StatMeister wrote:the deal wrote:GoK Set to Defend it's stake in KQ
A.580 Million new shares will have to be created at Sh40 each
B. Number of issued shares will rise to 1.1 Billion
C. A right in the ratio of 1.2 for every 1 held wilk be held
Read entire article here
www.contrarianinvestingk...d-it-stake-in-kenya.html @Deal, it would have to be rounded off numbers, like 1:1 or 1:2
A ratio of 1.2:1 will produce odd lots if your shares are not multiple of 500
@ StatMeister: Thats correct, the rights issue will most probably avoid odd lots.
I have looked at the numbers and possible scenarios and have come up with the following scenario:
1. The government having set aside Ksh 5.5B in order to take up rights equivalent to its 23% shareholding in KQ means the rights will aim to raise about Ksh 23.9B (Kestrel Capital had put the figure at Ksh 22B ($ 250M)). From these two pieces of info, we can assume a target of between Ksh 22-24B. Treasury deputy director of economic affairs Henry Rotich was quoted as saying sitting out of the rights would dilute the GoK shareholding to below 10% (from current 23%). This shows the dilutional effect will be more than 130% for those who sit out.
2. The company currently has about 462M shares listed. At a price of 42, this adds up to capitalization of Ksh 19.4B. The rights will thus aim to raise more than the market capitalisation of KQ.
3. To raise say Ksh 23B, each current share will need to pay: Ksh 23B/0.462B = about Ksh 50.
4. Factoring in the need for shareholder incentive to pick up the rights, a more favourable ratio would be 1.5:1 thus a rights issue of 3 shares for every 2 shares held (3:2) through the creation of 700M new shares.
5. The rights shares could then be offered at a price of about Ksh 33 each (700m x 33 = Ksh 23.1B).
6. With the GoK already committing Ksh 5.5B and KLM almost certain to pick its rights worth about Ksh 6B, already Ksh 11.5B is assured (50% of rights target).
7. Opportunities similar to those during the KCB Rights offer will soon be available in KQ (To pick KQ shares at even cheaper prices than those currently prevailing).
Happy hunting