Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/23/2010 Posts: 63 Location: Kampala
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mwekez@ji wrote:@msimon #? mwekez unfortunately i cant give an independent opinion. But i heard someone say the following, dont ask who! "Concerning UAPHL. I think the offer isnt bad, its just not attractive compared to; 1. Jubilee 2. Considering other investments. Ideally, the holder of this stock is looking at a holding period inexcess of 5 years for a good annual return. However, in the period between, there are about 4-5 ideas that can make you more money with more liquidity. What Kausha says concerning the duration of the projects is true, as the breakeven is logically 5yrs. However, there are opportunities for the "big maybes" subsidiaries being setup in the region. One of ma key concerns is the ambitious expansion theory-the whole"New markets every 18 months" maybe a receip for disaster. Overall, the company has good leadership in Domnic and Co. and they should be able to get the job done. Targets are high i.e doubling NAV etc. and they will be achived. But where is my money going at the moment??? Certainly not in the offer based on valuations!"
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@msimon, #Touché! #Asante xana
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:Kausha wrote:Have you considered the lenders opting not to convert if their valuation expectations prove onerous. @kausha if the lenders do not convert those bonds it will be good news in the long run for shareholders since it will reduce dilution of their shares!! If i were a UAP shareholder i would actually be praying that they dont convert because even if we will have to pay interest on a loan it beats paying lifetime dividends to new shareholders  @kausha @guru , the lenders are converting NOW at a price of KES 57.68 per Share. They have already issued conversion notice in respect of their loans. Read clause 15, page 141.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Genghis Capital, the Joint Lead Placing Agent of this offer and the subsequent Joint Administrator of OTC platform in respect to UAP shares, has fairly valued UAP at KES 67.55. Thats a mere 12.6% upside from the current offer price of KES 60. And our memory is still clear on what happened to TCL yet the same Genghis Capital had valued TCL at KES 62.35 The Genghis Capital Valuation of TCL LinkThat said, i echo @msimon sentiments #post 21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,777 Location: NAIROBI
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The counter is overvalued.At 60 it hss a higher market capitalisation than Jubilee,Kenya Re and Britam. Kenya Re and Jubilee made double the profits of UAP in FY 2011 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,208 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:The counter is overvalued.At 60 it hss a higher market capitalisation than Jubilee,Kenya Re and Britam.
Kenya Re and Jubilee made double the profits of UAP in FY 2011 I have not looked at it in detail but... if the numbers are true then wow! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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Seems Wazua is silent on this UAP public offer but BGL is in! History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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BGL wrote:Seems Wazua is silent on this UAP public offer but BGL is in! I'm also !n. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/21/2006 Posts: 422 Location: Nairobi
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I think UAP was just too pricy, Kshs 60 per share was too high. I kept off.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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Layman wrote:I think UAP was just too pricy, Kshs 60 per share was too high. I kept off. They just wanted 1000 shareholders which informed a minimum of 120K. I think it will be over subscribed. History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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UAP Holdings Q3 2012 Management Accounts http://www.uap-group.com..._Management_Accounts.pdfHistory will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/6/2010 Posts: 289
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These results are too good to be true ! And when r the iPo results out?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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gesowan wrote:These results are too good to be true ! And when r the iPo results out? Is it 21st? The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/11/2012 Posts: 12 Location: Bermuda
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The results make sense to me; the improved net profit position is mainly explained by the huge increase (221%) in the investment income. This to me is expected considering the improved returns from the financial markets in 2012 compared to 2011. With an improved loss ratio by 4% points, one would have expected underwriting activities to contribute more to the bottom line considering the net commission ratio is unchanged compared to 2011. However, they are ceding more business as evidenced by the decrease in the retention ratio by 4% points. I however still think that one can get a better value elsewhere than the 60 per share on UAP OTC. As for the dates, the offer results will be announced on Dec 21, 2012, allocation of shares and updating the share register will happen on Jan 3, 2013 and OTC trading starts on Jan 9, 2013. ...When they count the men who built Kenya, will you be in the list? I choose to go long term....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,208 Location: Nairobi
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jacmuchiri wrote:The results make sense to me; the improved net profit position is mainly explained by the huge increase (221%) in the investment income. This to me is expected considering the improved returns from the financial markets in 2012 compared to 2011. With an improved loss ratio by 4% points, one would have expected underwriting activities to contribute more to the bottom line considering the net commission ratio is unchanged compared to 2011. However, they are ceding more business as evidenced by the decrease in the retention ratio by 4% points. I however still think that one can get a better value elsewhere than the 60 per share on UAP OTC.
As for the dates, the offer results will be announced on Dec 21, 2012, allocation of shares and updating the share register will happen on Jan 3, 2013 and OTC trading starts on Jan 9, 2013. Are the new shares eligible for the dividend/s for FY 2012? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:jacmuchiri wrote:The results make sense to me; the improved net profit position is mainly explained by the huge increase (221%) in the investment income. This to me is expected considering the improved returns from the financial markets in 2012 compared to 2011. With an improved loss ratio by 4% points, one would have expected underwriting activities to contribute more to the bottom line considering the net commission ratio is unchanged compared to 2011. However, they are ceding more business as evidenced by the decrease in the retention ratio by 4% points. I however still think that one can get a better value elsewhere than the 60 per share on UAP OTC.
As for the dates, the offer results will be announced on Dec 21, 2012, allocation of shares and updating the share register will happen on Jan 3, 2013 and OTC trading starts on Jan 9, 2013. Are the new shares eligible for the dividend/s for FY 2012? @VVS, No and Yes. No to the interim dividend of KES 0.85 because books closed on 30 June, 2012 (Clause 13.4, Dividend Payment Policy and History, Page 128-129 of IM). Yes to final and future dividends because the issued shares rank pari passu in all respects with the Existing Shares (Clause 7.11, Issue of Shares, page 42 of IM) including right to participate in FY 2012 dividend (Status of the Offer Shares, page 4-5 of IM) I however dont expect much dividend here. The dividend payment history has spoken. @jacmuchiri, Fair value gains on investment properties must have also significantly contributed to that investment income. On UAP as an investment case at KES 60/-, i retain and concur with you that there is better value elsewhere.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,208 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:jacmuchiri wrote:The results make sense to me; the improved net profit position is mainly explained by the huge increase (221%) in the investment income. This to me is expected considering the improved returns from the financial markets in 2012 compared to 2011. With an improved loss ratio by 4% points, one would have expected underwriting activities to contribute more to the bottom line considering the net commission ratio is unchanged compared to 2011. However, they are ceding more business as evidenced by the decrease in the retention ratio by 4% points. I however still think that one can get a better value elsewhere than the 60 per share on UAP OTC.
As for the dates, the offer results will be announced on Dec 21, 2012, allocation of shares and updating the share register will happen on Jan 3, 2013 and OTC trading starts on Jan 9, 2013. Are the new shares eligible for the dividend/s for FY 2012? @VVS, No and Yes. No to the interim dividend of KES 0.85 because books closed on 30 June, 2012 (Clause 13.4, Dividend Payment Policy and History, Page 128-129 of IM). Yes to final and future dividends because the issued shares rank pari passu in all respects with the Existing Shares (Clause 7.11, Issue of Shares, page 42 of IM) including right to participate in FY 2012 dividend (Status of the Offer Shares, page 4-5 of IM) I however dont expect much dividend here. The dividend payment history has spoken. @jacmuchiri, Fair value gains on investment properties must have also significantly contributed to that investment income. On UAP as an investment case at KES 60/-, i retain and concur with you that there is better value elsewhere. With the trend of new firms listing... I expect a profit warning in the next year! See what happened immediately after listing for Britam & Longhorn. Will UAP buck the trend in 2013? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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2013 will be very tough considering its projects will take long to start generating income. All the more the reasons Centum refused to sign the lock up agreements. Centum will jump out of this counter soon
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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A good portion of the investment income jump is likely to have come from property revaluations since there is work in progress anyway. From the IM and balance sheet UAP uses available for sale for bulk of it's equity portfolio and not held for trading. Management accounts suggests so. Me I think the offer price was too high for such an offer. Any indications of the amounts raised..
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/11/2012 Posts: 12 Location: Bermuda
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@Kausha agreed. The property revaluations could be a good avenue to 'massage' the results... ...When they count the men who built Kenya, will you be in the list? I choose to go long term....
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