@Sisqo - For KE monetary stuff check this thread which goes back to March 2010 -
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...aspx?g=posts&t=6382 M1 grew marginally in 2012 on a yoy measure compared to 2010 vs 2011. Note inflation spiked weakening the KES in 2011 as well as central bank funding rates sharply hiked. After the kneejerk tightening by CBK in 2011, the funding rate has been cut from a high of 18% to 9.5% recently in order to stimulate the economy suffering a growth slump (some firms issued profit warnings). Some of this stimulus will find its way in the equity market thus the bear run in 2011 & rebound in 2012.
Compared to the number of CEOs that bought a stake in their firms in 2012 vs those that sold, the former were more. E.g. KCB, Barclays, Access Kenya, Rea Vipingo etc. Those that sold mostly were conforming to CMA'S shareholding threshold rules.
Like I said before there is still fear in the market thus the dismal retail investor activity since 2011 when the bear run was strong. The rebound in 2012 was largely an institutional investors fanfare and still remains so from the heavy blue chips turnover. Pump & dump works well when retail investors (wanjikus) are more bullish than institutionals.
While I agree that MSC is acting strange based on its bad fundies, you can't use it as your reference for your argument. The 2012 rebound was powered by select counters mostly blue chips. In a bull euphoria majority of stocks rally since irrational logic runs the show as investors get greed-drunk.
In summary, bullish euphoria = gross greed, bearish euphoria = morbid fear.
NSE is still at the cautionary bullish level, which means fear is greater than greed thus the rally confounding the so called analysts esp now with near term elections.
If and when morbid greed checks in, that's the time I'll agree with with this pump & dump theory.
All the best to those in cash as well as those in the fearful bull mbus...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!