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ARM Nine Month pre-tax profit jumps 304 percent
Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/12/2012 Posts: 92
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you should be looking to sell just before the split....experience ....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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Someone please educate me; Is ARM still supposed to be trading at 223 or should it be trading at the post split price??
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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xxxxx wrote:Someone please educate me; Is ARM still supposed to be trading at 223 or should it be trading at the post split price?? Should be trading at post split price. Seeing one trade for 100 shares has gone thru at pre split price. Hop it's an error coz demand currently coming in at 41.50. Nearest offer at 80. Talk bout bein greedy  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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Seems there is no activity on this counter today. Has the post slip price been set? There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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MoneyMonger wrote:Seems there is no activity on this counter today. Has the post slip price been set? ...watu bado wako holiday mood... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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the split was 4 or 5? cant remember coz it has taken for ever to be effected Thieves
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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King G wrote:the split was 4 or 5? cant remember coz it has taken for ever to be effected The split was to be 1:5 There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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MoneyMonger wrote:King G wrote:the split was 4 or 5? cant remember coz it has taken for ever to be effected The split was to be 1:5 thanks! Thieves
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:xxxxx wrote:Someone please educate me; Is ARM still supposed to be trading at 223 or should it be trading at the post split price?? Should be trading at post split price. Seeing one trade for 100 shares has gone thru at pre split price. Hop it's an error coz demand currently coming in at 41.50. Nearest offer at 80. Talk bout bein greedy Still trading at pre-split price. Am confounded. Anyone with an idea why? Thanks in advance. There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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It traded at 50 today "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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murchr wrote:It traded at 50 today Yeah, and demand outweighed supply. I thought the excitement of the split was baked in the presplit price and the price would go down, but it too early anyway. There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:When was that dyer & blair report done and what is their Target Price. Below is what SIB has said today:
ARM’s 9month profit before tax and unrealized losses up 18.1%y/y; group revenue up 28.9%y/y. ARM Cement Limited (formerly Athi River Mining Limited) released 9month performance figures (period ended 30 September) marking 28.9%y/y growth in revenue and EPS of KES 8.34 (excluding unrealized foreign currency movements, EPS was up 18.1%y/y). On q/q basis, revenue was up 14.3% while PBT before forex movement declined 3.4%). EBITDA margin slipped to 24.1% from 26.3%. Overall, against our FY12 full year estimates, reported figures came in below expectation. On top line, our FY12 revenue excluding sales from the new Tanzania plant stands at KES 10.9bn, implying 17%q/q growth in 4Q12 (while we are comfortable with our FY12 Kenyan cement sales forecast of KES 8.1bn, we are inclined to cut our non-cement revenue estimates - borrowing from the 34%q/q drop in 2Q12). On Tanzania cement sales, ARM confirmed operations at the Dar es salaam 0.75mtpa grinding plant commenced in October. Based on guidance from management, our full year FY12 forecast included Tanzania sales starting July 2012. We had assumed total revenue of KES 2.2bn from volume sales of 0.2mtpa (this we are also inclined to cut). On margins we remain comfortable with our FY12 EBITDA margin estimate of 24.4%. Though we are on-course to revise our FY12 EPS estimate of KES 16.39 downward (on adjusted revenue estimates and increased borrowing costs) in our view ARM’s overall outlook remains positive. Based on our un-adjusted FY12 forecast figures, ARM currently trades at 10.9x EBITDA margin versus Bamburi’s 5x (FY12F). The current market price of KES 225 is 13.6% above our un-adjusted fair value of KES 194.42. (Company filling, Standard Investment Bank). The price has retraced from the all time highs of 245/- when it closed at 235 on Oct 11 2012. Today's action might see it close at 193/- which is 17.87% selloff from 235/-
If it closes at 193/- the trailing PE is still steep at 17.7
Based on the earnings reported so far EPS will likely clock KES 11.10 (assuming PAT clocks 1.1B), which implies forward PE at the current share price of 193 is 17.39. The counter is also pending a shares split and has a $50m convertible loan (Nigerian Africa Finance Corporation - AFC - and has the option to convert the debt into a stake equivalent to 13.6% of the cement firm) with a 268/- conversion price.
Comparing apples for apples, ARM is a better deal at the current price than Bamburi @182/- with shrinking profitability. As for dividends, definitely Bamburi offers more than ARM, but looking at capital gains vs dividend yield, ARM beats Bamburi hands down.
update - corrected trailing PE from 16.63 - 17.7 on trailing EPS of 10.9
268/5 = 53.60 post split. Intraday ARM is trading @56/- (280 reverse split price) with VWAP currently @55.50.
Are elections really being held this year?! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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Once i advised people to buy this stock pre split at 200 bob in November 2012 and i was castigated that splits make stock drop in price. now since then the stock has appreciated at about 33% after split. wanjiku views it as cheap not knowing that there are no fundamental changes material to the company. soon it will hit 60 - 70 bob range. Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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King G wrote:Once i advised people to buy this stock pre split at 200 bob in November 2012 and i was castigated that splits make stock drop in price. now since then the stock has appreciated at about 33% after split. wanjiku views it as cheap not knowing that there are no fundamental changes material to the company. soon it will hit 60 - 70 bob range. I definitely didnt see this coming. Do these people buying at 50 know what they are BUYING???? I give up on investors. anyway from the bear 2011 price of 145 its 100% profit at >56.00 ( reserve split 280) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:When was that dyer & blair report done and what is their Target Price. Below is what SIB has said today:
ARM’s 9month profit before tax and unrealized losses up 18.1%y/y; group revenue up 28.9%y/y. ARM Cement Limited (formerly Athi River Mining Limited) released 9month performance figures (period ended 30 September) marking 28.9%y/y growth in revenue and EPS of KES 8.34 (excluding unrealized foreign currency movements, EPS was up 18.1%y/y). On q/q basis, revenue was up 14.3% while PBT before forex movement declined 3.4%). EBITDA margin slipped to 24.1% from 26.3%. Overall, against our FY12 full year estimates, reported figures came in below expectation. On top line, our FY12 revenue excluding sales from the new Tanzania plant stands at KES 10.9bn, implying 17%q/q growth in 4Q12 (while we are comfortable with our FY12 Kenyan cement sales forecast of KES 8.1bn, we are inclined to cut our non-cement revenue estimates - borrowing from the 34%q/q drop in 2Q12). On Tanzania cement sales, ARM confirmed operations at the Dar es salaam 0.75mtpa grinding plant commenced in October. Based on guidance from management, our full year FY12 forecast included Tanzania sales starting July 2012. We had assumed total revenue of KES 2.2bn from volume sales of 0.2mtpa (this we are also inclined to cut). On margins we remain comfortable with our FY12 EBITDA margin estimate of 24.4%. Though we are on-course to revise our FY12 EPS estimate of KES 16.39 downward (on adjusted revenue estimates and increased borrowing costs) in our view ARM’s overall outlook remains positive. Based on our un-adjusted FY12 forecast figures, ARM currently trades at 10.9x EBITDA margin versus Bamburi’s 5x (FY12F). The current market price of KES 225 is 13.6% above our un-adjusted fair value of KES 194.42. (Company filling, Standard Investment Bank). The price has retraced from the all time highs of 245/- when it closed at 235 on Oct 11 2012. Today's action might see it close at 193/- which is 17.87% selloff from 235/-
If it closes at 193/- the trailing PE is still steep at 17.7
Based on the earnings reported so far EPS will likely clock KES 11.10 (assuming PAT clocks 1.1B), which implies forward PE at the current share price of 193 is 17.39. The counter is also pending a shares split and has a $50m convertible loan (Nigerian Africa Finance Corporation - AFC - and has the option to convert the debt into a stake equivalent to 13.6% of the cement firm) with a 268/- conversion price.
Comparing apples for apples, ARM is a better deal at the current price than Bamburi @182/- with shrinking profitability. As for dividends, definitely Bamburi offers more than ARM, but looking at capital gains vs dividend yield, ARM beats Bamburi hands down.
update - corrected trailing PE from 16.63 - 17.7 on trailing EPS of 10.9
268/5 = 53.60 post split. Intraday ARM is trading @56/- (280 reverse split price) with VWAP currently @55.50.
Are elections really being held this year?! Its madness on this counter!! The conversion of debt to shares... will it mean creation of new shares? if yes, this is further dilution of EPS meaning, even higher (astronomical) P/e. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Jamaneni......this counter is on really strong steroids, where is it heading to? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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murchr wrote:Jamaneni......this counter is on really strong steroids, where is it heading to? This counter threw fundamentals off the window. I am confused but enjoying the capital gains. There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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MoneyMonger wrote:murchr wrote:Jamaneni......this counter is on really strong steroids, where is it heading to? This counter threw fundamentals off the window. I am confused but enjoying the capital gains. For now the fundies are trumped! But in the next bear cycle, this one will take the VIP lift on the way down. Bullish extremes are not good during a selloff. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Some of this stocks are really overvalued take CFC trading on a PE of 15 TP will become KES148 upside of 135% from the current price.
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ARM Nine Month pre-tax profit jumps 304 percent
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