I knew I was talking to a trader...who in his trasversing is probably in a net-loss position. Lol!!

Cde, I wanted to avoid the extra work looking for those figures, especially when I am not looking at staying in the stock for too long, but I will look into it. I remember that the half year profitability figures were none too impressive.

@Mwanahisa. Do you have any long holdings? If yes, which ones.

Indeed I do. I hold KQ, Equity Bank, KCB, Jubilee, Centum, KK, Cititrust, WTK and Limuru Tea as my long positions.

I however lighten these positions whenever there is a ramp up in the price and I can foresee drops (read that as making an educated guess) even in those long term stocks. I then buy back my positions at lower prices whenever possible. Of all the above positions, the only ones I have not touched in a while are the AIMS as it is usually hard to get them back.

Besides these positions, I frequently trade speculatively on any opportunities that come about, with about 25% of my capital. I also ensure that I have at least 10-15% of my portfolio in cash at practically all times, unless the market is extremely bullish.

I will not pretend never to have lost money on my speculative trades, for I have and I am sure I will CONTINUE to do so. On the whole however, my success rate is higher than my losses. On my speculative positions, I am usually prepared to lose money. I am fairly ruthless in instituting stop loss levels but overall this has saved me bigger losses.

BTW @Cde, before 2008 I was a great believer in buy and hold but when the market changes I had to change with it. While I still believe in the long term story of the stock market, I do what I can to mitigate the impact of severe drops in the prices of even those counters that have the best of fundamentals.

Back to KenGen, their 2010-11 H1 commentary appears to bear you out in so far as power supply, especially the hydro position is concerned. I note that KenGen reported a 61% increase in unit sales between Dec 2009 and Dec 2010.

KIPEVU II, 120 MW; and Wellhead Technology, 5 MW were to be commissioned in March 2011. Tana additional 20 MW was also ready for commissioning in March. If all this came to pass, KenGen would certainly appear to have been able to supply more power in 2011 vis-a-vis 2010.

Of course, I have also noted that costs also increased significantly esp. due to additional depreciation and financing costs.

All said and done, it looks like the price may have dropped sufficiently for my short term play. The share has certainly been punished heavily.

Now where are the technicians to support/dispute my intuition? QW, Hisah, SPT come on!

Look for KGN's extended version of H1 results on the NSE website (hoping it is still there) and look at the cash-flow statement.

I reviewed all the material I could get on KenGen yesterday, including the PIBO prospectus. My verdict was that I am still unconvinced on KenGen joining my all star long term portfolio. But I will be happy to make some opportunistic money, on it all factors considered. My stop loss has been set at between 11.00 - 11.50, in case it bombs.

I have therefore plunged in this morning from a price of 11.90 but I will probably go all the way to 12. This is a fairly small play on my part but if I play it right, it should still be worth some nice cheddar.

Currently trading around IPO price :( price but I would defiantly put this stock on my watch list mostly due to the fact of the increased electrical demand the country is expecting to have and as someone mentioned earlier in a thread…the power of a carbon credit cheque.

Heres a link to a project they have failed to mention on the site:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5THThSuOPw - A wind farm to inject 300MW (or more) of power into the national grid. This plus projected 7k MW from geothermal plants in Rift Valley boils down to a fat annual carbon credit cheque thus improved earnings which should show in the share price but in this market who knows……..(just my 2 shillings worth)

Interesting to note that KPLC have already set up 2 wind turbines in the town and am sure will also be gunning for carbon credit points. Any correlation between KPLC and KENGEN????? (gave this a shot and the following graph came about: http://www.mystocks.co.ke/s25/20110722)