Looks like it will fall back to 200 or below levels!!

#FA, Jubilee Insurance FY12 performance comes out below peer >>> Jubilee insurance posts 16.37% rise in FY12 EPS. Jubilee insurance released its FY12 performance figures posting a 16.37% y/y rise in EPS to KES 35. Net earned premium climbed 27.7% to KES 15.4bn. Due to the upturn in the equities market as well as a high interest rate environment, investment income rose 17.3% y/y while fair value changes turned positive to KES 444m (-329m FY11). Claims payable climbed 40% with loss ratio deteriorating significantly to 91% vs. 83% FY11. Jubilee’s loss ratio is higher than our sector average at 63.4% due to the nature of its business. Jubilee primarily writes medical insurance (29% of total premiums) which suffers from high loss ratios due to among other things fraudulent claims. As at 2011, the medical insurance class suffered a loss ratio of 83.8% in the insurance industry vs. a 59% loss ratio for the industry’s short term insurance segment average. Jubilee accounts for 21% of total industry’s medical insurance premiums. Total operating expenses rose 24.82% with underwriting expense ratio declining to 23.51% (vs. 24.58% FY) and acquisition expense ratio flat at 22%. The underwriter proposed a final dividend of KES 6 and had earlier paid an interim of KES 1 bringing total dividend to KES 7 (vs. KES 5 FY11). At its current price Jubilee is trading at PE of 7.36x, PB of 1.94x and dividend yield of 2.63%. (Company filing, Standard Investment Bank)

Here is how I'm looking at the numbers

1. Private Equity didnt perform well despite Bujagali being commissioned.

2. Quoted Investment-performed well. Bounced from a loss position

3. Insurance-performed dismally as indicated by the y/y surge in claims. Change of strategy needed here i.e reduce the medical book. High morbidity rates & fraud makes Medical underwritting bad business.

Overall

Still good company but fundamentals took a knock...At the current price it remains a BUY due to +ve outlook.

The return on their pension scheme is quite good 12.75%