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TransCentury H1 2012 profit jumps six fold
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dave.kim
#21 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 10:25:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@h2s, the share is still expensive from a Price Earning Ratio perspective. However, the company has got lots of potential.

Wazuans, why is the diluted EPS (KES 0.57) higher than the basic EPS (KES 0.30). #H1 2012 results
oz of the Convertible Bond

I also wonder.As far as i know,dilutive securities reduces the eps
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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mwekez@ji
#22 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2012 12:53:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Valuation of TCL

Genghis Capital - LONG TERM BUY - TP KES 62.35 Link

Dyer & Blair - BUY - TP KES 68.10 Link

NIC - LONG TERM BUY - Recommendation made when the stock was listed at KES 50 Link

@the deal LONG TERM BUY recommendation at KES 20.50 Link

************************************

and this

Eurobond Conversion Price per underlying share:

Year 1 (upto 25.03.2012) - KES 40.00 per Share
Year 2 (upto 25.03.2013) - KES 42.40 per Share
Year 3 (upto 25.03.2014) - KES 44.80 per Share
Year 4 (upto 25.03.2015) - KES 47.20 per Share
Year 5 (upto 25.03.2016*)- KES 49.60 per Share

*Eurobond maturity date
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mwekez@ji
#23 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2012 1:19:59 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
At OTC, TCL was fairly active with the bulk of trades occurring at KES 40‐50. The modal weighted average price was at KES 45. Graph of OTC Trades starting Apr 2009 - Jun 2011
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the deal
#24 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2012 1:51:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
Valuation of TCL

Genghis Capital - LONG TERM BUY - TP KES 62.35 Link

Dyer & Blair - BUY - TP KES 68.10 Link

NIC - LONG TERM BUY - Recommendation made when the stock was listed at KES 50 Link

@the deal LONG TERM BUY recommendation at KES 20.50 Link

************************************



You see how one would have been screwed if he/she followed those
stockbroker recommendations...if one bought when Yours Truly was saying buy...you would be up 20%
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mwekez@ji
#25 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2012 2:25:48 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Valuation of TCL

Genghis Capital - LONG TERM BUY - TP KES 62.35 Link

Dyer & Blair - BUY - TP KES 68.10 Link

NIC - LONG TERM BUY - Recommendation made when the stock was listed at KES 50 Link

@the deal LONG TERM BUY recommendation at KES 20.50 Link

************************************



You see how one would have been screwed if he/she followed those
stockbroker recommendations...if one bought when Yours Truly was saying buy...you would be up 20%


@the deal, you are on point, what's your Target Price?
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hisah
#26 Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 7:27:34 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977


From the pattern, 15/- is very likely to be tested.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#27 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 8:20:09 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Kenya Railways begins search for RVR replacement - http://www.businessdaily.../-/q5e2ttz/-/index.html

Quote:
The parastatal’s six-year concession contract with Rift Valley Railways (RVR) expires in June next year.

Kenya Railways has contracted consultancy firm Deloitte East Africa to establish terms for the next concessionaire and determine whether RVR could be considered for another term or the concession should awarded to a third party.

Rift Valley Railways won a 25-year concession to run the 2,352km Kenya-Uganda railway in November 2006, but the passenger business covered five years of the contract and was extended by 21 months in 2008.

“We contracted Deloitte to do a study on how best to deal with passenger service and they should be finishing the report before December,” KR managing director Nduva Muli told the Business Daily on Wednesday.

“The consultant’s recommendations will approved by the board and government then we can progress to determine whether to maintain the current concessionaire or not.”

Six years since the granting of the concession, RVR’s performance has failed to live up to the expectation of Kenya and Uganda governments on what is attributed to the lack of financial and technical muscle on the side of the lead investor — Mr Roy Puffet of Sheltam.


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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sparkly
#28 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 8:36:35 AM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:


From the pattern, 15/- is very likely to be tested.


@hisah what will be the PE ratio at 15?
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hisah
#29 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:21:54 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:


From the pattern, 15/- is very likely to be tested.


@hisah what will be the PE ratio at 15?


VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:

@h2s, the share is still expensive from a Price Earning Ratio perspective. However, the company has got lots of potential.

Wazuans, why is the diluted EPS (KES 0.57) higher than the basic EPS (KES 0.30). #H1 2012 results
coz of the Convertible Bond



Working with the basic EPS and assuming H2 remains constant gives 1.14. At 15/- then the fwd P/E is 13.15. Still an expensive P/E going by the econ and the market average.

There you go. The convertible bond also makes things funky. You have to read the listing prospectus to see why or read some info here - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...px?g=posts&m=193812

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#30 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:32:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:


From the pattern, 15/- is very likely to be tested.


@hisah what will be the PE ratio at 15?


VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:

@h2s, the share is still expensive from a Price Earning Ratio perspective. However, the company has got lots of potential.

Wazuans, why is the diluted EPS (KES 0.57) higher than the basic EPS (KES 0.30). #H1 2012 results
coz of the Convertible Bond



Working with the basic EPS and assuming H2 remains constant gives 1.14. At 15/- then the fwd P/E is 13.15. Still an expensive P/E going by the econ and the market average.

There you go. The convertible bond also makes things funky. You have to read the listing prospectus to see why or read some info here - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...px?g=posts&m=193812



I like how the crap(in that its an expensive listing, company may be good) sediments over time on the NSE. Look at Longhorn findings its way to sub 10 slowly but surely, and how britak also sedimented. These reminders are good, lest we ever forget and be wary of listings.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#31 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:42:39 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@aguy - yep, the listing was packaged in a very rosy fashion and some brokers were hellbent on defending the lofty P/E of 38 at the listing price of 60/-

Wash, rinse, repeat until wanjiku learns the art of being discerning that's when the casino will stop...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#32 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 1:59:49 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
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Location: nairobi
http://af.reuters.com/ar...ws/idAFL5E8LF9H820121015
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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FUNKY
#33 Posted : Monday, October 15, 2012 2:42:32 PM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
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mwekez@ji
#34 Posted : Wednesday, October 17, 2012 6:15:51 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Valuation of TCL

Genghis Capital - LONG TERM BUY - TP KES 62.35 Link

Dyer & Blair - BUY - TP KES 68.10 Link

NIC - LONG TERM BUY - Recommendation made when the stock was listed at KES 50 Link

@the deal LONG TERM BUY recommendation at KES 20.50 Link

************************************



You see how one would have been screwed if he/she followed those
stockbroker recommendations...if one bought when Yours Truly was saying buy...you would be up 20%


@the deal, you are on point, what's your Target Price?


This counter is back to KES 20. What say you
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hisah
#35 Posted : Wednesday, October 17, 2012 6:27:15 PM
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I expect this thing to nosedive to 15/- The one year chart is bearish and momentum is on the sell side. Makes you wonder with all that 600% H1 2012 profit result, Mr Market is not one bit interested Not talking
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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itz
#36 Posted : Wednesday, October 17, 2012 6:40:51 PM
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Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
TCL was overvalued at 50 but around 20 which has been a floor for sometime the company can grow into the 50 valuation over the next few years.Some insiders(employees) +short term traders are getting impatient with the price action and they will keep offloading mostly to meet short term obligations.The big percentage of holders are mostly LT holders and that is why i dont see it going to 15 because the big guyz won't offload at this prices.
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hisah
#37 Posted : Friday, October 19, 2012 12:43:45 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Today 1M shares have already traded and VWAP currently stands @20.50/- Been a while since there was such a volume spike on this counter. Back in March huge volume supported 20/- and price spiked to 27/- where huge volume came in (June - sellside) and the price has tanked back to 20/-

If @itz you are right, then we should see the same game played again... But MACD and momentum are quite bearish and this is why I see it testing below 20/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#38 Posted : Wednesday, October 24, 2012 3:12:46 PM
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TCL has moved 1.65M shares today. If this volume spike is maintained, then 20/- may be supported negating my 15/- target. I wonder if the current volume is chasing the selling proceeds of that Tz tea firm by TCL on Jan 2013. Will TCL give a special div?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#39 Posted : Wednesday, October 24, 2012 4:20:26 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
I think transcentury will be hit hard by not accomplishing its intended projects in time.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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eggnest
#40 Posted : Sunday, December 30, 2012 1:35:42 PM
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