Kobil on Koinange coz the land it's siting on is worth many many more times than that petrol station will produce and use the proceeds to fund oil storage facilities in Dar which will produce more money than that land is worth! comprende!! It's called efficient capital allocation and reallocation.

KK let go 80 staff last year and restructuring costs were in last year's ugly P&L.. Frankly speaking I think Segman is among the best CEO's if not the best in this country. He had the balls to admit they erred and what they are doing about it, all this without asking for Capital. Remind me of any CEO on NSE who has admitted as much and provided a road map. All we hear are blames on economy, weather, Europe, politics, mass etc. Meanwhile KQ still hedges after their errors and we don't know what changes were made to the hedging policy. A lot of the capital raisings on the NSE have been to cover up errors by management. KCB has had 2 to cover Triton et all, Co-op was rescued by US Govt and GoK, KQ has had one, Standard Chartered etc...KK made a mistake, admitted and didn't ask for capital!!
mkeiyd
#39 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 5:08:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
Kausha wrote:
@selah you invest in KK without understanding the business. KK borrows to finance inventory and the price of that borrowing is priced in the petrol you bought this week. Surely You don't expect KK to keep 20B in cash to fund inventory which is sold within 45 days do you? Same thing to a bank which borrows our money - as kept in out accounts and lends it to customers. They promptly collect every month and return it/ make it available to us. So should the bank keep 100billion in equity to lend customers ? What KK is doing is generating cash from non productive assets - read stations that don't produce much return compared to the earth they are sitting on in order to reduce long term funding and importantly provide capital to fund opportunities that can produce more. In other words sell Kobil on Koinange coz the land it's siting on is worth many many more times than that petrol station will produce and use the proceeds to fund oil storage facilities in Dar which will produce more money than that land is worth! comprende!! It's called efficient capital allocation and reallocation.

KK let go 80 staff last year and restructuring costs were in last year's ugly P&L.. Frankly speaking I think Segman is among the best CEO's if not the best in this country. He had the balls to admit they erred and what they are doing about it, all this without asking for Capital. Remind me of any CEO on NSE who has admitted as much and provided a road map. All we hear are blames on economy, weather, Europe, politics, mass etc. Meanwhile KQ still hedges after their errors and we don't know what changes were made to the hedging policy. A lot of the capital raisings on the NSE have been to cover up errors by management. KCB has had 2 to cover Triton et all, Co-op was rescued by US Govt and GoK, KQ has had one, Standard Chartered etc...KK made a mistake, admitted and didn't ask for capital!!


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mwekez@ji
#40 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 9:22:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mkeiyd wrote:
Kausha wrote:
@selah you invest in KK without understanding the business. KK borrows to finance inventory and the price of that borrowing is priced in the petrol you bought this week. Surely You don't expect KK to keep 20B in cash to fund inventory which is sold within 45 days do you? Same thing to a bank which borrows our money - as kept in out accounts and lends it to customers. They promptly collect every month and return it/ make it available to us. So should the bank keep 100billion in equity to lend customers ? What KK is doing is generating cash from non productive assets - read stations that don't produce much return compared to the earth they are sitting on in order to reduce long term funding and importantly provide capital to fund opportunities that can produce more. In other words sell Kobil on Koinange coz the land it's siting on is worth many many more times than that petrol station will produce and use the proceeds to fund oil storage facilities in Dar which will produce more money than that land is worth! comprende!! It's called efficient capital allocation and reallocation.

KK let go 80 staff last year and restructuring costs were in last year's ugly P&L.. Frankly speaking I think Segman is among the best CEO's if not the best in this country. He had the balls to admit they erred and what they are doing about it, all this without asking for Capital. Remind me of any CEO on NSE who has admitted as much and provided a road map. All we hear are blames on economy, weather, Europe, politics, mass etc. Meanwhile KQ still hedges after their errors and we don't know what changes were made to the hedging policy. A lot of the capital raisings on the NSE have been to cover up errors by management. KCB has had 2 to cover Triton et all, Co-op was rescued by US Govt and GoK, KQ has had one, Standard Chartered etc...KK made a mistake, admitted and didn't ask for capital!!


Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause


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Someone has just been misled. .... in point of fact:

1. KK is selling the assets to reduce debt level. Not for investment ABC, Dar, ...

2. KK will incur restructuring cost in 2013

These have been explicitly stated by Segman in his latest update
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