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The long bear
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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You guys are makin me laugh  are you even lookin at the volumes before you all start gettin excited.Can those weak volumes push these index higher.????No this index isnt goin anywhere.its a pure case of overbought /oversold i said again and again ans again in a bear in these market untill the year ends.....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:I've been saying it, this will be a great year at the n.s.e. Things wont go down as most expect I'm with you on this! I believe what you see is what you get. I see nothing but a "Huge Bull" not very far away. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I've been saying it, this will be a great year at the n.s.e. Things wont go down as most expect I'm with you on this! I believe what you see is what you get. I see nothing but a "Huge Bull" not very far away. Why dont the two of you be brave and give us a time line....then i am sure to laugh my ribs off !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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QW25071985 wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I've been saying it, this will be a great year at the n.s.e. Things wont go down as most expect I'm with you on this! I believe what you see is what you get. I see nothing but a "Huge Bull" not very far away. Why dont the two of you be brave and give us a time line....then i am sure to laugh my ribs off !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! @QW, i know you are big on speculation, perhaps the best speculator/risk taker we have at the NSE. Now how about some quick money on you....just pick some Uchumi on Tuesday next week and then sell by end of August, just 3 months away. I guarantee you some healthy returns, which you wont get in Access and Neveready A minimum of 30%. How about that? And am not the Yes No No Chair type! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Eagerly awaiting CBK's interest rate announcement kesho. Some banks are seriously underwater as of now due to the fact that they've been overweight on GoK paper... Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Totally agree...this is one hell of a long bear...just look @Ocampo being on a warpath...a successful 2012 will depend on weather Ocampo6 go to the hague or not...but it doesnt mean u should sell...just factor in the fact that the returns will be minimal...rmbr the foreign investors are highly liquid.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:QW25071985 wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I've been saying it, this will be a great year at the n.s.e. Things wont go down as most expect I'm with you on this! I believe what you see is what you get. I see nothing but a "Huge Bull" not very far away. Why dont the two of you be brave and give us a time line....then i am sure to laugh my ribs off !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! @QW, i know you are big on speculation, perhaps the best speculator/risk taker we have at the NSE. Now how about some quick money on you....just pick some Uchumi on Tuesday next week and then sell by end of August, just 3 months away. I guarantee you some healthy returns, which you wont get in Access and Neveready A minimum of 30%. How about that? And am not the Yes No No Chair type! neverready i never touched. i just dnt know why it was so much on my mind at the beginin of the year.. .Than goodness i didnt buy it...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mainat wrote:Eagerly awaiting CBK's interest rate announcement kesho. Some banks are seriously underwater as of now due to the fact that they've been overweight on GoK paper... I'm also waiting to see if the hike is 25bps or 50bps. I'd be shocked if CBR remains flat @ 6%.
The circus I'm reading online about the June 8th budget reading row confirms that all is 'rosy' for everyone - biz, gubberment funds, ksh & consumers. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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im not gonna label it bull or bear as most are so quick to do. All i mean is, there is money to be made this year. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Despite some moves north, NSE's equilibrium will be 4005 for until the other side of ze 2012 gen election. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,067 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Mainat wrote:Despite some moves north, NSE's equilibrium will be 4005 for until the other side of ze 2012 gen election. Specualators are advised to trade with caution at this period. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Mainat wrote:Despite some moves north, NSE's equilibrium will be 4005 for until the other side of ze 2012 gen election. The NSE20 is currently inches away from an oversold position, this has only happened once in 2011, the 10 period moving average crossed below the 50 period moving average last Friday signaling a bearish outlook...seriously the macroeconomic picture isnt helping but I expect us to bounce from here depending if banks report good 1H numbers.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Depending on where your money is..you can beat the pants off the NSE 20 this year. I.e via KCB, KK, Uchumi. I would like to be put on record for this. Thank you.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Depending on where your money is..you can beat the pants off the NSE 20 this year. I.e via KCB, KK, Uchumi. I would like to be put on record for this. Thank you. KCB has underperfomed the NSE20 for the past 4 years man despite all the RI...i was checking Thursday newspaper it had a billboard showing 2007 prices...KCB 32...Jub 180...Kk 85....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@deal. Good lesson in history.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Aguytrying wrote:im not gonna label it bull or bear as most are so quick to do. All i mean is, there is money to be made this year. my friend didn't you make cash from uchumi? More opportunities lie ahead, no matter if index up or index down. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Depending on where your money is..you can beat the pants off the NSE 20 this year. I.e via KCB, KK, Uchumi. I would like to be put on record for this. Thank you. Cde = put on record  GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Depending on where your money is..you can beat the pants off the NSE 20 this year. I.e via KCB, KK, Uchumi. I would like to be put on record for this. Thank you. Cde = put on record Gracias, gracias. I understand that you have one of the best memory banks on Wazua.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:Mainat wrote:Despite some moves north, NSE's equilibrium will be 4005 for until the other side of ze 2012 gen election. The NSE20 is currently inches away from an oversold position, this has only happened once in 2011, the 10 period moving average crossed below the 50 period moving average last Friday signaling a bearish outlook...seriously the macroeconomic picture isnt helping but I expect us to bounce from here depending if banks report good 1H numbers. Definitely the index will bounce from the oversell, but I'm not counting on banks. As @mainat states, the pivot for NSE is 4000 (was my target from the 4600 level selloff) and should remain so for months. As long as the 4200-4400 range is resistance, target remains 3000-3600 levels. And as @young states, speculators have to keep off...
Time to accumulate cheap bluechips especially industrials and banks for long term investors all the way to 2012. Then @guru will get her 5 year (15yr is too ambitious) bull run. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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The best bets as of now are: 1. Banks especially ones that deal with SMEs & Agriculturals & that saw a leap in their forex income in q1. Also ones whose recoveries ratio was or is up (Equity Bank). 2. TPS, due to weakening of the shilling & strengthening of the rand, Kenya is now deemed a cheaper tourist destination as compared to SA one of our strongest competitors. 3. Though govt has subsidized fertilizer & International tea & coffee prices are up, we don't deal in value addition & have no control on imported machineries & other oil based inputs prices thus a dilution of sorts in income of most of the Agriculturals even though the shilling is weak. 4. As for KPLC & or KQ they might be good hedging shares but KPLC has a political effect as election is beckoning & power prices is/will be an issue while with KQ it might go either way as all will be determined by the international oil prices in the near future. 'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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